Elastic Net

Regularization for electricity price forecasting ArXiv ID: 2404.03968 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The most commonly used form of regularization typically involves defining the penalty function as a L1 or L2 norm. However, numerous alternative approaches remain untested in practical applications. In this study, we apply ten different penalty functions to predict electricity prices and evaluate their performance under two different model structures and in two distinct electricity markets. The study reveals that LQ and elastic net consistently produce more accurate forecasts compared to other regularization types. In particular, they were the only types of penalty functions that consistently produced more accurate forecasts than the most commonly used LASSO. Furthermore, the results suggest that cross-validation outperforms Bayesian information criteria for parameter optimization, and performs as well as models with ex-post parameter selection. ...

Maximizing Portfolio Predictability with Machine Learning ArXiv ID: 2311.01985 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We construct the maximally predictable portfolio (MPP) of stocks using machine learning. Solving for the optimal constrained weights in the multi-asset MPP gives portfolios with a high monthly coefficient of determination, given the sample covariance matrix of predicted return errors from a machine learning model. Various models for the covariance matrix are tested. The MPPs of S&P 500 index constituents with estimated returns from Elastic Net, Random Forest, and Support Vector Regression models can outperform or underperform the index depending on the time period. Portfolios that take advantage of the high predictability of the MPP’s returns and employ a Kelly criterion style strategy consistently outperform the benchmark. ...

On Unified Adaptive Portfolio Management ArXiv ID: 2307.03391 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper introduces a unified framework for adaptive portfolio management, integrating dynamic Black-Litterman (BL) optimization with the general factor model, Elastic Net regression, and mean-variance portfolio optimization, which allows us to generate investors views and mitigate potential estimation errors systematically. Specifically, we propose an innovative dynamic sliding window algorithm to respond to the constantly changing market conditions. This algorithm allows for the flexible window size adjustment based on market volatility, generating robust estimates for factor modeling, time-varying BL estimations, and optimal portfolio weights. Through extensive ten-year empirical studies using the top 100 capitalized assets in the S&P 500 index, accounting for turnover transaction costs, we demonstrate that this combined approach leads to computational advantages and promising trading performances. ...