Dependence Measures

Measure of Dependence for Financial Time-Series ArXiv ID: 2311.12129 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Assessing the predictive power of both data and models holds paramount significance in time-series machine learning applications. Yet, preparing time series data accurately and employing an appropriate measure for predictive power seems to be a non-trivial task. This work involves reviewing and establishing the groundwork for a comprehensive analysis of shaping time-series data and evaluating various measures of dependence. Lastly, we present a method, framework, and a concrete example for selecting and evaluating a suitable measure of dependence. ...

New general dependence measures: construction, estimation and application to high-frequency stock returns ArXiv ID: 2309.00025 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We propose a set of dependence measures that are non-linear, local, invariant to a wide range of transformations on the marginals, can show tail and risk asymmetries, are always well-defined, are easy to estimate and can be used on any dataset. We propose a nonparametric estimator and prove its consistency and asymptotic normality. Thereby we significantly improve on existing (extreme) dependence measures used in asset pricing and statistics. To show practical utility, we use these measures on high-frequency stock return data around market distress events such as the 2010 Flash Crash and during the GFC. Contrary to ubiquitously used correlations we find that our measures clearly show tail asymmetry, non-linearity, lack of diversification and endogenous buildup of risks present during these distress events. Additionally, our measures anticipate large (joint) losses during the Flash Crash while also anticipating the bounce back and flagging the subsequent market fragility. Our findings have implications for risk management, portfolio construction and hedging at any frequency. ...