Better market Maker Algorithm to Save Impermanent Loss with High Liquidity Retention ArXiv ID: 2502.20001 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Decentralized exchanges (DEXs) face persistent challenges in liquidity retention and user engagement due to inefficiencies in conventional automated market maker (AMM) designs. This work proposes a dual-mechanism framework to address these limitations: a ``Better Market Maker (BMM)’’, which is a liquidity-optimized AMM based on a power-law invariant ($X^nY = K$, $n = 4$), and a dynamic rebate system (DRS) for redistributing transaction fees. The segment-specific BMM reduces impermanent loss by 36% compared to traditional constant-product ($XY = K$) models, while retaining 3.98x more liquidity during price volatility. The DRS allocates fees ($γV$, $γ\in {“0.003, 0.005, 0.01"}$) with a rebate ratio $ρ\in [“0.3, 0.4”]$ to incentivize trader participation and maintain continuous capital injection. Simulations under high-volatility conditions demonstrate impermanent loss reductions of 36.0% and 40% higher user engagement compared to static fee models. By segmenting markets into high-, mid-, and low-volatility regimes, the framework achieves liquidity depth comparable to centralized exchanges (CEXs) while maintaining decentralized governance and retaining value within the cryptocurrency ecosystem. ...

BiHRNN – Bi-Directional Hierarchical Recurrent Neural Network for Inflation Forecasting ArXiv ID: 2503.01893 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Inflation prediction guides decisions on interest rates, investments, and wages, playing a key role in economic stability. Yet accurate forecasting is challenging due to dynamic factors and the layered structure of the Consumer Price Index, which organizes goods and services into multiple categories. We propose the Bi-directional Hierarchical Recurrent Neural Network (BiHRNN) model to address these challenges by leveraging the hierarchical structure to enable bidirectional information flow between levels. Informative constraints on the RNN parameters enhance predictive accuracy at all levels without the inefficiencies of a unified model. We validated BiHRNN on inflation datasets from the United States, Canada, and Norway by training, tuning hyperparameters, and experimenting with various loss functions. Our results demonstrate that BiHRNN significantly outperforms traditional RNN models, with its bidirectional architecture playing a pivotal role in achieving improved forecasting accuracy. ...

Detecting Crypto Pump-and-Dump Schemes: A Thresholding-Based Approach to Handling Market Noise ArXiv ID: 2503.08692 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We propose a simple yet robust unsupervised model to detect pump-and-dump events on tokens listed on the Poloniex Exchange platform. By combining threshold-based criteria with exponentially weighted moving averages (EWMA) and volatility measures, our approach effectively distinguishes genuine anomalies from minor trading fluctuations, even for tokens with low liquidity and prolonged inactivity. These characteristics present a unique challenge, as standard anomaly-detection methods often over-flag negligible volume spikes. Our framework overcomes this issue by tailoring both price and volume thresholds to the specific trading patterns observed, resulting in a model that balances high true-positive detection with minimal noise. ...

Corporate Fraud Detection in Rich-yet-Noisy Financial Graph ArXiv ID: 2502.19305 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Corporate fraud detection aims to automatically recognize companies that conduct wrongful activities such as fraudulent financial statements or illegal insider trading. Previous learning-based methods fail to effectively integrate rich interactions in the company network. To close this gap, we collect 18-year financial records in China to form three graph datasets with fraud labels. We analyze the characteristics of the financial graphs, highlighting two pronounced issues: (1) information overload: the dominance of (noisy) non-company nodes over company nodes hinders the message-passing process in Graph Convolution Networks (GCN); and (2) hidden fraud: there exists a large percentage of possible undetected violations in the collected data. The hidden fraud problem will introduce noisy labels in the training dataset and compromise fraud detection results. To handle such challenges, we propose a novel graph-based method, namely, Knowledge-enhanced GCN with Robust Two-stage Learning (${"\rm KeGCN"}{“R”}$), which leverages Knowledge Graph Embeddings to mitigate the information overload and effectively learns rich representations. The proposed model adopts a two-stage learning method to enhance robustness against hidden frauds. Extensive experimental results not only confirm the importance of interactions but also show the superiority of ${"\rm KeGCN"}{“R”}$ over a number of strong baselines in terms of fraud detection effectiveness and robustness. ...

Framework for asset-liability management with fixed-term securities ArXiv ID: 2502.19213 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We consider an optimal investment-consumption problem for a utility-maximizing investor who has access to assets with different liquidity and whose consumption rate as well as terminal wealth are subject to lower-bound constraints. Assuming utility functions that satisfy standard conditions, we develop a methodology for deriving the optimal strategies in semi-closed form. Our methodology is based on the generalized martingale approach and the decomposition of the problem into subproblems. We illustrate our approach by deriving explicit formulas for agents with power-utility functions and discuss potential extensions of the proposed framework. In numerical studies, we substantiate how the parameters of our framework impact the optimal proportion of initial capital allocated to the illiquid asset, the monetary value that the investor subjectively assigns to the fixed-term asset, and the potential of the illiquid asset to increase terminal the terminal value of liabilities without loss in the investor’s expected utility. ...

Adaptive Nesterov Accelerated Distributional Deep Hedging for Efficient Volatility Risk Management ArXiv ID: 2502.17777 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In the field of financial derivatives trading, managing volatility risk is crucial for protecting investment portfolios from market changes. Traditional Vega hedging strategies, which often rely on basic and rule-based models, are hard to adapt well to rapidly changing market conditions. We introduce a new framework for dynamic Vega hedging, the Adaptive Nesterov Accelerated Distributional Deep Hedging (ANADDH), which combines distributional reinforcement learning with a tailored design based on adaptive Nesterov acceleration. This approach improves the learning process in complex financial environments by modeling the hedging efficiency distribution, providing a more accurate and responsive hedging strategy. The design of adaptive Nesterov acceleration refines gradient momentum adjustments, significantly enhancing the stability and speed of convergence of the model. Through empirical analysis and comparisons, our method demonstrates substantial performance gains over existing hedging techniques. Our results confirm that this innovative combination of distributional reinforcement learning with the proposed optimization techniques improves financial risk management and highlights the practical benefits of implementing advanced neural network architectures in the finance sector. ...

Agent Trading Arena: A Study on Numerical Understanding in LLM-Based Agents ArXiv ID: 2502.17967 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in natural language tasks, yet their performance in dynamic, real-world financial environments remains underexplored. Existing approaches are limited to historical backtesting, where trading actions cannot influence market prices and agents train only on static data. To address this limitation, we present the Agent Trading Arena, a virtual zero-sum stock market in which LLM-based agents engage in competitive multi-agent trading and directly impact price dynamics. By simulating realistic bid-ask interactions, our platform enables training in scenarios that closely mirror live markets, thereby narrowing the gap between training and evaluation. Experiments reveal that LLMs struggle with numerical reasoning when given plain-text data, often overfitting to local patterns and recent values. In contrast, chart-based visualizations significantly enhance both numerical reasoning and trading performance. Furthermore, incorporating a reflection module yields additional improvements, especially with visual inputs. Evaluations on NASDAQ and CSI datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method, particularly under high volatility. All code and data are available at https://github.com/wekjsdvnm/Agent-Trading-Arena. ...

Dynamic Factor Model-Based Multiperiod Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection with Portfolio Constraints ArXiv ID: 2502.17915 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Motivated by practical applications, we explore the constrained multi-period mean-variance portfolio selection problem within a market characterized by a dynamic factor model. This model captures predictability in asset returns driven by state variables and incorporates cone-type portfolio constraints that are crucial in practice. The model is broad enough to encompass various dynamic factor frameworks, including practical considerations such as no-short-selling and cardinality constraints. We derive a semi-analytical optimal solution using dynamic programming, revealing it as a piecewise linear feedback policy to wealth, with all factors embedded within the allocation vectors. Additionally, we demonstrate that the portfolio policies are determined by two specific stochastic processes resulting from the stochastic optimizations, for which we provide detailed algorithms. These processes reflect the investor’s assessment of future investment opportunities and play a crucial role in characterizing the time consistency and efficiency of the optimal policy through the variance-optimal signed supermartingale measure of the market. We present numerical examples that illustrate the model’s application in various settings. Using real market data, we investigate how the factors influence portfolio policies and demonstrate that incorporating the factor structure may enhance out-of-sample performance. ...

Recurrent Neural Networks for Dynamic VWAP Execution: Adaptive Trading Strategies with Temporal Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks ArXiv ID: 2502.18177 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The execution of Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) orders remains a critical challenge in modern financial markets, particularly as trading volumes and market complexity continue to increase. In my previous work arXiv:2502.13722, I introduced a novel deep learning approach that demonstrated significant improvements over traditional VWAP execution methods by directly optimizing the execution problem rather than relying on volume curve predictions. However, that model was static because it employed the fully linear approach described in arXiv:2410.21448, which is not designed for dynamic adjustment. This paper extends that foundation by developing a dynamic neural VWAP framework that adapts to evolving market conditions in real time. We introduce two key innovations: first, the integration of recurrent neural networks to capture complex temporal dependencies in market dynamics, and second, a sophisticated dynamic adjustment mechanism that continuously optimizes execution decisions based on market feedback. The empirical analysis, conducted across five major cryptocurrency markets, demonstrates that this dynamic approach achieves substantial improvements over both traditional methods and our previous static implementation, with execution performance gains of 10 to 15% in liquid markets and consistent outperformance across varying conditions. These results suggest that adaptive neural architectures can effectively address the challenges of modern VWAP execution while maintaining computational efficiency suitable for practical deployment. ...

The Market Maker’s Dilemma: Navigating the Fill Probability vs. Post-Fill Returns Trade-Off ArXiv ID: 2502.18625 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Using data from a live trading experiment on the Binance Bitcoin perpetual, we examine the effects of (i) basic order book mechanics and (ii) the persistence of price changes from immediate to short timescales, revealing the interplay between returns, queue sizes, and orders’ queue positions. We document a fundamental trade-off: a negative correlation between maker fill likelihood and post-fill returns. This dictates that viable maker strategies often require a contrarian approach, counter-trading the prevailing order book imbalance. These dynamics render commonly-cited strategies highly unprofitable, leading us to model `Reversals’: situations where a contrarian maker strategy at the touch proves effective. ...