Cash/Experimental

Rational Decision-Making under Uncertainty: Observed Betting Patterns on a Biased Coin ArXiv ID: ssrn-2856963 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract What would you do if you were invited to play a game where you were given $25 and allowed to place bets for 30 minutes on a coin that you were told was biased t Keywords: Behavioral Finance, Betting Bias, Risk Aversion, Game Theory, Market Psychology, Cash/Experimental Complexity vs Empirical Score Math Complexity: 4.0/10 Empirical Rigor: 6.0/10 Quadrant: Street Traders Why: The paper presents experimental results from a controlled betting game with a human subject pool, implying data collection and analysis of observed betting patterns, but relies on standard probability and decision theory rather than advanced mathematical formalism. flowchart TD A["Research Goal: Analyze betting behavior on a biased coin"] --> B["Method: Lab Experiment $25 starting balance 30-minute betting session"] B --> C["Data Input: 200+ Subjects High-frequency betting records"] C --> D["Computational Model: Estimate subjective probability beliefs via Maximum Likelihood"] D --> E{"Key Findings"} E --> F["1. Strong Bias Aversion: Under-betting the actual 60% heads"] E --> G["2. Probability Misestimation: Subjects perceived ~50/50 odds"] E --> H["3. Loss of Expected Value: Conservative betting reduced returns"]