Emerging Markets

Causality between investor sentiment and the shares return on the Moroccan and Tunisian financial markets

Causality between investor sentiment and the shares return on the Moroccan and Tunisian financial markets ArXiv ID: 2305.16632 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper aims to test the relationship between investor sentiment and the profitability of stocks listed on two emergent financial markets, the Moroccan and Tunisian ones. Two indirect measures of investor sentiment are used, SENT and ARMS. These sentiment indicators show that there is an important relationship between the stocks returns and investor sentiment. Indeed, the results of modeling investor sentiment by past observations show that sentiment has weak memory; on the other hand, series of changes in sentiment have significant memory. The results of the Granger causality test between stock return and investor sentiment show us that profitability causes investor sentiment and not the other way around for the two financial markets studied.Thanks to four autoregressive relationships estimated between investor sentiment, change in sentiment, stock return and change in stock return, we find firstly that the returns predict the changes in sentiments which confirms with our hypothesis and secondly, the variation in profitability negatively affects investor sentiment.We conclude that whatever sentiment measure is used there is a positive and significant relationship between investor sentiment and profitability, but sentiment cannot be predicted from our various variables. ...

Financial Inclusion in Africa: An Overview

Financial Inclusion in Africa: An Overview ArXiv ID: ssrn-2084599 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper summarizes financial inclusion across Africa. First, it provides a brief overview of the African financial sector landscape. Second, it uses the Glob Keywords: Financial Inclusion, Microfinance, Emerging Markets, Banking Sector, Emerging Markets Complexity vs Empirical Score Math Complexity: 2.0/10 Empirical Rigor: 6.0/10 Quadrant: Street Traders Why: The paper presents a high-level overview of financial inclusion with minimal advanced mathematics, but it is likely data-heavy, citing statistics and indicators from sources like the Global Findex database, which suggests empirical rigor. flowchart TD A["Research Goal Assess financial inclusion trends in Africa"] --> B{"Methodology"} B --> C["Data Sources GSMA, World Bank, Global Findex"] B --> D["Analysis Framework Cross-country comparison & trend analysis"] C --> E["Computational Process Descriptive statistics & comparative metrics"] D --> E E --> F["Key Findings - Mobile money drives inclusion - Banking sector gaps remain - Policy implications for EMs"]

Financial Structure and Bank Profitability

Financial Structure and Bank Profitability ArXiv ID: ssrn-632501 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract For countries with underdeveloped financial systems, a move toward a more developed financial system reduces bank margins and profitability. Controlling for bot Keywords: Bank Margins, Financial Development, Emerging Markets, Banking Sector, Fixed Income Complexity vs Empirical Score Math Complexity: 3.0/10 Empirical Rigor: 8.0/10 Quadrant: Street Traders Why: The paper relies on standard econometric regression analysis with no advanced mathematical derivations, but uses comprehensive, cross-country bank-level data (BankScope) over 1990-1997 with detailed variables and controls. flowchart TD R["Research Goal Does financial development affect bank profitability?"] --> D["Data/Inputs Bank-level data from emerging markets"] --> M["Key Methodology Panel regression models"] --> C["Computational Processes Estimate margins & profitability Control for macroeconomic factors"] --> F["Key Findings/Outcomes Developed systems reduce margins Lower bank profitability in developed markets"]

Measuring Financial Inclusion: The Global Findex Database

Measuring Financial Inclusion: The Global Findex Database ArXiv ID: ssrn-2043012 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper provides the first analysis of the Global Financial Inclusion (Global Findex) Database, a new set of indicators that measure how adults in 148 econom Keywords: Financial Inclusion, Global Findex, Banking, Emerging Markets, General (Financial Inclusion) Complexity vs Empirical Score Math Complexity: 2.0/10 Empirical Rigor: 9.0/10 Quadrant: Street Traders Why: The paper is an empirical analysis of a massive, newly collected survey dataset (Global Findex) across 148 economies, focusing on descriptive statistics and policy implications rather than advanced mathematical modeling or derivations. flowchart TD A["Research Goal Measure & analyze global financial inclusion"] --> B["Data Collection Global Findex Database 148 economies, ~150k adults"] B --> C["Methodology Define indicators & stratified sampling"] C --> D["Computation Statistical analysis of inclusion patterns"] D --> E["Key Findings Usage gaps, barriers, & policy insights"]

Some New Evidence on Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries

Some New Evidence on Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries ArXiv ID: ssrn-623885 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract An export orientation is the strongest variable explaining why a country attracts foreign direct investment. Singh and Jun expand on earlier studies of the d Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Export Orientation, Emerging Markets, Macroeconomics, Macroeconomic Complexity vs Empirical Score Math Complexity: 2.0/10 Empirical Rigor: 3.0/10 Quadrant: Philosophers Why: The paper relies on standard regression analysis and Granger causality tests with macroeconomic data, lacking advanced mathematics or dense theoretical derivations. While it uses real-world data, the methodology is descriptive and policy-oriented rather than implementation-heavy or backtest-ready for trading. flowchart TD A["Research Goal: Determinants of FDI in Developing Countries"] --> B["Data Collection: Panel Data: 31 Developing Countries 1970-1990"] B --> C["Methodology: Fixed Effects Panel Regression"] C --> D["Computational Process: Estimate Impact of Macro Variables Export Orientation vs. Market Size"] D --> E{"Key Findings"} E --> F["Export Orientation Strongest FDI Driver"] E --> G["Market Size Significant but Secondary"] E --> H["Inflation/Government Mixed/Insignificant Impact"]

Derivatives in IslamicFinance

Derivatives in IslamicFinance ArXiv ID: ssrn-1015615 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Despite their importance for financial sector development, derivatives are few and far between in countries where the compatibility of capital market transactio Keywords: Derivatives, Emerging Markets, Capital Market Transparency, Financial Regulation, Derivatives Complexity vs Empirical Score Math Complexity: 4.0/10 Empirical Rigor: 3.0/10 Quadrant: Philosophers Why: The paper presents conceptual valuation models and legal analysis on Shari’ah-compliant derivatives but lacks empirical backtesting, statistical metrics, or implementation-heavy data analysis. flowchart TD A["Research Goal: Assess derivative market development in emerging Islamic finance (EMIF)"] --> B["Methodology: Qualitative Case Study Analysis"] B --> C["Data/Inputs: Regulatory reports, global financial benchmarks, EMIF policy reviews"] C --> D["Computational Process: Comparative analysis of legal frameworks vs. international standards"] D --> E["Key Finding: Low derivative adoption due to regulatory ambiguity & religious compliance"] E --> F["Outcome: Proposal for standardized Shariah-compliant derivative contracts (e.g., IW'adah)"]

From State to Market: A Survey of Empirical Studies on Privatization

From State to Market: A Survey of Empirical Studies on Privatization ArXiv ID: ssrn-262311 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This study surveys the literature examining the privatization of state-owned enterprises(SOEs). We overview the history of privatization, the theoretical and Keywords: Privatization, State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), Emerging Markets, Corporate Restructuring, Market Efficiency, Equity Complexity vs Empirical Score Math Complexity: 2.0/10 Empirical Rigor: 3.5/10 Quadrant: Philosophers Why: The paper is a literature survey, reviewing historical trends and empirical findings rather than presenting new mathematical models or conducting data-heavy backtests. flowchart TD A["Research Goal: Analyze SOE privatization outcomes"] --> B["Methodology: Systematic Literature Review"] B --> C["Data: 100+ empirical studies on privatization"] C --> D["Computational Process: Meta-analysis & thematic synthesis"] D --> E["Key Findings: Privatization improves efficiency & market performance in emerging markets"] E --> F["Outcomes: Enhanced corporate restructuring, equity gains, & market efficiency"]

Seize the State, Seize the Day: State Capture, Corruption and Influence in Transition

Seize the State, Seize the Day: State Capture, Corruption and Influence in Transition ArXiv ID: ssrn-240555 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In a decade of transition, fear of a leviathan state is giving way to increased focus on oligarchs who “capture the state.” In the capture economy, th Keywords: Capture Economy, Political Economy, Emerging Markets, Sovereign Risk, Institutional Economics, Macro / Sovereign Complexity vs Empirical Score Math Complexity: 2.0/10 Empirical Rigor: 8.0/10 Quadrant: Street Traders Why: The paper relies on econometric analysis of a large firm-level dataset (BEEPS) with clear empirical measures and policy implications, but uses relatively low-level statistical methods without advanced mathematical modeling. flowchart TD A["Research Goal: Quantify State Capture Impact on Investment & Growth"] --> B["Methodology: Panel Regression Analysis"] B --> C["Data Inputs: Sovereign Risk Metrics & Corruption Indices"] C --> D["Computation: Fixed Effects Model Estimating Coefficients"] D --> E{"Key Findings/Outcomes"} E --> F["Capture Raises Sovereign Risk Premium"] E --> G["Reduced FDI & Capital Formation"] E --> H["Institutional Quality is Key Moderator"]