Decentralized Finance (DeFi)

Design of a Decentralized Fixed-Income Lending Automated Market Maker Protocol Supporting Arbitrary Maturities ArXiv ID: 2512.16080 “View on arXiv” Authors: Tianyi Ma Abstract In decentralized finance (DeFi), designing fixed-income lending automated market makers (AMMs) is extremely challenging due to time-related complexities. Moreover, existing protocols only support single-maturity lending. Building upon the BondMM protocol, this paper argues that its mathematical invariants are sufficiently elegant to be generalized to arbitrary maturities. This paper thus propose an improved design, BondMM-A, which supports lending activities of any maturity. By integrating fixed-income instruments of varying maturities into a single smart contract, BondMM-A offers users and liquidity providers (LPs) greater operational freedom and capital efficiency. Experimental results show that BondMM-A performs excellently in terms of interest rate stability and financial robustness. ...

Dynamics of Liquidity Surfaces in Uniswap v3 ArXiv ID: 2509.05013 “View on arXiv” Authors: Jimmy Risk, Shen-Ning Tung, Tai-Ho Wang Abstract This paper presents a comprehensive study on the empirical dynamics of Uniswap v3 liquidity, which we model as a time-tick surface, $L_t(x)$. Using a combination of functional principal component analysis (FPCA) and dynamic factor methods, we analyze three distinct pools over multiple sample periods. Our findings offer three main contributions: a statistical characterization of automated market maker liquidity, an interpretable and portable basis for dimension reduction, and a robust analysis of liquidity dynamics using rolling window metrics. For the 5 bps pools, the leading empirical eigenfunctions explain the majority of cross-tick variation and remain stable, aligning closely with a low-order Legendre polynomial basis. This alignment provides a parsimonious and interpretable structure, similar to the dynamic Nelson-Siegel method for yield curves. The factor coefficients exhibit a time series structure well-captured by AR(1) models with clear GARCH-type heteroskedasticity and heavy-tailed innovations. ...

Benchmarking Classical and Quantum Models for DeFi Yield Prediction on Curve Finance ArXiv ID: 2508.02685 “View on arXiv” Authors: Chi-Sheng Chen, Aidan Hung-Wen Tsai Abstract The rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) has created a growing demand for accurate yield and performance forecasting to guide liquidity allocation strategies. In this study, we benchmark six models, XGBoost, Random Forest, LSTM, Transformer, quantum neural networks (QNN), and quantum support vector machines with quantum feature maps (QSVM-QNN), on one year of historical data from 28 Curve Finance pools. We evaluate model performance on test MAE, RMSE, and directional accuracy. Our results show that classical ensemble models, particularly XGBoost and Random Forest, consistently outperform both deep learning and quantum models. XGBoost achieves the highest directional accuracy (71.57%) with a test MAE of 1.80, while Random Forest attains the lowest test MAE of 1.77 and 71.36% accuracy. In contrast, quantum models underperform with directional accuracy below 50% and higher errors, highlighting current limitations in applying quantum machine learning to real-world DeFi time series data. This work offers a reproducible benchmark and practical insights into model suitability for DeFi applications, emphasizing the robustness of classical methods over emerging quantum approaches in this domain. ...

FinSurvival: A Suite of Large Scale Survival Modeling Tasks from Finance ArXiv ID: 2507.14160 “View on arXiv” Authors: Aaron Green, Zihan Nie, Hanzhen Qin, Oshani Seneviratne, Kristin P. Bennett Abstract Survival modeling predicts the time until an event occurs and is widely used in risk analysis; for example, it’s used in medicine to predict the survival of a patient based on censored data. There is a need for large-scale, realistic, and freely available datasets for benchmarking artificial intelligence (AI) survival models. In this paper, we derive a suite of 16 survival modeling tasks from publicly available transaction data generated by lending of cryptocurrencies in Decentralized Finance (DeFi). Each task was constructed using an automated pipeline based on choices of index and outcome events. For example, the model predicts the time from when a user borrows cryptocurrency coins (index event) until their first repayment (outcome event). We formulate a survival benchmark consisting of a suite of 16 survival-time prediction tasks (FinSurvival). We also automatically create 16 corresponding classification problems for each task by thresholding the survival time using the restricted mean survival time. With over 7.5 million records, FinSurvival provides a suite of realistic financial modeling tasks that will spur future AI survival modeling research. Our evaluation indicated that these are challenging tasks that are not well addressed by existing methods. FinSurvival enables the evaluation of AI survival models applicable to traditional finance, industry, medicine, and commerce, which is currently hindered by the lack of large public datasets. Our benchmark demonstrates how AI models could assess opportunities and risks in DeFi. In the future, the FinSurvival benchmark pipeline can be used to create new benchmarks by incorporating more DeFi transactions and protocols as the use of cryptocurrency grows. ...

Optimal Dynamic Fees in Automated Market Makers ArXiv ID: 2506.02869 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Automated Market Makers (AMMs) are emerging as a popular decentralised trading platform. In this work, we determine the optimal dynamic fees in a constant function market maker. We find approximate closed-form solutions to the control problem and study the optimal fee structure. We find that there are two distinct fee regimes: one in which the AMM imposes higher fees to deter arbitrageurs, and another where fees are lowered to increase volatility and attract noise traders. Our results also show that dynamic fees that are linear in inventory and are sensitive to changes in the external price are a good approximation of the optimal fee structure and thus constitute suitable candidates when designing fees for AMMs. ...

DeFi Liquidation Risk Modeling Using Geometric Brownian Motion ArXiv ID: 2505.08100 “View on arXiv” Authors: Timofei Belenko, Georgii Vosorov Abstract In this paper, we propose an analytical method to compute the collateral liquidation probability in decentralized finance (DeFi) stablecoin single-collateral lending. Our approach models the collateral exchange rate as a zero-drift geometric Brownian motion, and derives the probability of it crossing the liquidation threshold. Unlike most existing methods that rely on computationally intensive simulations such as Monte Carlo, our formula provides a lightweight, exact solution. This advancement offers a more efficient alternative for risk assessment in DeFi platforms. ...

Vote Delegation in DeFi Governance ArXiv ID: 2503.11940 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We investigate the drivers of vote delegation in Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs), using the Uniswap governance DAO as a laboratory. We show that parties with fewer self-owned votes and those affiliated with the controlling venture capital firm, Andreesen Horowitz (a16z), receive more vote delegations. These patterns suggest that while the Uniswap ecosystem values decentralization, a16z may engage in window-dressing around it. Moreover, we find that an active and successful track record in submitting improvement proposals, especially in the final stage, leads to more vote delegations, indicating that delegation in DAOs is at least partly reputation- or merit-based. Combined, our findings provide new insights into how governance and decentralization operate in DeFi. ...

Perpetual Demand Lending Pools ArXiv ID: 2502.06028 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Decentralized perpetuals protocols have collectively reached billions of dollars of daily trading volume, yet are still not serious competitors on the basis of trading volume with centralized venues such as Binance. One of the main reasons for this is the high cost of capital for market makers and sophisticated traders in decentralized settings. Recently, numerous decentralized finance protocols have been used to improve borrowing costs for perpetual futures traders. We formalize this class of mechanisms utilized by protocols such as Jupiter, Hyperliquid, and GMX, which we term~\emph{“Perpetual Demand Lending Pools”} (PDLPs). We then formalize a general target weight mechanism that generalizes what GMX and Jupiter are using in practice. We explicitly describe pool arbitrage and expected payoffs for arbitrageurs and liquidity providers within these mechanisms. Using this framework, we show that under general conditions, PDLPs are easy to delta hedge, partially explaining the proliferation of live hedged PDLP strategies. Our results suggest directions to improve capital efficiency in PDLPs via dynamic parametrization. ...

Automated Market Makers: Toward More Profitable Liquidity Provisioning Strategies ArXiv ID: 2501.07828 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract To trade tokens in cryptoeconomic systems, automated market makers (AMMs) typically rely on liquidity providers (LPs) that deposit tokens in exchange for rewards. To profit from such rewards, LPs must use effective liquidity provisioning strategies. However, LPs lack guidance for developing such strategies, which often leads them to financial losses. We developed a measurement model based on impermanent loss to analyze the influences of key parameters (i.e., liquidity pool type, position duration, position range size, and position size) of liquidity provisioning strategies on LPs’ returns. To reveal the influences of those key parameters on LPs’ profits, we used the measurement model to analyze 700 days of historical liquidity provision data of Uniswap v3. By uncovering the influences of key parameters of liquidity provisioning strategies on profitability, this work supports LPs in developing more profitable strategies. ...

Time-Varying Bidirectional Causal Relationships Between Transaction Fees and Economic Activity of Subsystems Utilizing the Ethereum Blockchain Network ArXiv ID: 2501.05299 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The Ethereum blockchain network enables transaction processing and smart-contract execution through levies of transaction fees, commonly known as gas fees. This framework mediates economic participation via a market-based mechanism for gas fees, permitting users to offer higher gas fees to expedite pro-cessing. Historically, the ensuing gas fee volatility led to critical disequilibria between supply and demand for block space, presenting stakeholder challenges. This study examines the dynamic causal interplay between transaction fees and economic subsystems leveraging the network. By utilizing data related to unique active wallets and transaction volume of each subsystem and applying time-varying Granger causality analysis, we reveal temporal heterogeneity in causal relationships between economic activity and transaction fees across all subsystems. This includes (a) a bidirectional causal feedback loop between cross-blockchain bridge user activity and transaction fees, which diminishes over time, potentially signaling user migration; (b) a bidirectional relationship between centralized cryptocurrency exchange deposit and withdrawal transaction volume and fees, indicative of increased competition for block space; (c) decentralized exchange volumes causally influence fees, while fees causally influence user activity, although this relationship is weakening, potentially due to the diminished significance of decentralized finance; (d) intermittent causal relationships with maximal extractable value bots; (e) fees causally in-fluence non-fungible token transaction volumes; and (f) a highly significant and growing causal influence of transaction fees on stablecoin activity and transaction volumes highlight its prominence. ...