Arbitrage

Trading on Terror? ArXiv ID: ssrn-4652027 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Recent scholarship shows that informed traders increasingly disguise trades in economically linked securities such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Linking that Keywords: Informed Trading, Market Microstructure, ETFs, Information Asymmetry, Arbitrage, Equities Complexity vs Empirical Score Math Complexity: 1.5/10 Empirical Rigor: 8.0/10 Quadrant: Street Traders Why: The paper relies on statistical event studies and rank-order analysis rather than advanced mathematical modeling, placing it at the lower end of math complexity; however, it employs high-quality financial data (FINRA, TASE, SEC) and robust empirical methods (placebo tests, counterfactuals, statistical significance thresholds) to analyze real-world trading patterns, warranting high empirical rigor. flowchart TD A["Research Goal: How do informed traders disguise<br>trading in securities linked to terror events?"] --> B["Method: Event Study &<br>Multi-Asset Analysis"] B --> C["Data: Global Terror Events &<br>Equity/ETF Transaction Data"] C --> D["Process: Identify Abnormal Trading<br>in Linked Securities vs. Equities"] D --> E["Analysis: Cross-Sectional Regressions<br>controlling for Arbitrage Constraints"] E --> F["Finding: Increased informed trading<br>in linked ETFs during terror events"] F --> G["Outcome: Displacement of<br>information asymmetry via market linking"]

Equilibrium Liquidity and Risk Offsetting in Decentralised Markets ArXiv ID: 2512.19838 “View on arXiv” Authors: Fayçal Drissi, Xuchen Wu, Sebastian Jaimungal Abstract We develop an economic model of decentralised exchanges (DEXs) in which risk-averse liquidity providers (LPs) manage risk in a centralised exchange (CEX) based on preferences, information, and trading costs. Rational, risk-averse LPs anticipate the frictions associated with replication and manage risk primarily by reducing the reserves supplied to the DEX. Greater aversion reduces the equilibrium viability of liquidity provision, resulting in thinner markets and lower trading volumes. Greater uninformed demand supports deeper liquidity, whereas higher fundamental price volatility erodes it. Finally, while moderate anticipated price changes can improve LP performance, larger changes require more intensive trading in the CEX, generate higher replication costs, and induce LPs to reduce liquidity supply. ...

Unwitting Markowitz’ Simplification of Portfolio Random Returns ArXiv ID: 2508.08148 “View on arXiv” Authors: Victor Olkhov Abstract In his famous paper, Markowitz (1952) derived the dependence of portfolio random returns on the random returns of its securities. This result allowed Markowitz to obtain his famous expression for portfolio variance. We show that Markowitz’s equation for portfolio random returns and the expression for portfolio variance, which results from it, describe a simplified approximation of the real markets when the volumes of all consecutive trades with the securities are assumed to be constant during the averaging interval. To show this, we consider the investor who doesn’t trade shares of securities of his portfolio. The investor only observes the trades made in the market with his securities and derives the time series that model the trades with his portfolio as with a single security. These time series describe the portfolio return and variance in exactly the same way as the time series of trades with securities describe their returns and variances. The portfolio time series reveal the dependence of portfolio random returns on the random returns of securities and on the ratio of the random volumes of trades with the securities to the random volumes of trades with the portfolio. If we assume that all volumes of the consecutive trades with securities are constant, obtain Markowitz’s equation for the portfolio’s random returns. The market-based variance of the portfolio accounts for the effects of random fluctuations of the volumes of the consecutive trades. The use of Markowitz variance may give significantly higher or lower estimates than market-based portfolio variance. ...

Performative Market Making ArXiv ID: 2508.04344 “View on arXiv” Authors: Charalampos Kleitsikas, Stefanos Leonardos, Carmine Ventre Abstract Financial models do not merely analyse markets, but actively shape them. This effect, known as performativity, describes how financial theories and the subsequent actions based on them influence market processes, by creating self-fulfilling prophecies. Although discussed in the literature on economic sociology, this deeply rooted phenomenon lacks mathematical formulation in financial markets. Our paper closes this gap by breaking down the canonical separation of diffusion processes between the description of the market environment and the financial model. We do that by embedding the model in the process itself, creating a closed feedback loop, and demonstrate how prices change towards greater conformity to the prevailing financial model used in the market. We further show, with closed-form solutions and machine learning, how a performative market maker can reverse engineer the current dominant strategies in the market and effectively arbitrage them while maintaining competitive quotes and superior P&L. ...

Measuring CEX-DEX Extracted Value and Searcher Profitability: The Darkest of the MEV Dark Forest ArXiv ID: 2507.13023 “View on arXiv” Authors: Fei Wu, Danning Sui, Thomas Thiery, Mallesh Pai Abstract This paper provides a comprehensive empirical analysis of the economics and dynamics behind arbitrages between centralized and decentralized exchanges (CEX-DEX) on Ethereum. We refine heuristics to identify arbitrage transactions from on-chain data and introduce a robust empirical framework to estimate arbitrage revenue without knowing traders’ actual behaviors on CEX. Leveraging an extensive dataset spanning 19 months from August 2023 to March 2025, we estimate a total of 233.8M USD extracted by 19 major CEX-DEX searchers from 7,203,560 identified CEX-DEX arbitrages. Our analysis reveals increasing centralization trends as three searchers captured three-quarters of both volume and extracted value. We also demonstrate that searchers’ profitability is tied to their integration level with block builders and uncover exclusive searcher-builder relationships and their market impact. Finally, we correct the previously underestimated profitability of block builders who vertically integrate with a searcher. These insights illuminate the darkest corner of the MEV landscape and highlight the critical implications of CEX-DEX arbitrages for Ethereum’s decentralization. ...

Arbitrage on Decentralized Exchanges ArXiv ID: 2507.08302 “View on arXiv” Authors: Xue Dong He, Chen Yang, Yutian Zhou Abstract Decentralized exchanges (DEXs) are alternative venues to centralized exchanges (CEXs) for trading cryptocurrencies and have become increasingly popular. An arbitrage opportunity arises when the exchange rate of two cryptocurrencies in a DEX differs from that in a CEX. Arbitrageurs can then trade on the DEX and CEX to make a profit. Trading on the DEX incurs a gas fee, which determines the priority of the trade being executed. We study a gas-fee competition game between two arbitrageurs who maximize their expected profit from trading. We derive the unique symmetric mixed Nash equilibrium and find that (i) the arbitrageurs may choose not to trade when the arbitrage opportunity and liquidity is small; (ii) the probability of the arbitrageurs choosing a higher gas fee is lower; (iii) the arbitrageurs pay a higher gas fee and trade more when the arbitrage opportunity becomes larger and when liquidity becomes higher; (iv) the arbitrageurs’ expected profit could increase with arbitrage opportunity and liquidity. The above findings are consistent with our empirical study. ...

Arbitrage with bounded Liquidity ArXiv ID: 2507.02027 “View on arXiv” Authors: Christoph Schlegel, Quintus Kilbourn Abstract We derive the arbitrage gains or, equivalently, Loss Versus Rebalancing (LVR) for arbitrage between \textit{“two imperfectly liquid”} markets, extending prior work that assumes the existence of an infinitely liquid reference market. Our result highlights that the LVR depends on the relative liquidity and relative trading volume of the two markets between which arbitrage gains are extracted. Our model assumes that trading costs on at least one of the markets is quadratic. This assumption holds well in practice, with the exception of highly liquid major pairs on centralized exchanges, for which we discuss extensions to other cost functions. ...

FLUXLAYER: High-Performance Design for Cross-chain Fragmented Liquidity ArXiv ID: 2505.09423 “View on arXiv” Authors: Xin Lao, Shiping Chen, Qin Wang Abstract Autonomous Market Makers (AMMs) rely on arbitrage to facilitate passive price updates. Liquidity fragmentation poses a complex challenge across different blockchain networks. This paper proposes FluxLayer, a solution to mitigate fragmented liquidity and capture the maximum extractable value (MEV) in a cross-chain environment. FluxLayer is a three-layer framework that integrates a settlement layer, an intent layer, and an under-collateralised leverage lending vault mechanism. Our evaluation demonstrates that FluxLayer can effectively enhance cross-chain MEV by capturing more arbitrage opportunities, reducing costs, and improving overall liquidity. ...

On Bitcoin Price Prediction ArXiv ID: 2504.18982 “View on arXiv” Authors: Grégory Bournassenko Abstract In recent years, cryptocurrencies have attracted growing attention from both private investors and institutions. Among them, Bitcoin stands out for its impressive volatility and widespread influence. This paper explores the predictability of Bitcoin’s price movements, drawing a parallel with traditional financial markets. We examine whether the cryptocurrency market operates under the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) or if inefficiencies still allow opportunities for arbitrage. Our methodology combines theoretical reviews, empirical analyses, machine learning approaches, and time series modeling to assess the extent to which Bitcoin’s price can be predicted. We find that while, in general, the Bitcoin market tends toward efficiency, specific conditions, including information asymmetries and behavioral anomalies, occasionally create exploitable inefficiencies. However, these opportunities remain difficult to systematically identify and leverage. Our findings have implications for both investors and policymakers, particularly regarding the regulation of cryptocurrency brokers and derivatives markets. ...

Perpetual Demand Lending Pools ArXiv ID: 2502.06028 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Decentralized perpetuals protocols have collectively reached billions of dollars of daily trading volume, yet are still not serious competitors on the basis of trading volume with centralized venues such as Binance. One of the main reasons for this is the high cost of capital for market makers and sophisticated traders in decentralized settings. Recently, numerous decentralized finance protocols have been used to improve borrowing costs for perpetual futures traders. We formalize this class of mechanisms utilized by protocols such as Jupiter, Hyperliquid, and GMX, which we term~\emph{“Perpetual Demand Lending Pools”} (PDLPs). We then formalize a general target weight mechanism that generalizes what GMX and Jupiter are using in practice. We explicitly describe pool arbitrage and expected payoffs for arbitrageurs and liquidity providers within these mechanisms. Using this framework, we show that under general conditions, PDLPs are easy to delta hedge, partially explaining the proliferation of live hedged PDLP strategies. Our results suggest directions to improve capital efficiency in PDLPs via dynamic parametrization. ...