Deep Neural Networks

A comprehensive review and analysis of different modeling approaches for financial index tracking problem ArXiv ID: 2601.03927 “View on arXiv” Authors: Vrinda Dhingra, Amita Sharma, Anubha Goel Abstract Index tracking, also known as passive investing, has gained significant traction in financial markets due to its cost-effective and efficient approach to replicating the performance of a specific market index. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of the various modeling approaches and strategies developed for index tracking, highlighting the strengths and limitations of each approach. We categorize the index tracking models into three broad frameworks: optimization-based models, statistical-based models and machine learning based data-driven approach. A comprehensive empirical study conducted on the S&P 500 dataset demonstrates that the tracking error volatility model under the optimization-based framework delivers the most precise index tracking, the convex co-integration model, under the statistical-based framework achieves the strongest return-risk balance, and the deep neural network with fixed noise model within the data-driven framework provides a competitive performance with notably low turnover and high computational efficiency. By combining a critical review of the existing literature with comparative empirical analysis, this paper aims to provide insights into the evolving landscape of index tracking and its practical implications for investors and fund managers. ...

Minimizing the Value-at-Risk of Loan Portfolio via Deep Neural Networks ArXiv ID: 2510.07444 “View on arXiv” Authors: Albert Di Wang, Ye Du Abstract Risk management is a prominent issue in peer-to-peer lending. An investor may naturally reduce his risk exposure by diversifying instead of putting all his money on one loan. In that case, an investor may want to minimize the Value-at-Risk (VaR) or Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of his loan portfolio. We propose a low degree of freedom deep neural network model, DeNN, as well as a high degree of freedom model, DSNN, to tackle the problem. In particular, our models predict not only the default probability of a loan but also the time when it will default. The experiments demonstrate that both models can significantly reduce the portfolio VaRs at different confidence levels, compared to benchmarks. More interestingly, the low degree of freedom model, DeNN, outperforms DSNN in most scenarios. ...

From Classical Rationality to Contextual Reasoning: Quantum Logic as a New Frontier for Human-Centric AI in Finance ArXiv ID: 2510.05475 “View on arXiv” Authors: Fabio Bagarello, Francesco Gargano, Polina Khrennikova Abstract We consider state of the art applications of artificial intelligence (AI) in modelling human financial expectations and explore the potential of quantum logic to drive future advancements in this field. This analysis highlights the application of machine learning techniques, including reinforcement learning and deep neural networks, in financial statement analysis, algorithmic trading, portfolio management, and robo-advisory services. We further discuss the emergence and progress of quantum machine learning (QML) and advocate for broader exploration of the advantages provided by quantum-inspired neural networks. ...

Deep Hedging to Manage Tail Risk ArXiv ID: 2506.22611 “View on arXiv” Authors: Yuming Ma Abstract Extending Buehler et al.’s 2019 Deep Hedging paradigm, we innovatively employ deep neural networks to parameterize convex-risk minimization (CVaR/ES) for the portfolio tail-risk hedging problem. Through comprehensive numerical experiments on crisis-era bootstrap market simulators – customizable with transaction costs, risk budgets, liquidity constraints, and market impact – our end-to-end framework not only achieves significant one-day 99% CVaR reduction but also yields practical insights into friction-aware strategy adaptation, demonstrating robustness and operational viability in realistic markets. ...

Pricing and hedging of decentralised lending contracts ArXiv ID: 2409.04233 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We study the loan contracts offered by decentralised loan protocols (DLPs) through the lens of financial derivatives. DLPs, which effectively are clearinghouses, facilitate transactions between option buyers (i.e. borrowers) and option sellers (i.e. lenders). The loan-to-value at which the contract is initiated determines the option premium borrowers pay for entering the contract, and this can be deduced from the non-arbitrage pricing theory. We show that when there are no market frictions, and there is no spread between lending and borrowing rates, it is optimal to never enter the lending contract. Next, by accounting for the spread between rates and transactional costs, we develop a deep neural network-based algorithm for learning trading strategies on the external markets that allow us to replicate the payoff of the lending contracts that are not necessarily optimally exercised. This allows hedge the risk lenders carry by issuing options sold to the borrowers, which can complement (or even replace) the liquidations mechanism used to protect lenders’ capital. Our approach can also be used to exploit (statistical) arbitrage opportunities that may arise when DLP allow users to enter lending contracts with loan-to-value, which is not appropriately calibrated to market conditions or/and when different markets price risk differently. We present thorough simulation experiments using historical data and simulations to validate our approach. ...

Missing Data Imputation With Granular Semantics and AI-driven Pipeline for Bankruptcy Prediction ArXiv ID: 2404.00013 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This work focuses on designing a pipeline for the prediction of bankruptcy. The presence of missing values, high dimensional data, and highly class-imbalance databases are the major challenges in the said task. A new method for missing data imputation with granular semantics has been introduced here. The merits of granular computing have been explored here to define this method. The missing values have been predicted using the feature semantics and reliable observations in a low-dimensional space, in the granular space. The granules are formed around every missing entry, considering a few of the highly correlated features and most reliable closest observations to preserve the relevance and reliability, the context, of the database against the missing entries. An intergranular prediction is then carried out for the imputation within those contextual granules. That is, the contextual granules enable a small relevant fraction of the huge database to be used for imputation and overcome the need to access the entire database repetitively for each missing value. This method is then implemented and tested for the prediction of bankruptcy with the Polish Bankruptcy dataset. It provides an efficient solution for big and high-dimensional datasets even with large imputation rates. Then an AI-driven pipeline for bankruptcy prediction has been designed using the proposed granular semantic-based data filling method followed by the solutions to the issues like high dimensional dataset and high class-imbalance in the dataset. The rest of the pipeline consists of feature selection with the random forest for reducing dimensionality, data balancing with SMOTE, and prediction with six different popular classifiers including deep NN. All methods defined here have been experimentally verified with suitable comparative studies and proven to be effective on all the data sets captured over the five years. ...

Deep State-Space Model for Predicting Cryptocurrency Price ArXiv ID: 2311.14731 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Our work presents two fundamental contributions. On the application side, we tackle the challenging problem of predicting day-ahead crypto-currency prices. On the methodological side, a new dynamical modeling approach is proposed. Our approach keeps the probabilistic formulation of the state-space model, which provides uncertainty quantification on the estimates, and the function approximation ability of deep neural networks. We call the proposed approach the deep state-space model. The experiments are carried out on established cryptocurrencies (obtained from Yahoo Finance). The goal of the work has been to predict the price for the next day. Benchmarking has been done with both state-of-the-art and classical dynamical modeling techniques. Results show that the proposed approach yields the best overall results in terms of accuracy. ...

A Data-driven Deep Learning Approach for Bitcoin Price Forecasting ArXiv ID: 2311.06280 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Bitcoin as a cryptocurrency has been one of the most important digital coins and the first decentralized digital currency. Deep neural networks, on the other hand, has shown promising results recently; however, we require huge amount of high-quality data to leverage their power. There are some techniques such as augmentation that can help us with increasing the dataset size, but we cannot exploit them on historical bitcoin data. As a result, we propose a shallow Bidirectional-LSTM (Bi-LSTM) model, fed with feature engineered data using our proposed method to forecast bitcoin closing prices in a daily time frame. We compare the performance with that of other forecasting methods, and show that with the help of the proposed feature engineering method, a shallow deep neural network outperforms other popular price forecasting models. ...

On the Impact of Feeding Cost Risk in Aquaculture Valuation and Decision Making ArXiv ID: 2309.02970 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We study the effect of stochastic feeding costs on animal-based commodities with particular focus on aquaculture. More specifically, we use soybean futures to infer on the stochastic behaviour of salmon feed, which we assume to follow a Schwartz-2-factor model. We compare the decision of harvesting salmon using a decision rule assuming either deterministic or stochastic feeding costs, i.e. including feeding cost risk. We identify cases, where accounting for stochastic feeding costs leads to significant improvements as well as cases where deterministic feeding costs are a good enough proxy. Nevertheless, in all of these cases, the newly derived rules show superior performance, while the additional computational costs are negligible. From a methodological point of view, we demonstrate how to use Deep-Neural-Networks to infer on the decision boundary that determines harvesting or continuation, improving on more classical regression-based and curve-fitting methods. To achieve this we use a deep classifier, which not only improves on previous results but also scales well for higher dimensional problems, and in addition mitigates effects due to model uncertainty, which we identify in this article. effects due to model uncertainty, which we identify in this article. ...

DoubleAdapt: A Meta-learning Approach to Incremental Learning for Stock Trend Forecasting ArXiv ID: 2306.09862 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Stock trend forecasting is a fundamental task of quantitative investment where precise predictions of price trends are indispensable. As an online service, stock data continuously arrive over time. It is practical and efficient to incrementally update the forecast model with the latest data which may reveal some new patterns recurring in the future stock market. However, incremental learning for stock trend forecasting still remains under-explored due to the challenge of distribution shifts (a.k.a. concept drifts). With the stock market dynamically evolving, the distribution of future data can slightly or significantly differ from incremental data, hindering the effectiveness of incremental updates. To address this challenge, we propose DoubleAdapt, an end-to-end framework with two adapters, which can effectively adapt the data and the model to mitigate the effects of distribution shifts. Our key insight is to automatically learn how to adapt stock data into a locally stationary distribution in favor of profitable updates. Complemented by data adaptation, we can confidently adapt the model parameters under mitigated distribution shifts. We cast each incremental learning task as a meta-learning task and automatically optimize the adapters for desirable data adaptation and parameter initialization. Experiments on real-world stock datasets demonstrate that DoubleAdapt achieves state-of-the-art predictive performance and shows considerable efficiency. ...