Asset Allocation

Quantum-Inspired Portfolio Optimization In The QUBO Framework ArXiv ID: 2410.05932 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract A quantum-inspired optimization approach is proposed to study the portfolio optimization aimed at selecting an optimal mix of assets based on the risk-return trade-off to achieve the desired goal in investment. By integrating conventional approaches with quantum-inspired methods for penalty coefficient estimation, this approach enables faster and accurate solutions to portfolio optimization which is validated through experiments using a real-world dataset of quarterly financial data spanning over ten-year period. In addition, the proposed preprocessing method of two-stage search further enhances the effectiveness of our approach, showing the ability to improve computational efficiency while maintaining solution accuracy through appropriate setting of parameters. This research contributes to the growing body of literature on quantum-inspired techniques in finance, demonstrating its potential as a useful tool for asset allocation and portfolio management. ...

Modern Portfolio Diversification with Arte-Blue Chip Index ArXiv ID: 2409.18816 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper presents a novel approach to evaluating blue-chip art as a viable asset class for portfolio diversification. We present the Arte-Blue Chip Index, an index that tracks 100 top-performing artists based on 81,891 public transactions from 157 artists across 584 auction houses over the period 1990 to 2024. By comparing blue-chip art price trends with stock market fluctuations, our index provides insights into the risk and return profile of blue-chip art investments. Our analysis demonstrates that a 20% allocation of blue-chip art in a diversified portfolio enhances risk-adjusted returns by around 20%, while maintaining volatility levels similar to the S&P 500. ...

Network-based diversification of stock and cryptocurrency portfolios ArXiv ID: 2408.11739 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Maintaining a balance between returns and volatility is a common strategy for portfolio diversification, whether investing in traditional equities or digital assets like cryptocurrencies. One approach for diversification is the application of community detection or clustering, using a network representing the relationships between assets. We examine two network representations, one based on a standard distance matrix based on correlation, and another based on mutual information. The Louvain and Affinity propagation algorithms were employed for finding the network communities (clusters) based on annual data. Furthermore, we examine building assets’ co-occurrence networks, where communities are detected for each month throughout a whole year and then the links represent how often assets belong to the same community. Portfolios are then constructed by selecting several assets from each community based on local properties (degree centrality), global properties (closeness centrality), or explained variance (Principal component analysis), with three value ranges (max, med, min), calculated on a maximal spanning tree or a fully connected community sub-graph. We explored these various strategies on data from the S&P 500 and the Top 203 cryptocurrencies with a market cap above 2M USD in the period from Jan 2019 to Sep 2022. Moreover, we study into more details the periods of the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak and the start of the war in Ukraine. The results confirm some of the previous findings already known for traditional stock markets and provide some further insights, while they reveal an opposing trend in the crypto-assets market. ...

Hopfield Networks for Asset Allocation ArXiv ID: 2407.17645 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We present the first application of modern Hopfield networks to the problem of portfolio optimization. We performed an extensive study based on combinatorial purged cross-validation over several datasets and compared our results to both traditional and deep-learning-based methods for portfolio selection. Compared to state-of-the-art deep-learning methods such as Long-Short Term Memory networks and Transformers, we find that the proposed approach performs on par or better, while providing faster training times and better stability. Our results show that Modern Hopfield Networks represent a promising approach to portfolio optimization, allowing for an efficient, scalable, and robust solution for asset allocation, risk management, and dynamic rebalancing. ...

Robust optimal investment and consumption strategies with portfolio constraints and stochastic environment ArXiv ID: 2407.02831 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We investigate a continuous-time investment-consumption problem with model uncertainty in a general diffusion-based market with random model coefficients. We assume that a power utility investor is ambiguity-averse, with the preference to robustness captured by the homothetic multiplier robust specification, and the investor’s investment and consumption strategies are constrained to closed convex sets. To solve this constrained robust control problem, we employ the stochastic Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman-Isaacs equations, backward stochastic differential equations, and bounded mean oscillation martingale theory. Furthermore, we show the investor incurs (non-negative) utility loss, i.e. the loss in welfare, if model uncertainty is ignored. When the model coefficients are deterministic, we establish formally the relationship between the investor’s robustness preference and the robust optimal investment-consumption strategy and the value function, and the impact of investment and consumption constraints on the investor’s robust optimal investment-consumption strategy and value function. Extensive numerical experiments highlight the significant impact of ambiguity aversion, consumption and investment constraints, on the investor’s robust optimal investment-consumption strategy, utility loss, and value function. Key findings include: 1) short-selling restriction always reduces the investor’s utility loss when model uncertainty is ignored; 2) the effect of consumption constraints on utility loss is more delicate and relies on the investor’s risk aversion level. ...

Application of Black-Litterman Bayesian in Statistical Arbitrage ArXiv ID: 2406.06706 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract \begin{“abstract”} In this paper, we integrated the statistical arbitrage strategy, pairs trading, into the Black-Litterman model and constructed efficient mean-variance portfolios. Typically, pairs trading underperforms under volatile or distressed market condition because the selected asset pairs fail to revert to equilibrium within the investment horizon. By enhancing this strategy with the Black-Litterman portfolio optimization, we achieved superior performance compared to the S&P 500 market index under both normal and extreme market conditions. Furthermore, this research presents an innovative idea of incorporating traditional pairs trading strategies into the portfolio optimization framework in a scalable and systematic manner. ...

Optimizing Portfolio Management and Risk Assessment in Digital Assets Using Deep Learning for Predictive Analysis ArXiv ID: 2402.15994 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Portfolio management issues have been extensively studied in the field of artificial intelligence in recent years, but existing deep learning-based quantitative trading methods have some areas where they could be improved. First of all, the prediction mode of stocks is singular; often, only one trading expert is trained by a model, and the trading decision is solely based on the prediction results of the model. Secondly, the data source used by the model is relatively simple, and only considers the data of the stock itself, ignoring the impact of the whole market risk on the stock. In this paper, the DQN algorithm is introduced into asset management portfolios in a novel and straightforward way, and the performance greatly exceeds the benchmark, which fully proves the effectiveness of the DRL algorithm in portfolio management. This also inspires us to consider the complexity of financial problems, and the use of algorithms should be fully combined with the problems to adapt. Finally, in this paper, the strategy is implemented by selecting the assets and actions with the largest Q value. Since different assets are trained separately as environments, there may be a phenomenon of Q value drift among different assets (different assets have different Q value distribution areas), which may easily lead to incorrect asset selection. Consider adding constraints so that the Q values of different assets share a Q value distribution to improve results. ...

Sparse spanning portfolios and under-diversification with second-order stochastic dominance ArXiv ID: 2402.01951 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We develop and implement methods for determining whether relaxing sparsity constraints on portfolios improves the investment opportunity set for risk-averse investors. We formulate a new estimation procedure for sparse second-order stochastic spanning based on a greedy algorithm and Linear Programming. We show the optimal recovery of the sparse solution asymptotically whether spanning holds or not. From large equity datasets, we estimate the expected utility loss due to possible under-diversification, and find that there is no benefit from expanding a sparse opportunity set beyond 45 assets. The optimal sparse portfolio invests in 10 industry sectors and cuts tail risk when compared to a sparse mean-variance portfolio. On a rolling-window basis, the number of assets shrinks to 25 assets in crisis periods, while standard factor models cannot explain the performance of the sparse portfolios. ...

Improved Data Generation for Enhanced Asset Allocation: A Synthetic Dataset Approach for the Fixed Income Universe ArXiv ID: 2311.16004 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We present a novel process for generating synthetic datasets tailored to assess asset allocation methods and construct portfolios within the fixed income universe. Our approach begins by enhancing the CorrGAN model to generate synthetic correlation matrices. Subsequently, we propose an Encoder-Decoder model that samples additional data conditioned on a given correlation matrix. The resulting synthetic dataset facilitates in-depth analyses of asset allocation methods across diverse asset universes. Additionally, we provide a case study that exemplifies the use of the synthetic dataset to improve portfolios constructed within a simulation-based asset allocation process. ...

Portfolio Time Consistency and Utility Weighted Discount Rates ArXiv ID: 2402.05113 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Merton portfolio management problem is studied in this paper within a stochastic volatility, non constant time discount rate, and power utility framework. This problem is time inconsistent and the way out of this predicament is to consider the subgame perfect strategies. The later are characterized through an extended Hamilton Jacobi Bellman (HJB) equation. A fixed point iteration is employed to solve the extended HJB equation. This is done in a two stage approach: in a first step the utility weighted discount rate is introduced and characterized as the fixed point of a certain operator; in the second step the value function is determined through a linear parabolic partial differential equation. Numerical experiments explore the effect of the time discount rate on the subgame perfect and precommitment strategies. ...