Credit Derivatives

Evaluating Credit VIX (CDS IV) Prediction Methods with Incremental Batch Learning ArXiv ID: 2408.15404 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper presents the experimental process and results of SVM, Gradient Boosting, and an Attention-GRU Hybrid model in predicting the Implied Volatility of rolled-over five-year spread contracts of credit default swaps (CDS) on European corporate debt during the quarter following mid-May ‘24, as represented by the iTraxx/Cboe Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility). The analysis employs a feature matrix inspired by Merton’s determinants of default probability. Our comparative assessment aims to identify strengths in SOTA and classical machine learning methods for financial risk prediction ...

Reinforcement Learning for Credit Index Option Hedging ArXiv ID: 2307.09844 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In this paper, we focus on finding the optimal hedging strategy of a credit index option using reinforcement learning. We take a practical approach, where the focus is on realism i.e. discrete time, transaction costs; even testing our policy on real market data. We apply a state of the art algorithm, the Trust Region Volatility Optimization (TRVO) algorithm and show that the derived hedging strategy outperforms the practitioner’s Black & Scholes delta hedge. ...