Equities

Collaborative Optimization in Financial Data Mining Through Deep Learning and ResNeXt ArXiv ID: 2412.17314 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This study proposes a multi-task learning framework based on ResNeXt, aiming to solve the problem of feature extraction and task collaborative optimization in financial data mining. Financial data usually has the complex characteristics of high dimensionality, nonlinearity, and time series, and is accompanied by potential correlations between multiple tasks, making it difficult for traditional methods to meet the needs of data mining. This study introduces the ResNeXt model into the multi-task learning framework and makes full use of its group convolution mechanism to achieve efficient extraction of local patterns and global features of financial data. At the same time, through the design of task sharing layers and dedicated layers, it is established between multiple related tasks. Deep collaborative optimization relationships. Through flexible multi-task loss weight design, the model can effectively balance the learning needs of different tasks and improve overall performance. Experiments are conducted on a real S&P 500 financial data set, verifying the significant advantages of the proposed framework in classification and regression tasks. The results indicate that, when compared to other conventional deep learning models, the proposed method delivers superior performance in terms of accuracy, F1 score, root mean square error, and other metrics, highlighting its outstanding effectiveness and robustness in handling complex financial data. This research provides an efficient and adaptable solution for financial data mining, and at the same time opens up a new research direction for the combination of multi-task learning and deep learning, which has important theoretical significance and practical application value. ...

Multimodal Deep Reinforcement Learning for Portfolio Optimization ArXiv ID: 2412.17293 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We propose a reinforcement learning (RL) framework that leverages multimodal data including historical stock prices, sentiment analysis, and topic embeddings from news articles, to optimize trading strategies for SP100 stocks. Building upon recent advancements in financial reinforcement learning, we aim to enhance the state space representation by integrating financial sentiment data from SEC filings and news headlines and refining the reward function to better align with portfolio performance metrics. Our methodology includes deep reinforcement learning with state tensors comprising price data, sentiment scores, and news embeddings, processed through advanced feature extraction models like CNNs and RNNs. By benchmarking against traditional portfolio optimization techniques and advanced strategies, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in delivering superior portfolio performance. Empirical results showcase the potential of our agent to outperform standard benchmarks, especially when utilizing combined data sources under profit-based reward functions. ...

A Deep Learning Approach for Trading Factor Residuals ArXiv ID: 2412.11432 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The residuals in factor models prevalent in asset pricing presents opportunities to exploit the mis-pricing from unexplained cross-sectional variation for arbitrage. We performed a replication of the methodology of Guijarro-Ordonez et al. (2019) (G-P-Z) on Deep Learning Statistical Arbitrage (DLSA), originally applied to U.S. equity data from 1998 to 2016, using a more recent out-of-sample period from 2016 to 2024. Adhering strictly to point-in-time (PIT) principles and ensuring no information leakage, we follow the same data pre-processing, factor modeling, and deep learning architectures (CNNs and Transformers) as outlined by G-P-Z. Our replication yields unusually strong performance metrics in certain tests, with out-of-sample Sharpe ratios occasionally exceeding 10. While such results are intriguing, they may indicate model overfitting, highly specific market conditions, or insufficient accounting for transaction costs and market impact. Further examination and robustness checks are needed to align these findings with the more modest improvements reported in the original study. (This work was conducted as the final project for IEOR 4576: Data-Driven Methods in Finance at Columbia University.) ...

Cost-aware Portfolios in a Large Universe of Assets ArXiv ID: 2412.11575 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper considers the finite horizon portfolio rebalancing problem in terms of mean-variance optimization, where decisions are made based on current information on asset returns and transaction costs. The study’s novelty is that the transaction costs are integrated within the optimization problem in a high-dimensional portfolio setting where the number of assets is larger than the sample size. We propose portfolio construction and rebalancing models with nonconvex penalty considering two types of transaction cost, the proportional transaction cost and the quadratic transaction cost. We establish the desired theoretical properties under mild regularity conditions. Monte Carlo simulations and empirical studies using S&P 500 and Russell 2000 stocks show the satisfactory performance of the proposed portfolio and highlight the importance of involving the transaction costs when rebalancing a portfolio. ...

S&P 500 Trend Prediction ArXiv ID: 2412.11462 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This project aims to predict short-term and long-term upward trends in the S&P 500 index using machine learning models and feature engineering based on the “101 Formulaic Alphas” methodology. The study employed multiple models, including Logistic Regression, Decision Trees, Random Forests, Neural Networks, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and XGBoost, to identify market trends from historical stock data collected from Yahoo! Finance. Data preprocessing involved handling missing values, standardization, and iterative feature selection to ensure relevance and variability. For short-term predictions, KNN emerged as the most effective model, delivering robust performance with high recall for upward trends, while for long-term forecasts, XGBoost demonstrated the highest accuracy and AUC scores after hyperparameter tuning and class imbalance adjustments using SMOTE. Feature importance analysis highlighted the dominance of momentum-based and volume-related indicators in driving predictions. However, models exhibited limitations such as overfitting and low recall for positive market movements, particularly in imbalanced datasets. The study concludes that KNN is ideal for short-term alerts, whereas XGBoost is better suited for long-term trend forecasting. Future enhancements could include advanced architectures like Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and further feature refinement to improve precision and generalizability. These findings contribute to developing reliable machine learning tools for market trend prediction and investment decision-making. ...

From Votes to Volatility Predicting the Stock Market on Election Day ArXiv ID: 2412.11192 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Stock market forecasting has been a topic of extensive research, aiming to provide investors with optimal stock recommendations for higher returns. In recent years, this field has gained even more attention due to the widespread adoption of deep learning models. While these models have achieved impressive accuracy in predicting stock behavior, tailoring them to specific scenarios has become increasingly important. Election Day represents one such critical scenario, characterized by intensified market volatility, as the winning candidate’s policies significantly impact various economic sectors and companies. To address this challenge, we propose the Election Day Stock Market Forecasting (EDSMF) Model. Our approach leverages the contextual capabilities of large language models alongside specialized agents designed to analyze the political and economic consequences of elections. By building on a state-of-the-art architecture, we demonstrate that EDSMF improves the predictive performance of the S&P 500 during this uniquely volatile day. ...

Auto-Regressive Control of Execution Costs ArXiv ID: 2412.10947 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Bertsimas and Lo’s seminal work established a foundational framework for addressing the implementation shortfall dilemma faced by large institutional investors. Their models emphasized the critical role of accurate knowledge of market microstructure and price/information dynamics in optimizing trades to minimize execution costs. However, this paper recognizes that perfect initial knowledge may not be a realistic assumption for new investors entering the market. Therefore, this study aims to bridge this gap by proposing an approach that iteratively derives OLS estimates of the market parameters from period to period. This methodology enables uninformed investors to engage in the market dynamically, adjusting their strategies over time based on evolving estimates, thus offering a practical solution for navigating the complexities of execution cost optimization without perfect initial knowledge. ...

Classification of Financial Data Using Quantum Support Vector Machine ArXiv ID: 2412.10860 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Quantum Support Vector Machine is a kernel-based approach to classification problems. We study the applicability of quantum kernels to financial data, specifically our self-curated Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSEx) Broad Index dataset. To the best of our knowledge, this is the very first systematic research work on this dataset on the application of quantum kernel. We report empirical quantum advantage in our work, using several quantum kernels and proposing the best one for this dataset while verifying the Phase Space Terrain Ruggedness Index metric. We estimate the resources needed to carry out these investigations on a larger scale for future practitioners. ...

FinGPT: Enhancing Sentiment-Based Stock Movement Prediction with Dissemination-Aware and Context-Enriched LLMs ArXiv ID: 2412.10823 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Financial sentiment analysis is crucial for understanding the influence of news on stock prices. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have been widely adopted for this purpose due to their advanced text analysis capabilities. However, these models often only consider the news content itself, ignoring its dissemination, which hampers accurate prediction of short-term stock movements. Additionally, current methods often lack sufficient contextual data and explicit instructions in their prompts, limiting LLMs’ ability to interpret news. In this paper, we propose a data-driven approach that enhances LLM-powered sentiment-based stock movement predictions by incorporating news dissemination breadth, contextual data, and explicit instructions. We cluster recent company-related news to assess its reach and influence, enriching prompts with more specific data and precise instructions. This data is used to construct an instruction tuning dataset to fine-tune an LLM for predicting short-term stock price movements. Our experimental results show that our approach improves prediction accuracy by 8% compared to existing methods. ...

Stochastic Gradient Descent in the Optimal Control of Execution Costs ArXiv ID: 2412.12199 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Bertsimas and Lo’s seminal work laid the groundwork for addressing the implementation shortfall dilemma in institutional investing, emphasizing the significance of market microstructure and price dynamics in minimizing execution costs. However, the ability to derive a theoretical Optimum market order policy is an unrealistic assumption for many investors. This study aims to bridge this gap by proposing an approach that leverages stochastic gradient descent (SGD) to derive alternative solutions for optimizing execution cost policies in dynamic markets where explicit mathematical solutions may not yet exist. The proposed methodology assumes the existence of a mathematically derived optimal solution that is a function of the underlying market dynamics. By iteratively refining strategies using SGD, economists can adapt their approaches over time based on evolving execution strategies. While these SGD-based solutions may not achieve optimality, they offer valuable insights into optimizing policies under complex market frameworks. These results serve as a bridge for economists and mathematicians, facilitating the study of the Optimum policy volatile markets while offering SGD driven implementable policies that closely approximate optimal outcomes within shorter time frames. ...