Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)

Agent-based Liquidity Risk Modelling for Financial Markets ArXiv ID: 2505.15296 “View on arXiv” Authors: Perukrishnen Vytelingum, Rory Baggott, Namid Stillman, Jianfei Zhang, Dingqiu Zhu, Tao Chen, Justin Lyon Abstract In this paper, we describe a novel agent-based approach for modelling the transaction cost of buying or selling an asset in financial markets, e.g., to liquidate a large position as a result of a margin call to meet financial obligations. The simple act of buying or selling in the market causes a price impact and there is a cost described as liquidity risk. For example, when selling a large order, there is market slippage – each successive trade will execute at the same or worse price. When the market adjusts to the new information revealed by the execution of such a large order, we observe in the data a permanent price impact that can be attributed to the change in the fundamental value as market participants reassess the value of the asset. In our ABM model, we introduce a novel mechanism where traders assume orderflow is informed and each trade reveals some information about the value of the asset, and traders update their belief of the fundamental value for every trade. The result is emergent, realistic price impact without oversimplifying the problem as most stylised models do, but within a realistic framework that models the exchange with its protocols, its limit orderbook and its auction mechanism and that can calculate the transaction cost of any execution strategy without limitation. Our stochastic ABM model calculates the costs and uncertainties of buying and selling in a market by running Monte-Carlo simulations, for a better understanding of liquidity risk and can be used to optimise for optimal execution under liquidity risk. We demonstrate its practical application in the real world by calculating the liquidity risk for the Hang-Seng Futures Index. ...

Simulating Liquidity: Agent-Based Modeling of Illiquid Markets for Fractional Ownership ArXiv ID: 2411.13381 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This research investigates liquidity dynamics in fractional ownership markets, focusing on illiquid alternative investments traded on a FinTech platform. By leveraging empirical data and employing agent-based modeling (ABM), the study simulates trading behaviors in sell offer-driven systems, providing a foundation for generating insights into how different market structures influence liquidity. The ABM-based simulation model provides a data augmentation environment which allows for the exploration of diverse trading architectures and rules, offering an alternative to direct experimentation. This approach bridges academic theory and practical application, supported by collaboration with industry and Swiss federal funding. The paper lays the foundation for planned extensions, including the identification of a liquidity-maximizing trading environment and the design of a market maker, by simulating the current functioning of the investment platform using an ABM specified with empirical data. ...

Tasks Makyth Models: Machine Learning Assisted Surrogates for Tipping Points ArXiv ID: 2309.14334 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We present a machine learning (ML)-assisted framework bridging manifold learning, neural networks, Gaussian processes, and Equation-Free multiscale modeling, for (a) detecting tipping points in the emergent behavior of complex systems, and (b) characterizing probabilities of rare events (here, catastrophic shifts) near them. Our illustrative example is an event-driven, stochastic agent-based model (ABM) describing the mimetic behavior of traders in a simple financial market. Given high-dimensional spatiotemporal data – generated by the stochastic ABM – we construct reduced-order models for the emergent dynamics at different scales: (a) mesoscopic Integro-Partial Differential Equations (IPDEs); and (b) mean-field-type Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) embedded in a low-dimensional latent space, targeted to the neighborhood of the tipping point. We contrast the uses of the different models and the effort involved in learning them. ...