Arbitrage-Free Pricing

Risk-Neutral Pricing of Random-Expiry Options Using Trinomial Trees ArXiv ID: 2508.17014 “View on arXiv” Authors: Sebastien Bossu, Michael Grabchak Abstract Random-expiry options are nontraditional derivative contracts that may expire early based on a random event. We develop a methodology for pricing these options using a trinomial tree, where the middle path is interpreted as early expiry. We establish that this approach is free of arbitrage, derive its continuous-time limit, and show how it may be implemented numerically in an efficient manner. ...

Empirical Models of the Time Evolution of SPX Option Prices ArXiv ID: 2506.17511 “View on arXiv” Authors: Alessio Brini, David A. Hsieh, Patrick Kuiper, Sean Moushegian, David Ye Abstract The key objective of this paper is to develop an empirical model for pricing SPX options that can be simulated over future paths of the SPX. To accomplish this, we formulate and rigorously evaluate several statistical models, including neural network, random forest, and linear regression. These models use the observed characteristics of the options as inputs – their price, moneyness and time-to-maturity, as well as a small set of external inputs, such as the SPX and its past history, dividend yield, and the risk-free rate. Model evaluation is performed on historical options data, spanning 30 years of daily observations. Significant effort is given to understanding the data and ensuring explainability for the neural network. A neural network model with two hidden layers and four neurons per layer, trained with minimal hyperparameter tuning, performs well against the theoretical Black-Scholes-Merton model for European options, as well as two other empirical models based on the random forest and the linear regression. It delivers arbitrage-free option prices without requiring these conditions to be imposed. ...

Deep Hedging Bermudan Swaptions ArXiv ID: 2411.10079 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Abstract This paper proposes a novel approach to Bermudan swaption hedging by applying the deep hedging framework to address limitations of traditional arbitrage-free methods. Conventional methods assume ideal conditions, such as zero transaction costs, perfect liquidity, and continuous-time hedging, which often differ from real market environments. This discrepancy can lead to residual profit and loss (P&L), resulting in two primary issues. First, residual P&L may prevent achieving the initial model price, especially with improper parameter settings, potentially causing a negative P&L trend and significant financial impacts. Second, controlling the distribution of residual P&L to mitigate downside risk is challenging, as hedged positions may become curve gamma-short, making them vulnerable to large interest rate movements. The deep hedging approach enables flexible selection of convex risk measures and hedge strategies, allowing for improved residual P&L management. This study also addresses challenges in applying the deep hedging approach to Bermudan swaptions, such as efficient arbitrage-free market scenario generation and managing early exercise conditions. Additionally, we introduce a unique “Option Spread Hedge” strategy, which allows for robust hedging and provides intuitive interpretability. Numerical analysis results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. ...

The Quadratic Local Variance Gamma Model: an arbitrage-free interpolation of class C3 for option prices ArXiv ID: 2305.13791 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper generalizes the local variance gamma model of Carr and Nadtochiy, to a piecewise quadratic local variance function. The formulation encompasses the piecewise linear Bachelier and piecewise linear Black local variance gamma models. The quadratic local variance function results in an arbitrage-free interpolation of class C3. The increased smoothness over the piecewise-constant and piecewise-linear representation allows to reduce the number of knots when interpolating raw market quotes, thus providing an interesting alternative to regularization while reducing the computational cost. ...