PEARL: Private Equity Accessibility Reimagined with Liquidity ArXiv ID: 2510.23183 “View on arXiv” Authors: E. Benhamou, JJ. Ohana, B. Guez, E. Setrouk, T. Jacquot Abstract In this work, we introduce PEARL (Private Equity Accessibility Reimagined with Liquidity), an AI-powered framework designed to replicate and decode private equity funds using liquid, cost-effective assets. Relying on previous research methods such as Erik Stafford’s single stock selection (Stafford) and Thomson Reuters - Refinitiv’s sector approach (TR), our approach incorporates an additional asymmetry to capture the reduced volatility and better performance of private equity funds resulting from sale timing, leverage, and stock improvements through management changes. As a result, our model exhibits a strong correlation with well-established liquid benchmarks such as Stafford and TR, as well as listed private equity firms (Listed PE), while enhancing performance to better align with renowned quarterly private equity benchmarks like Cambridge Associates, Preqin, and Bloomberg Private Equity Fund indices. Empirical findings validate that our two-step approachdecoding liquid daily private equity proxies with a degree of negative return asymmetry outperforms the initial daily proxies and yields performance more consistent with quarterly private equity benchmarks. ...

Revisiting the Structure of Trend Premia: When Diversification Hides Redundancy ArXiv ID: 2510.23150 “View on arXiv” Authors: Alban Etienne, Jean-Jacques Ohana, Eric Benhamou, Béatrice Guez, Ethan Setrouk, Thomas Jacquot Abstract Recent work has emphasized the diversification benefits of combining trend signals across multiple horizons, with the medium-term window-typically six months to one year-long viewed as the “sweet spot” of trend-following. This paper revisits this conventional view by reallocating exposure dynamically across horizons using a Bayesian optimization framework designed to learn the optimal weights assigned to each trend horizon at the asset level. The common practice of equal weighting implicitly assumes that all assets benefit equally from all horizons; we show that this assumption is both theoretically and empirically suboptimal. We first optimize the horizon-level weights at the asset level to maximize the informativeness of trend signals before applying Bayesian graphical models-with sparsity and turnover control-to allocate dynamically across assets. The key finding is that the medium-term band contributes little incremental performance or diversification once short- and long-term components are included. Removing the 125-day layer improves Sharpe ratios and drawdown efficiency while maintaining benchmark correlation. We then rationalize this outcome through a minimum-variance formulation, showing that the medium-term horizon largely overlaps with its neighboring horizons. The resulting “barbell” structure-combining short- and long-term trends-captures most of the performance while reducing model complexity. This result challenges the common belief that more horizons always improve diversification and suggests that some forms of time-scale diversification may conceal unnecessary redundancy in trend premia. ...

Deviations from Tradition: Stylized Facts in the Era of DeFi ArXiv ID: 2510.22834 “View on arXiv” Authors: Daniele Maria Di Nosse, Federico Gatta, Fabrizio Lillo, Sebastian Jaimungal Abstract Decentralized Exchanges (DEXs) are now a significant component of the financial world where billions of dollars are traded daily. Differently from traditional markets, which are typically based on Limit Order Books, DEXs typically work as Automated Market Makers, and, since the implementation of Uniswap v3, feature concentrated liquidity. By investigating the twenty-four most active pools in Uniswap v3 during 2023 and 2024, we empirically study how this structural change in the organization of the markets modifies the well-studied stylized facts of prices, liquidity, and order flow observed in traditional markets. We find a series of new statistical regularities in the distributions and cross-autocorrelation functions of these variables that we are able to associate either with the market structure (e.g., the execution of orders in blocks) or with the intense activity of Maximal Extractable Value searchers, such as Just-in-Time liquidity providers and sandwich attackers. ...

TABL-ABM: A Hybrid Framework for Synthetic LOB Generation ArXiv ID: 2510.22685 “View on arXiv” Authors: Ollie Olby, Rory Baggott, Namid Stillman Abstract The recent application of deep learning models to financial trading has heightened the need for high fidelity financial time series data. This synthetic data can be used to supplement historical data to train large trading models. The state-of-the-art models for the generative application often rely on huge amounts of historical data and large, complicated models. These models range from autoregressive and diffusion-based models through to architecturally simpler models such as the temporal-attention bilinear layer. Agent-based approaches to modelling limit order book dynamics can also recreate trading activity through mechanistic models of trader behaviours. In this work, we demonstrate how a popular agent-based framework for simulating intraday trading activity, the Chiarella model, can be combined with one of the most performant deep learning models for forecasting multi-variate time series, the TABL model. This forecasting model is coupled to a simulation of a matching engine with a novel method for simulating deleted order flow. Our simulator gives us the ability to test the generative abilities of the forecasting model using stylised facts. Our results show that this methodology generates realistic price dynamics however, when analysing deeper, parts of the markets microstructure are not accurately recreated, highlighting the necessity for including more sophisticated agent behaviors into the modeling framework to help account for tail events. ...

Causal and Predictive Modeling of Short-Horizon Market Risk and Systematic Alpha Generation Using Hybrid Machine Learning Ensembles ArXiv ID: 2510.22348 “View on arXiv” Authors: Aryan Ranjan Abstract We present a systematic trading framework that forecasts short-horizon market risk, identifies its underlying drivers, and generates alpha using a hybrid machine learning ensemble built to trade on the resulting signal. The framework integrates neural networks with tree-based voting models to predict five-day drawdowns in the S&P 500 ETF, leveraging a cross-asset feature set spanning equities, fixed income, foreign exchange, commodities, and volatility markets. Interpretable feature attribution methods reveal the key macroeconomic and microstructural factors that differentiate high-risk (crash) from benign (non-crash) weekly regimes. Empirical results show a Sharpe ratio of 2.51 and an annualized CAPM alpha of +0.28, with a market beta of 0.51, indicating that the model delivers substantial systematic alpha with limited directional exposure during the 2005–2025 backtest period. Overall, the findings underscore the effectiveness of hybrid ensemble architectures in capturing nonlinear risk dynamics and identifying interpretable, potentially causal drivers, providing a robust blueprint for machine learning-driven alpha generation in systematic trading. ...

Right Place, Right Time: Market Simulation-based RL for Execution Optimisation ArXiv ID: 2510.22206 “View on arXiv” Authors: Ollie Olby, Andreea Bacalum, Rory Baggott, Namid Stillman Abstract Execution algorithms are vital to modern trading, they enable market participants to execute large orders while minimising market impact and transaction costs. As these algorithms grow more sophisticated, optimising them becomes increasingly challenging. In this work, we present a reinforcement learning (RL) framework for discovering optimal execution strategies, evaluated within a reactive agent-based market simulator. This simulator creates reactive order flow and allows us to decompose slippage into its constituent components: market impact and execution risk. We assess the RL agent’s performance using the efficient frontier based on work by Almgren and Chriss, measuring its ability to balance risk and cost. Results show that the RL-derived strategies consistently outperform baselines and operate near the efficient frontier, demonstrating a strong ability to optimise for risk and impact. These findings highlight the potential of reinforcement learning as a powerful tool in the trader’s toolkit. ...

Understanding Carbon Trade Dynamics: A European Union Emissions Trading System Perspective ArXiv ID: 2510.22341 “View on arXiv” Authors: Avirup Chakraborty Abstract The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), the worlds largest cap-and-trade carbon market, is central to EU climate policy. This study analyzes its efficiency, price behavior, and market structure from 2010 to 2020. Using an AR-GARCH framework, we find pronounced price clustering and short-term return predictability, with 60.05 percent directional accuracy and a 70.78 percent hit rate within forecast intervals. Network analysis of inter-country transactions shows a concentrated structure dominated by a few registries that control most high-value flows. Country-specific log-log regressions of price on traded quantity reveal heterogeneous and sometimes positive elasticities exceeding unity, implying that trading volumes often rise with prices. These results point to persistent inefficiencies in the EU ETS, including partial predictability, asymmetric market power, and unconventional price-volume relationships, suggesting that while the system contributes to decarbonization, its trading dynamics and price formation remain imperfect. ...

Goal-based portfolio selection with fixed transaction costs ArXiv ID: 2510.21650 “View on arXiv” Authors: Erhan Bayraktar, Bingyan Han, Jingjie Zhang Abstract We study a goal-based portfolio selection problem in which an investor aims to meet multiple financial goals, each with a specific deadline and target amount. Trading the stock incurs a strictly positive transaction cost. Using the stochastic Perron’s method, we show that the value function is the unique viscosity solution to a system of quasi-variational inequalities. The existence of an optimal trading strategy and goal funding scheme is established. Numerical results reveal complex optimal trading regions and show that the optimal investment strategy differs substantially from the V-shaped strategy observed in the frictionless case. ...

Hierarchical AI Multi-Agent Fundamental Investing: Evidence from China’s A-Share Market ArXiv ID: 2510.21147 “View on arXiv” Authors: Chujun He, Zhonghao Huang, Xiangguo Li, Ye Luo, Kewei Ma, Yuxuan Xiong, Xiaowei Zhang, Mingyang Zhao Abstract We present a multi-agent, AI-driven framework for fundamental investing that integrates macro indicators, industry-level and firm-specific information to construct optimized equity portfolios. The architecture comprises: (i) a Macro agent that dynamically screens and weights sectors based on evolving economic indicators and industry performance; (ii) four firm-level agents – Fundamental, Technical, Report, and News – that conduct in-depth analyses of individual firms to ensure both breadth and depth of coverage; (iii) a Portfolio agent that uses reinforcement learning to combine the agent outputs into a unified policy to generate the trading strategy; and (iv) a Risk Control agent that adjusts portfolio positions in response to market volatility. We evaluate the system on the constituents by the CSI 300 Index of China’s A-share market and find that it consistently outperforms standard benchmarks and a state-of-the-art multi-agent trading system on risk-adjusted returns and drawdown control. Our core contribution is a hierarchical multi-agent design that links top-down macro screening with bottom-up fundamental analysis, offering a robust and extensible approach to factor-based portfolio construction. ...

Branched Signature Model ArXiv ID: 2511.00018 “View on arXiv” Authors: Munawar Ali, Qi Feng Abstract In this paper, we introduce the branched signature model, motivated by the branched rough path framework of [“Gubinelli, Journal of Differential Equations, 248(4), 2010”], which generalizes the classical geometric rough path. We establish a universal approximation theorem for the branched signature model and demonstrate that iterative compositions of lower-level signature maps can approximate higher-level signatures. Furthermore, building on the existence of the extension map proposed in [“Hairer-Kelly. Annales de l’Institue Henri Poincaré, Probabilités et Statistiques 51, no. 1 (2015)”], we show how to explicitly construct the extension of the original paths into higher-dimensional spaces via a map $Ψ$, so that the branched signature can be realized as the classical geometric signature of the extended path. This framework not only provides an efficient computational scheme for branched signatures but also opens new avenues for data-driven modeling and applications. ...