Distributional Reinforcement Learning

Adaptive Nesterov Accelerated Distributional Deep Hedging for Efficient Volatility Risk Management ArXiv ID: 2502.17777 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In the field of financial derivatives trading, managing volatility risk is crucial for protecting investment portfolios from market changes. Traditional Vega hedging strategies, which often rely on basic and rule-based models, are hard to adapt well to rapidly changing market conditions. We introduce a new framework for dynamic Vega hedging, the Adaptive Nesterov Accelerated Distributional Deep Hedging (ANADDH), which combines distributional reinforcement learning with a tailored design based on adaptive Nesterov acceleration. This approach improves the learning process in complex financial environments by modeling the hedging efficiency distribution, providing a more accurate and responsive hedging strategy. The design of adaptive Nesterov acceleration refines gradient momentum adjustments, significantly enhancing the stability and speed of convergence of the model. Through empirical analysis and comparisons, our method demonstrates substantial performance gains over existing hedging techniques. Our results confirm that this innovative combination of distributional reinforcement learning with the proposed optimization techniques improves financial risk management and highlights the practical benefits of implementing advanced neural network architectures in the finance sector. ...

EX-DRL: Hedging Against Heavy Losses with EXtreme Distributional Reinforcement Learning ArXiv ID: 2408.12446 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Recent advancements in Distributional Reinforcement Learning (DRL) for modeling loss distributions have shown promise in developing hedging strategies in derivatives markets. A common approach in DRL involves learning the quantiles of loss distributions at specified levels using Quantile Regression (QR). This method is particularly effective in option hedging due to its direct quantile-based risk assessment, such as Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). However, these risk measures depend on the accurate estimation of extreme quantiles in the loss distribution’s tail, which can be imprecise in QR-based DRL due to the rarity and extremity of tail data, as highlighted in the literature. To address this issue, we propose EXtreme DRL (EX-DRL), which enhances extreme quantile prediction by modeling the tail of the loss distribution with a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). This method introduces supplementary data to mitigate the scarcity of extreme quantile observations, thereby improving estimation accuracy through QR. Comprehensive experiments on gamma hedging options demonstrate that EX-DRL improves existing QR-based models by providing more precise estimates of extreme quantiles, thereby improving the computation and reliability of risk metrics for complex financial risk management. ...

Exploiting Distributional Value Functions for Financial Market Valuation, Enhanced Feature Creation and Improvement of Trading Algorithms ArXiv ID: 2405.11686 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract While research of reinforcement learning applied to financial markets predominantly concentrates on finding optimal behaviours, it is worth to realize that the reinforcement learning returns $G_t$ and state value functions themselves are of interest and play a pivotal role in the evaluation of assets. Instead of focussing on the more complex task of finding optimal decision rules, this paper studies and applies the power of distributional state value functions in the context of financial market valuation and machine learning based trading algorithms. Accurate and trustworthy estimates of the distributions of $G_t$ provide a competitive edge leading to better informed decisions and more optimal behaviour. Herein, ideas from predictive knowledge and deep reinforcement learning are combined to introduce a novel family of models called CDG-Model, resulting in a highly flexible framework and intuitive approach with minimal assumptions regarding underlying distributions. The models allow seamless integration of typical financial modelling pitfalls like transaction costs, slippage and other possible costs or benefits into the model calculation. They can be applied to any kind of trading strategy or asset class. The frameworks introduced provide concrete business value through their potential in market valuation of single assets and portfolios, in the comparison of strategies as well as in the improvement of market timing. They can positively impact the performance and enhance the learning process of existing or new trading algorithms. They are of interest from a scientific point-of-view and open up multiple areas of future research. Initial implementations and tests were performed on real market data. While the results are promising, applying a robust statistical framework to evaluate the models in general remains a challenge and further investigations are needed. ...