Algorithmic Strategy

Performative Market Making ArXiv ID: 2508.04344 “View on arXiv” Authors: Charalampos Kleitsikas, Stefanos Leonardos, Carmine Ventre Abstract Financial models do not merely analyse markets, but actively shape them. This effect, known as performativity, describes how financial theories and the subsequent actions based on them influence market processes, by creating self-fulfilling prophecies. Although discussed in the literature on economic sociology, this deeply rooted phenomenon lacks mathematical formulation in financial markets. Our paper closes this gap by breaking down the canonical separation of diffusion processes between the description of the market environment and the financial model. We do that by embedding the model in the process itself, creating a closed feedback loop, and demonstrate how prices change towards greater conformity to the prevailing financial model used in the market. We further show, with closed-form solutions and machine learning, how a performative market maker can reverse engineer the current dominant strategies in the market and effectively arbitrage them while maintaining competitive quotes and superior P&L. ...

Parrondo’s effects with aperiodic protocols ArXiv ID: 2410.02987 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In this work, we study the effectiveness of employing archetypal aperiodic sequencing – namely Fibonacci, Thue-Morse, and Rudin-Shapiro – on the Parrondian effect. From a capital gain perspective, our results show that these series do yield a Parrondo’s Paradox with the Thue-Morse based strategy outperforming not only the other two aperiodic strategies but benchmark Parrondian games with random and periodical ($AABBAABB\ldots$) switching as well. The least performing of the three aperiodic strategies is the Rudin-Shapiro. To elucidate the underlying causes of these results, we analyze the cross-correlation between the capital generated by the switching protocols and that of the isolated losing games. This analysis reveals that a strong anticorrelation with both isolated games is typically required to achieve a robust manifestation of Parrondo’s effect. We also study the influence of the sequencing on the capital using the lacunarity and persistence measures. In general, we observe that the switching protocols tend to become less performing in terms of the capital as one increases the persistence and thus approaches the features of an isolated losing game. For the (log-)lacunarity, a property related to heterogeneity, we notice that for small persistence (less than 0.5) the performance increases with the lacunarity with a maximum around 0.4. In respect of this, our work shows that the optimization of a switching protocol is strongly dependent on a fine-tuning between persistence and heterogeneity. ...

Adaptive Money Market Interest Rate Strategy Utilizing Control Theory ArXiv ID: 2407.10426 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Decentralized Finance (DeFi) money markets have seen explosive growth in recent years, with billions of dollars borrowed in various cryptocurrency assets. Key to the safety of money markets is the implementation of interest rates that determine the cost of borrowing, and govern counterparty exposure and return. In traditional markets, interest rates are set by risk managers, portfolio managers, the Federal Reserve, and a myriad of other sources depending on the market function. DeFi enables an algorithmic approach that typically relies on interest rates being directly dependent on market utilization. The benefit of algorithmic interest rate management is the system’s continual response to market behaviors in real time, and thus an inherent ability to mitigate risks on behalf of protocols and users. These interest rate strategies target an optimal utilization based on the protocol’s risk threshold, but historically lack the ability to compensate for excessive or diminished utilization over time. This research investigates contemporary DeFi interest rate management strategies and their limitations. Furthermore, this paper introduces a time-weighted approach to interest rate management that implements a Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) control system to constantly adapt to market utilization patterns, addressing observed limitations. ...

On a fundamental statistical edge principle ArXiv ID: 2404.14252 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper establishes that conditioning the probability of execution of new orders on the self-generated historical trading information (HTI) of a trading strategy is a necessary condition for a statistical trading edge. It is shown, in particular, that, given any trading strategy S that does not use its own HTI, it is always possible to construct a new strategy S* that yields a systematically increasing improvement over S in terms of profit and loss (PnL) by using the self-generated HTI. This holds true under rather general conditions that are frequently met in practice, and it is proven through a decision mechanism specifically designed to formally prove this idea. Simulations and real-world trading evidence are included for validation and illustration, respectively. ...