Derivatives

D-TIPO: Deep time-inconsistent portfolio optimization with stocks and options ArXiv ID: 2308.10556 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In this paper, we propose a machine learning algorithm for time-inconsistent portfolio optimization. The proposed algorithm builds upon neural network based trading schemes, in which the asset allocation at each time point is determined by a a neural network. The loss function is given by an empirical version of the objective function of the portfolio optimization problem. Moreover, various trading constraints are naturally fulfilled by choosing appropriate activation functions in the output layers of the neural networks. Besides this, our main contribution is to add options to the portfolio of risky assets and a risk-free bond and using additional neural networks to determine the amount allocated into the options as well as their strike prices. We consider objective functions more in line with the rational preference of an investor than the classical mean-variance, apply realistic trading constraints and model the assets with a correlated jump-diffusion SDE. With an incomplete market and a more involved objective function, we show that it is beneficial to add options to the portfolio. Moreover, it is shown that adding options leads to a more constant stock allocation with less demand for drastic re-allocations. ...

Efficient option pricing with unary-based photonic computing chip and generative adversarial learning ArXiv ID: 2308.04493 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In the modern financial industry system, the structure of products has become more and more complex, and the bottleneck constraint of classical computing power has already restricted the development of the financial industry. Here, we present a photonic chip that implements the unary approach to European option pricing, in combination with the quantum amplitude estimation algorithm, to achieve a quadratic speedup compared to classical Monte Carlo methods. The circuit consists of three modules: a module loading the distribution of asset prices, a module computing the expected payoff, and a module performing the quantum amplitude estimation algorithm to introduce speed-ups. In the distribution module, a generative adversarial network is embedded for efficient learning and loading of asset distributions, which precisely capture the market trends. This work is a step forward in the development of specialized photonic processors for applications in finance, with the potential to improve the efficiency and quality of financial services. ...

Instabilities of explicit finite difference schemes with ghost points on the diffusion equation ArXiv ID: 2308.04629 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Ghost, or fictitious points allow to capture boundary conditions that are not located on the finite difference grid discretization. We explore in this paper the impact of ghost points on the stability of the explicit Euler finite difference scheme in the context of the diffusion equation. In particular, we consider the case of a one-touch option under the Black-Scholes model. The observations and results are however valid for a much wider range of financial contracts and models. ...

Path Shadowing Monte-Carlo ArXiv ID: 2308.01486 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We introduce a Path Shadowing Monte-Carlo method, which provides prediction of future paths, given any generative model. At any given date, it averages future quantities over generated price paths whose past history matches, or shadows', the actual (observed) history. We test our approach using paths generated from a maximum entropy model of financial prices, based on a recently proposed multi-scale analogue of the standard skewness and kurtosis called Scattering Spectra’. This model promotes diversity of generated paths while reproducing the main statistical properties of financial prices, including stylized facts on volatility roughness. Our method yields state-of-the-art predictions for future realized volatility and allows one to determine conditional option smiles for the S&P500 that outperform both the current version of the Path-Dependent Volatility model and the option market itself. ...

An optimal transport approach for the multiple quantile hedging problem ArXiv ID: 2308.01121 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We consider the multiple quantile hedging problem, which is a class of partial hedging problems containing as special examples the quantile hedging problem (F{“ö”}llmer & Leukert 1999) and the PnL matching problem (introduced in Bouchard & Vu 2012). In complete non-linear markets, we show that the problem can be reformulated as a kind of Monge optimal transport problem. Using this observation, we introduce a Kantorovitch version of the problem and prove that the value of both problems coincide. In the linear case, we thus obtain that the multiple quantile hedging problem can be seen as a semi-discrete optimal transport problem, for which we further introduce the dual problem. We then prove that there is no duality gap, allowing us to design a numerical method based on SGA algorithms to compute the multiple quantile hedging price. ...

Machine Learning-powered Pricing of the Multidimensional Passport Option ArXiv ID: 2307.14887 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Introduced in the late 90s, the passport option gives its holder the right to trade in a market and receive any positive gain in the resulting traded account at maturity. Pricing the option amounts to solving a stochastic control problem that for $d>1$ risky assets remains an open problem. Even in a correlated Black-Scholes (BS) market with $d=2$ risky assets, no optimal trading strategy has been derived in closed form. In this paper, we derive a discrete-time solution for multi-dimensional BS markets with uncorrelated assets. Moreover, inspired by the success of deep reinforcement learning in, e.g., board games, we propose two machine learning-powered approaches to pricing general options on a portfolio value in general markets. These approaches prove to be successful for pricing the passport option in one-dimensional and multi-dimensional uncorrelated BS markets. ...

Derivative Pricing using Quantum Signal Processing ArXiv ID: 2307.14310 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Pricing financial derivatives on quantum computers typically includes quantum arithmetic components which contribute heavily to the quantum resources required by the corresponding circuits. In this manuscript, we introduce a method based on Quantum Signal Processing (QSP) to encode financial derivative payoffs directly into quantum amplitudes, alleviating the quantum circuits from the burden of costly quantum arithmetic. Compared to current state-of-the-art approaches in the literature, we find that for derivative contracts of practical interest, the application of QSP significantly reduces the required resources across all metrics considered, most notably the total number of T-gates by $\sim 16$x and the number of logical qubits by $\sim 4$x. Additionally, we estimate that the logical clock rate needed for quantum advantage is also reduced by a factor of $\sim 5$x. Overall, we find that quantum advantage will require $4.7$k logical qubits, and quantum devices that can execute $10^9$ T-gates at a rate of $45$MHz. While in this work we focus specifically on the payoff component of the derivative pricing process where the method we present is most readily applicable, similar techniques can be employed to further reduce the resources in other applications, such as state preparation. ...

Adversarial Deep Hedging: Learning to Hedge without Price Process Modeling ArXiv ID: 2307.13217 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Deep hedging is a deep-learning-based framework for derivative hedging in incomplete markets. The advantage of deep hedging lies in its ability to handle various realistic market conditions, such as market frictions, which are challenging to address within the traditional mathematical finance framework. Since deep hedging relies on market simulation, the underlying asset price process model is crucial. However, existing literature on deep hedging often relies on traditional mathematical finance models, e.g., Brownian motion and stochastic volatility models, and discovering effective underlying asset models for deep hedging learning has been a challenge. In this study, we propose a new framework called adversarial deep hedging, inspired by adversarial learning. In this framework, a hedger and a generator, which respectively model the underlying asset process and the underlying asset process, are trained in an adversarial manner. The proposed method enables to learn a robust hedger without explicitly modeling the underlying asset process. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate that our proposed method achieves competitive performance to models that assume explicit underlying asset processes across various real market data. ...

From characteristic functions to multivariate distribution functions and European option prices by the damped COS method ArXiv ID: 2307.12843 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We provide a unified framework to obtain numerically certain quantities, such as the distribution function, absolute moments and prices of financial options, from the characteristic function of some (unknown) probability density function using the Fourier-cosine expansion (COS) method. The classical COS method is numerically very efficient in one-dimension, but it cannot deal very well with certain integrands in general dimensions. Therefore, we introduce the damped COS method, which can handle a large class of integrands very efficiently. We prove the convergence of the (damped) COS method and study its order of convergence. The method converges exponentially if the characteristic function decays exponentially. To apply the (damped) COS method, one has to specify two parameters: a truncation range for the multivariate density and the number of terms to approximate the truncated density by a cosine series. We provide an explicit formula for the truncation range and an implicit formula for the number of terms. Numerical experiments up to five dimensions confirm the theoretical results. ...

Decentralized Prediction Markets and Sports Books ArXiv ID: 2307.08768 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Prediction markets allow traders to bet on potential future outcomes. These markets exist for weather, political, sports, and economic forecasting. Within this work we consider a decentralized framework for prediction markets using automated market makers (AMMs). Specifically, we construct a liquidity-based AMM structure for prediction markets that, under reasonable axioms on the underlying utility function, satisfy meaningful financial properties on the cost of betting and the resulting pricing oracle. Importantly, we study how liquidity can be pooled or withdrawn from the AMM and the resulting implications to the market behavior. In considering this decentralized framework, we additionally propose financially meaningful fees that can be collected for trading to compensate the liquidity providers for their vital market function. ...