What is mature and what is still emerging in the cryptocurrency market? ArXiv ID: 2305.05751 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In relation to the traditional financial markets, the cryptocurrency market is a recent invention and the trading dynamics of all its components are readily recorded and stored. This fact opens up a unique opportunity to follow the multidimensional trajectory of its development since inception up to the present time. Several main characteristics commonly recognized as financial stylized facts of mature markets were quantitatively studied here. In particular, it is shown that the return distributions, volatility clustering effects, and even temporal multifractal correlations for a few highest-capitalization cryptocurrencies largely follow those of the well-established financial markets. The smaller cryptocurrencies are somewhat deficient in this regard, however. They are also not as highly cross-correlated among themselves and with other financial markets as the large cryptocurrencies. Quite generally, the volume V impact on price changes R appears to be much stronger on the cryptocurrency market than in the mature stock markets, and scales as $R(V) \sim V^α$ with $α\gtrsim 1$. ...

A greedy algorithm for habit formation under multiplicative utility ArXiv ID: 2305.04748 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We consider the problem of optimizing lifetime consumption under a habit formation model, both with and without an exogenous pension. Unlike much of the existing literature, we apply a power utility to the ratio of consumption to habit, rather than to their difference. The martingale/duality method becomes intractable in this setting, so we develop a greedy version of this method that is solvable using Monte Carlo simulation. We investigate the behaviour of the greedy solution, and explore what parameter values make the greedy solution a good approximation to the optimal one. ...

Study on the Identification of Financial Risk Path Under the Digital Transformation of Enterprise Based on DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC ArXiv ID: 2305.04216 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Digital transformation challenges financial management while reducing costs and increasing efficiency for enterprises in various countries. Identifying the transmission paths of enterprise financial risks in the context of digital transformation is an urgent problem to be solved. This paper constructs a system of influencing factors of corporate financial risks in the new era through literature research. It proposes a path identification method of financial risks in the context of the digital transformation of enterprises based on DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC. This paper explores the intrinsic association among the influencing factors of corporate financial risks, identifies the key influencing factors, sorts out the hierarchical structure of the influencing factor system, and analyses the dependency and driving relationships among the factors in this system. The results show that: (1) The political and economic environment being not optimistic will limit the enterprise’s operating ability, thus directly leading to the change of the enterprise’s asset and liability structure and working capital stock. (2) The enterprise’s unreasonable talent training and incentive mechanism will limit the enterprise’s technological innovation ability and cause a shortage of digitally literate financial talents, which eventually leads to the vulnerability of the enterprise’s financial management. This study provides a theoretical reference for enterprises to develop risk management strategies and ideas for future academic research in digital finance. ...

Volatility of Volatility and Leverage Effect from Options ArXiv ID: 2305.04137 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We propose model-free (nonparametric) estimators of the volatility of volatility and leverage effect using high-frequency observations of short-dated options. At each point in time, we integrate available options into estimates of the conditional characteristic function of the price increment until the options’ expiration and we use these estimates to recover spot volatility. Our volatility of volatility estimator is then formed from the sample variance and first-order autocovariance of the spot volatility increments, with the latter correcting for the bias in the former due to option observation errors. The leverage effect estimator is the sample covariance between price increments and the estimated volatility increments. The rate of convergence of the estimators depends on the diffusive innovations in the latent volatility process as well as on the observation error in the options with strikes in the vicinity of the current spot price. Feasible inference is developed in a way that does not require prior knowledge of the source of estimation error that is asymptotically dominating. ...

Carbon Price Forecasting with Quantile Regression and Feature Selection ArXiv ID: 2305.03224 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Carbon futures has recently emerged as a novel financial asset in the trading markets such as the European Union and China. Monitoring the trend of the carbon price has become critical for both national policy-making as well as industrial manufacturing planning. However, various geopolitical, social, and economic factors can impose substantial influence on the carbon price. Due to its volatility and non-linearity, predicting accurate carbon prices is generally a difficult task. In this study, we propose to improve carbon price forecasting with several novel practices. First, we collect various influencing factors, including commodity prices, export volumes such as oil and natural gas, and prosperity indices. Then we select the most significant factors and disclose their optimal grouping for explainability. Finally, we use the Sparse Quantile Group Lasso and Adaptive Sparse Quantile Group Lasso for robust price predictions. We demonstrate through extensive experimental studies that our proposed methods outperform existing ones. Also, our quantile predictions provide a complete profile of future prices at different levels, which better describes the distributions of the carbon market. ...

Deep Learning for Solving and Estimating Dynamic Macro-Finance Models ArXiv ID: 2305.09783 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We develop a methodology that utilizes deep learning to simultaneously solve and estimate canonical continuous-time general equilibrium models in financial economics. We illustrate our method in two examples: (1) industrial dynamics of firms and (2) macroeconomic models with financial frictions. Through these applications, we illustrate the advantages of our method: generality, simultaneous solution and estimation, leveraging the state-of-art machine-learning techniques, and handling large state space. The method is versatile and can be applied to a vast variety of problems. ...

Estimating the impact of supply chain network contagion on financial stability ArXiv ID: 2305.04865 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Realistic credit risk assessment, the estimation of losses from counterparty’s failure, is central for the financial stability. Credit risk models focus on the financial conditions of borrowers and only marginally consider other risks from the real economy, supply chains in particular. Recent pandemics, geopolitical instabilities, and natural disasters demonstrated that supply chain shocks do contribute to large financial losses. Based on a unique nation-wide micro-dataset, containing practically all supply chain relations of all Hungarian firms, together with their bank loans, we estimate how firm-failures affect the supply chain network, leading to potentially additional firm defaults and additional financial losses. Within a multi-layer network framework we define a financial systemic risk index (FSRI) for every firm, quantifying these expected financial losses caused by its own- and all the secondary defaulting loans caused by supply chain network (SCN) shock propagation. We find a small fraction of firms carrying substantial financial systemic risk, affecting up to 16% of the banking system’s overall equity. These losses are predominantly caused by SCN contagion. For every bank we calculate the expected loss (EL), value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES), with and without accounting for SCN contagion. We find that SCN contagion amplifies the EL, VaR, and ES by a factor of 4.3, 4.5, and 3.2, respectively. These findings indicate that for a more complete picture of financial stability and realistic credit risk assessment, SCN contagion needs to be considered. This newly quantified contagion channel is of potential relevance for regulators’ future systemic risk assessments. ...

Mean-variance dynamic portfolio allocation with transaction costs: a Wiener chaos expansion approach ArXiv ID: 2305.16152 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper studies the multi-period mean-variance portfolio allocation problem with transaction costs. Many methods have been proposed these last years to challenge the famous uni-period Markowitz strategy.But these methods cannot integrate transaction costs or become computationally heavy and hardly applicable. In this paper, we try to tackle this allocation problem by proposing an innovative approach which relies on representing the set of admissible portfolios by a finite dimensional Wiener chaos expansion. This numerical method is able to find an optimal strategy for the allocation problem subject to transaction costs. To complete the study, the link between optimal portfolios submitted to transaction costs and the underlying risk aversion is investigated. Then a competitive and compliant benchmark based on the sequential uni-period Markowitz strategy is built to highlight the efficiency of our approach. ...

Not feeling the buzz: Correction study of mispricing and inefficiency in online sportsbooks ArXiv ID: 2306.01740 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We present a replication and correction of a recent article (Ramirez, P., Reade, J.J., Singleton, C., Betting on a buzz: Mispricing and inefficiency in online sportsbooks, International Journal of Forecasting, 39:3, 2023, pp. 1413-1423, doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.07.011). RRS measure profile page views on Wikipedia to generate a “buzz factor” metric for tennis players and show that it can be used to form a profitable gambling strategy by predicting bookmaker mispricing. Here, we use the same dataset as RRS to reproduce their results exactly, thus confirming the robustness of their mispricing claim. However, we discover that the published betting results are significantly affected by a single bet (the “Hercog” bet), which returns substantial outlier profits based on erroneously long odds. When this data quality issue is resolved, the majority of reported profits disappear and only one strategy, which bets on “competitive” matches, remains significantly profitable in the original out-of-sample period. While one profitable strategy offers weaker support than the original study, it still provides an indication that market inefficiencies may exist, as originally claimed by RRS. As an extension, we continue backtesting after 2020 on a cleaned dataset. Results show that (a) the “competitive” strategy generates no further profits, potentially suggesting markets have become more efficient, and (b) model coefficients estimated over this more recent period are no longer reliable predictors of bookmaker mispricing. We present this work as a case study demonstrating the importance of replication studies in sports forecasting, and the necessity to clean data. We open-source release comprehensive datasets and code. ...

Social Media as a Bank Run Catalyst ArXiv ID: ssrn-4422754 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract After the run on Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023, U.S. regional banks entered a period of significant distress. We quantify social media’s role in this Keywords: Silicon Valley Bank, Social media, Bank runs, Regional banks, Contagion Complexity vs Empirical Score Math Complexity: 3.0/10 Empirical Rigor: 8.0/10 Quadrant: Street Traders Why: The paper uses extensive Twitter data and robust econometric specifications (e.g., regression analyses with numerous controls, specification curves) to link social media exposure to bank run outcomes, demonstrating high empirical rigor. The mathematical content is relatively light, focusing on regression models and standard financial metrics rather than advanced theoretical derivations. flowchart TD A["Research Goal<br>Quantify social media's role<br>in SVB bank run"] --> B["Key Methodology<br>High-frequency data analysis"] B --> C["Data / Inputs<br>Social media volume & sentiment<br>Bank stock prices & CDS spreads"] C --> D["Computational Process<br>Causal inference & time-series<br>regression models"] D --> E["Key Findings<br>1. Social media predicts withdrawals<br>2. Amplifies deposit flight<br>3. Material impact on bank stability"]