Copulas

Intertemporal Cost-efficient Consumption ArXiv ID: 2405.16336 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We aim to provide an intertemporal, cost-efficient consumption model that extends the consumption optimization inspired by the Distribution Builder, a tool developed by Sharpe, Johnson, and Goldstein. The Distribution Builder enables the recovery of investors’ risk preferences by allowing them to select a desired distribution of terminal wealth within their budget constraints. This approach differs from the classical portfolio optimization, which considers the agent’s risk aversion modeled by utility functions that are challenging to measure in practice. Our intertemporal model captures the dependent structure between consumption periods using copulas. This strategy is demonstrated using both the Black-Scholes and CEV models. ...

Copula-based deviation measure of cointegrated financial assets ArXiv ID: 2312.02081 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This study outlines a comprehensive methodology utilizing copulas to discern inconsistencies in the behavior exhibited by pairs of financial assets. It introduces a robust approach to establishing the interrelationship between the returns of these assets, exploring potential measures of dependence among the stochastic variables represented by these returns. Special emphasis is placed on scrutinizing the traditional measure of dependence, namely the correlation coefficient, delineating its limitations. Furthermore, the study articulates an alternative methodology that offers enhanced stability and informativeness in appraising the relationship between financial instrument returns. ...

Multivariate Simulation-based Forecasting for Intraday Power Markets: Modelling Cross-Product Price Effects ArXiv ID: 2306.13419 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Intraday electricity markets play an increasingly important role in balancing the intermittent generation of renewable energy resources, which creates a need for accurate probabilistic price forecasts. However, research to date has focused on univariate approaches, while in many European intraday electricity markets all delivery periods are traded in parallel. Thus, the dependency structure between different traded products and the corresponding cross-product effects cannot be ignored. We aim to fill this gap in the literature by using copulas to model the high-dimensional intraday price return vector. We model the marginal distribution as a zero-inflated Johnson’s $S_U$ distribution with location, scale and shape parameters that depend on market and fundamental data. The dependence structure is modelled using latent beta regression to account for the particular market structure of the intraday electricity market, such as overlapping but independent trading sessions for different delivery days. We allow the dependence parameter to be time-varying. We validate our approach in a simulation study for the German intraday electricity market and find that modelling the dependence structure improves the forecasting performance. Additionally, we shed light on the impact of the single intraday coupling (SIDC) on the trading activity and price distribution and interpret our results in light of the market efficiency hypothesis. The approach is directly applicable to other European electricity markets. ...

Copula-Based Trading of Cointegrated Cryptocurrency Pairs ArXiv ID: 2305.06961 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This research introduces a novel pairs trading strategy based on copulas for cointegrated pairs of cryptocurrencies. To identify the most suitable pairs, the study employs linear and non-linear cointegration tests along with a correlation coefficient measure and fits different copula families to generate trading signals formulated from a reference asset for analyzing the mispricing index. The strategy’s performance is then evaluated by conducting back-testing for various triggers of opening positions, assessing its returns and risks. The findings indicate that the proposed method outperforms buy-and-hold trading strategies in terms of both profitability and risk-adjusted returns. ...

Copulas forFinance- A Reading Guide and Some Applications ArXiv ID: ssrn-1032533 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Copulas are a general tool to construct multivariate distributions and to investigate dependence structure between random variables. However, the concept of cop Keywords: Copulas, Multivariate Distributions, Dependence Structure, Random Variables, Statistical Modeling, Quantitative Methods Complexity vs Empirical Score Math Complexity: 7.5/10 Empirical Rigor: 2.0/10 Quadrant: Lab Rats Why: The paper focuses on theoretical copula constructions and dependence structures with advanced mathematics, but lacks implementation details, backtests, or empirical data. flowchart TD A["Research Goal:<br>Review Copulas for Finance"] --> B["Key Methodology:<br>Literature Review & Analysis"] B --> C["Data/Input:<br>Financial Return Datasets<br>and Models"] C --> D["Computational Process:<br>Model Fitting &<br>Dependence Estimation"] D --> E["Key Outcomes:<br>Capturing Non-Linear Dependence<br>and Risk Assessment"]