Loss-Versus-Rebalancing under Deterministic and Generalized block-times ArXiv ID: 2505.05113 “View on arXiv” Authors: Alex Nezlobin, Martin Tassy Abstract Although modern blockchains almost universally produce blocks at fixed intervals, existing models still lack an analytical formula for the loss-versus-rebalancing (LVR) incurred by Automated Market Makers (AMMs) liquidity providers in this setting. Leveraging tools from random walk theory, we derive the following closed-form approximation for the per block per unit of liquidity expected LVR under constant block time: [" \overline{"\mathrm{ARB"}}= \frac{",σ_b^{2"}} {",2+\sqrt{2π"},γ/(|ζ(1/2)|,σ_b),}+O!\bigl(e^{"-\mathrm{const"}\tfracγ{“σ_b”}}\bigr);\approx; \frac{“σ_b^{2”}}{",2 + 1.7164,γ/σ_b"}, "] where $σ_b$ is the intra-block asset volatility, $γ$ the AMM spread and $ζ$ the Riemann Zeta function. Our large Monte Carlo simulations show that this formula is in fact quasi-exact across practical parameter ranges. Extending our analysis to arbitrary block-time distributions as well, we demonstrate both that–under every admissible inter-block law–the probability that a block carries an arbitrage trade converges to a universal limit, and that only constant block spacing attains the asymptotically minimal LVR. This shows that constant block intervals provide the best possible protection against arbitrage for liquidity providers. ...

Trading Under Uncertainty: A Distribution-Based Strategy for Futures Markets Using FutureQuant Transformer ArXiv ID: 2505.05595 “View on arXiv” Authors: Wenhao Guo, Yuda Wang, Zeqiao Huang, Changjiang Zhang, Shumin ma Abstract In the complex landscape of traditional futures trading, where vast data and variables like real-time Limit Order Books (LOB) complicate price predictions, we introduce the FutureQuant Transformer model, leveraging attention mechanisms to navigate these challenges. Unlike conventional models focused on point predictions, the FutureQuant model excels in forecasting the range and volatility of future prices, thus offering richer insights for trading strategies. Its ability to parse and learn from intricate market patterns allows for enhanced decision-making, significantly improving risk management and achieving a notable average gain of 0.1193% per 30-minute trade over state-of-the-art models with a simple algorithm using factors such as RSI, ATR, and Bollinger Bands. This innovation marks a substantial leap forward in predictive analytics within the volatile domain of futures trading. ...

Boosting Binomial Exotic Option Pricing with Tensor Networks ArXiv ID: 2505.17033 “View on arXiv” Authors: Maarten van Damme, Rishi Sreedhar, Martin Ganahl Abstract Pricing of exotic financial derivatives, such as Asian and multi-asset American basket options, poses significant challenges for standard numerical methods such as binomial trees or Monte Carlo methods. While the former often scales exponentially with the parameters of interest, the latter often requires expensive simulations to obtain sufficient statistical convergence. This work combines the binomial pricing method for options with tensor network techniques, specifically Matrix Product States (MPS), to overcome these challenges. Our proposed methods scale linearly with the parameters of interest and significantly reduce the computational complexity of pricing exotics compared to conventional methods. For Asian options, we present two methods: a tensor train cross approximation-based method for pricing, and a variational pricing method using MPS, which provides a stringent lower bound on option prices. For multi-asset American basket options, we combine the decoupled trees technique with the tensor train cross approximation to efficiently handle baskets of up to $m = 8$ correlated assets. All approaches scale linearly in the number of discretization steps $N$ for Asian options, and the number of assets $m$ for multi-asset options. Our numerical experiments underscore the high potential of tensor network methods as highly efficient simulation and optimization tools for financial engineering. ...

Systemic Risk in the European Insurance Sector ArXiv ID: 2505.02635 “View on arXiv” Authors: Giovanni Bonaccolto, Nicola Borri, Andrea Consiglio, Giorgio Di Giorgio Abstract This paper investigates the dynamic interdependencies between the European insurance sector and key financial markets-equity, bond, and banking-by extending the Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition framework to a broad set of performance and risk indicators. Our empirical analysis, based on a comprehensive dataset spanning January 2000 to October 2024, shows that the insurance market is not a passive receiver of external shocks but an active contributor in the propagation of systemic risk, particularly during periods of financial stress such as the subprime crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Significant heterogeneity is observed across subsectors, with diversified multiline insurers and reinsurance playing key roles in shock transmission. Moreover, our granular company-level analysis reveals clusters of systemically central insurance companies, underscoring the presence of a core group that consistently exhibits high interconnectivity and influence in risk propagation. ...

Why is the volatility of single stocks so much rougher than that of the S&P500? ArXiv ID: 2505.02678 “View on arXiv” Authors: Othmane Zarhali, Cecilia Aubrun, Emmanuel Bacry, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Jean-François Muzy Abstract The Nested factor model was introduced by Chicheportiche et al. to represent non-linear correlations between stocks. Stock returns are explained by a standard factor model, but the (log)-volatilities of factors and residuals are themselves decomposed into factor modes, with a common dominant volatility mode affecting both market and sector factors but also residuals. Here, we consider the case of a single factor where the only dominant log-volatility mode is rough, with a Hurst exponent $H \simeq 0.11$ and the log-volatility residuals are ‘‘super-rough’’ or ‘‘multifractal’’, with $H \simeq 0$. We demonstrate that such a construction naturally accounts for the somewhat surprising stylized fact reported by Wu et al. , where it has been observed that the Hurst exponents of stock indexes are large compared to those of individual stocks. We propose a statistical procedure to estimate the Hurst factor exponent from the stock returns dynamics together with theoretical guarantees of its consistency. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through numerical experiments and apply it to daily stock data from the S&P500 index. The estimated roughness exponents for both the factor and idiosyncratic components validate the assumptions underlying our model. ...

Heterogeneous Trader Responses to Macroeconomic Surprises: Simulating Order Flow Dynamics ArXiv ID: 2505.01962 “View on arXiv” Authors: Haochuan Wang Abstract Understanding how market participants react to shocks like scheduled macroeconomic news is crucial for both traders and policymakers. We develop a calibrated data generation process DGP that embeds four stylized trader archetypes retail, pension, institutional, and hedge funds into an extended CAPM augmented by CPI surprises. Each agents order size choice is driven by a softmax discrete choice rule over small, medium, and large trades, where utility depends on risk aversion, surprise magnitude, and liquidity. We aim to analyze each agent’s reaction to shocks and Monte Carlo experiments show that higher information, lower aversion agents take systematically larger positions and achieve higher average wealth. Retail investors under react on average, exhibiting smaller allocations and more dispersed outcomes. And ambient liquidity amplifies the sensitivity of order flow to surprise shocks. Our framework offers a transparent benchmark for analyzing order flow dynamics around macro releases and suggests how real time flow data could inform news impact inference. ...

Latent Variable Estimation in Bayesian Black-Litterman Models ArXiv ID: 2505.02185 “View on arXiv” Authors: Thomas Y. L. Lin, Jerry Yao-Chieh Hu, Paul W. Chiou, Peter Lin Abstract We revisit the Bayesian Black-Litterman (BL) portfolio model and remove its reliance on subjective investor views. Classical BL requires an investor “view”: a forecast vector $q$ and its uncertainty matrix $Ω$ that describe how much a chosen portfolio should outperform the market. Our key idea is to treat $(q,Ω)$ as latent variables and learn them from market data within a single Bayesian network. Consequently, the resulting posterior estimation admits closed-form expression, enabling fast inference and stable portfolio weights. Building on these, we propose two mechanisms to capture how features interact with returns: shared-latent parametrization and feature-influenced views; both recover classical BL and Markowitz portfolios as special cases. Empirically, on 30-year Dow-Jones and 20-year sector-ETF data, we improve Sharpe ratios by 50% and cut turnover by 55% relative to Markowitz and the index baselines. This work turns BL into a fully data-driven, view-free, and coherent Bayesian framework for portfolio optimization. ...

Mean Field Game of Optimal Tracking Portfolio ArXiv ID: 2505.01858 “View on arXiv” Authors: Lijun Bo, Yijie Huang, Xiang Yu Abstract This paper studies the mean field game (MFG) problem arising from a large population competition in fund management, featuring a new type of relative performance via the benchmark tracking constraint. In the n-agent model, each agent can strategically inject capital to ensure that the total wealth outperforms the benchmark process, which is modeled as a linear combination of the population’s average wealth process and a market index process. That is, each agent is concerned about the performance of her competitors captured by the floor constraint. With a continuum of agents, we formulate the constrained MFG problem and transform it into an equivalent unconstrained MFG problem with a reflected state process. We establish the existence of the mean field equilibrium (MFE) using the partial differential equation (PDE) approach. Firstly, by applying the dual transform, the best response control of the representative agent can be characterized in analytical form in terms of a dual reflected diffusion process. As a novel contribution, we verify the consistency condition of the MFE in separated domains with the help of the duality relationship and properties of the dual process. ...

Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network Models in Asset Pricing: An Empirical Study on Large-Cap US Stocks ArXiv ID: 2505.01921 “View on arXiv” Authors: Shanyan Lai Abstract In this study, MLP models with dynamic structure are applied to factor models for asset pricing tasks. Concretely, the MLP pyramid model structure was employed on firm-characteristic-sorted portfolio factors for modelling the large-capital US stocks. It was further developed as a practicable factor investing strategy based on the predictions. The main findings in this chapter were evaluated from two angles: model performance and investing performance, which were compared from the periods with and without COVID-19. The empirical results indicated that with the restrictions of the data size, the MLP models no longer perform “deeper, better”, while the proposed MLP models with two and three hidden layers have higher flexibility to model the factors in this case. This study also verified the idea of previous works that MLP models for factor investing have more meaning in the downside risk control than in pursuing the absolute annual returns. ...

Asset Pricing in Pre-trained Transformer ArXiv ID: 2505.01575 “View on arXiv” Authors: Shanyan Lai Abstract This paper proposes an innovative Transformer model, Single-directional representative from Transformer (SERT), for US large capital stock pricing. It also innovatively applies the pre-trained Transformer models under the stock pricing and factor investment context. They are compared with standard Transformer models and encoder-only Transformer models in three periods covering the entire COVID-19 pandemic to examine the model adaptivity and suitability during the extreme market fluctuations. Namely, pre-COVID-19 period (mild up-trend), COVID-19 period (sharp up-trend with deep down shock) and 1-year post-COVID-19 (high fluctuation sideways movement). The best proposed SERT model achieves the highest out-of-sample R2, 11.2% and 10.91% respectively, when extreme market fluctuation takes place followed by pre-trained Transformer models (10.38% and 9.15%). Their Trend-following-based strategy wise performance also proves their excellent capability for hedging downside risks during market shocks. The proposed SERT model achieves a Sortino ratio 47% higher than the buy-and-hold benchmark in the equal-weighted portfolio and 28% higher in the value-weighted portfolio when the pandemic period is attended. It proves that Transformer models have a great capability to capture patterns of temporal sparsity data in the asset pricing factor model, especially with considerable volatilities. We also find the softmax signal filter as the common configuration of Transformer models in alternative contexts, which only eliminates differences between models, but does not improve strategy-wise performance, while increasing attention heads improve the model performance insignificantly and applying the ’layer norm first’ method do not boost the model performance in our case. ...