Asset Pricing Model

Application of the Kelly Criterion to Prediction Markets ArXiv ID: 2412.14144 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Betting markets are gaining in popularity. Mean beliefs generally differ from prices in prediction markets. Logarithmic utility is employed to study the risk and return adjustments to prices. Some consequences are described. A modified payout structure is proposed. A simple asset price model based on flipping biased coins is investigated. It is shown using the Kullback-Leibler divergence how the misjudgment of the bias and the miscalculation of the investment fraction influence the portfolio growth rate. ...

Mean field equilibrium asset pricing model with habit formation ArXiv ID: 2406.02155 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper presents an asset pricing model in an incomplete market involving a large number of heterogeneous agents based on the mean field game theory. In the model, we incorporate habit formation in consumption preferences, which has been widely used to explain various phenomena in financial economics. In order to characterize the market-clearing equilibrium, we derive a quadratic-growth mean field backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) and study its well-posedness and asymptotic behavior in the large population limit. Additionally, we introduce an exponential quadratic Gaussian reformulation of the asset pricing model, in which the solution is obtained in a semi-analytic form. ...