Equities

SusGen-GPT: A Data-Centric LLM for Financial NLP and Sustainability Report Generation ArXiv ID: 2412.10906 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The rapid growth of the financial sector and the rising focus on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) considerations highlight the need for advanced NLP tools. However, open-source LLMs proficient in both finance and ESG domains remain scarce. To address this gap, we introduce SusGen-30K, a category-balanced dataset comprising seven financial NLP tasks and ESG report generation, and propose TCFD-Bench, a benchmark for evaluating sustainability report generation. Leveraging this dataset, we developed SusGen-GPT, a suite of models achieving state-of-the-art performance across six adapted and two off-the-shelf tasks, trailing GPT-4 by only 2% despite using 7-8B parameters compared to GPT-4’s 1,700B. Based on this, we propose the SusGen system, integrated with Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), to assist in sustainability report generation. This work demonstrates the efficiency of our approach, advancing research in finance and ESG. ...

Higher Order Transformers: Enhancing Stock Movement Prediction On Multimodal Time-Series Data ArXiv ID: 2412.10540 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In this paper, we tackle the challenge of predicting stock movements in financial markets by introducing Higher Order Transformers, a novel architecture designed for processing multivariate time-series data. We extend the self-attention mechanism and the transformer architecture to a higher order, effectively capturing complex market dynamics across time and variables. To manage computational complexity, we propose a low-rank approximation of the potentially large attention tensor using tensor decomposition and employ kernel attention, reducing complexity to linear with respect to the data size. Additionally, we present an encoder-decoder model that integrates technical and fundamental analysis, utilizing multimodal signals from historical prices and related tweets. Our experiments on the Stocknet dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, highlighting its potential for enhancing stock movement prediction in financial markets. ...

Integrative Analysis of Financial Market Sentiment Using CNN and GRU for Risk Prediction and Alert Systems ArXiv ID: 2412.10199 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This document presents an in-depth examination of stock market sentiment through the integration of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), enabling precise risk alerts. The robust feature extraction capability of CNN is utilized to preprocess and analyze extensive network text data, identifying local features and patterns. The extracted feature sequences are then input into the GRU model to understand the progression of emotional states over time and their potential impact on future market sentiment and risk. This approach addresses the order dependence and long-term dependencies inherent in time series data, resulting in a detailed analysis of stock market sentiment and effective early warnings of future risks. ...

Geometric Deep Learning for Realized Covariance Matrix Forecasting ArXiv ID: 2412.09517 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Traditional methods employed in matrix volatility forecasting often overlook the inherent Riemannian manifold structure of symmetric positive definite matrices, treating them as elements of Euclidean space, which can lead to suboptimal predictive performance. Moreover, they often struggle to handle high-dimensional matrices. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for forecasting realized covariance matrices of asset returns using a Riemannian-geometry-aware deep learning framework. In this way, we account for the geometric properties of the covariance matrices, including possible non-linear dynamics and efficient handling of high-dimensionality. Moreover, building upon a Fréchet sample mean of realized covariance matrices, we are able to extend the HAR model to the matrix-variate. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach using daily realized covariance matrices for the 50 most capitalized companies in the S&P 500 index, showing that our method outperforms traditional approaches in terms of predictive accuracy. ...

LLMs for Time Series: an Application for Single Stocks and Statistical Arbitrage ArXiv ID: 2412.09394 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Recently, LLMs (Large Language Models) have been adapted for time series prediction with significant success in pattern recognition. However, the common belief is that these models are not suitable for predicting financial market returns, which are known to be almost random. We aim to challenge this misconception through a counterexample. Specifically, we utilized the Chronos model from Ansari et al.(2024) and tested both pretrained configurations and fine-tuned supervised forecasts on the largest American single stocks using data from Guijarro-Ordonnez et al.(2022). We constructed a long/short portfolio, and the performance simulation indicates that LLMs can in reality handle time series that are nearly indistinguishable from noise, demonstrating an ability to identify inefficiencies amidst randomness and generate alpha. Finally, we compared these results with those of specialized models and smaller deep learning models, highlighting significant room for improvement in LLM performance to further enhance their predictive capabilities. ...

High-dimensional covariance matrix estimators on simulated portfolios with complex structures ArXiv ID: 2412.08756 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We study the allocation of synthetic portfolios under hierarchical nested, one-factor, and diagonal structures of the population covariance matrix in a high-dimensional scenario. The noise reduction approaches for the sample realizations are based on random matrices, free probability, deterministic equivalents, and their combination with a data science hierarchical method known as two-step covariance estimators. The financial performance metrics from the simulations are compared with empirical data from companies comprising the S&P 500 index using a moving window and walk-forward analysis. The portfolio allocation strategies analyzed include the minimum variance portfolio (both with and without short-selling constraints) and the hierarchical risk parity approach. Our proposed hierarchical nested covariance model shows signatures of complex system interactions. The empirical financial data reproduces stylized portfolio facts observed in the complex and one-factor covariance models. The two-step estimators proposed here improve several financial metrics under the analyzed investment strategies. The results pave the way for new risk management and diversification approaches when the number of assets is of the same order as the number of transaction days in the investment portfolio. ...

NEAT Algorithm-based Stock Trading Strategy with Multiple Technical Indicators Resonance ArXiv ID: 2501.14736 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In this study, we applied the NEAT (NeuroEvolution of Augmenting Topologies) algorithm to stock trading using multiple technical indicators. Our approach focused on maximizing earning, avoiding risk, and outperforming the Buy & Hold strategy. We used progressive training data and a multi-objective fitness function to guide the evolution of the population towards these objectives. The results of our study showed that the NEAT model achieved similar returns to the Buy & Hold strategy, but with lower risk exposure and greater stability. We also identified some challenges in the training process, including the presence of a large number of unused nodes and connections in the model architecture. In future work, it may be worthwhile to explore ways to improve the NEAT algorithm and apply it to shorter interval data in order to assess the potential impact on performance. ...

RAG-IT: Retrieval-Augmented Instruction Tuning for Automated Financial Analysis – A Case Study for the Semiconductor Sector ArXiv ID: 2412.08179 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Financial analysis relies heavily on the interpretation of earnings reports to assess company performance and guide decision-making. Traditional methods for generating such analyzes require significant financial expertise and are often time-consuming. With the rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs), domain-specific adaptations have emerged for financial tasks such as sentiment analysis and entity recognition. This paper introduces RAG-IT (Retrieval-Augmented Instruction Tuning), a novel framework designed to automate the generation of earnings report analysis through an LLM fine-tuned specifically for the financial domain. Our approach integrates retrieval augmentation with instruction-based fine-tuning to enhance factual accuracy, contextual relevance, and domain adaptability. We construct a sector-specific financial instruction dataset derived from semiconductor industry documents to guide the LLM adaptation to specialized financial reasoning. Using NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom as representative companies, our case study demonstrates that RAG-IT substantially improves a general-purpose open-source LLM and achieves performance comparable to commercial systems like GPT-3.5 on financial report generation tasks. This research highlights the potential of retrieval-augmented instruction tuning to streamline and elevate financial analysis automation, advancing the broader field of intelligent financial reporting. ...

A Consolidated Volatility Prediction with Back Propagation Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm ArXiv ID: 2412.07223 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper provides a unique approach with AI algorithms to predict emerging stock markets volatility. Traditionally, stock volatility is derived from historical volatility,Monte Carlo simulation and implied volatility as well. In this paper, the writer designs a consolidated model with back-propagation neural network and genetic algorithm to predict future volatility of emerging stock markets and found that the results are quite accurate with low errors. ...

A Hype-Adjusted Probability Measure for NLP Stock Return Forecasting ArXiv ID: 2412.07587 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This article introduces a Hype-Adjusted Probability Measure in the context of a new Natural Language Processing (NLP) approach for stock return and volatility forecasting. A novel sentiment score equation is proposed to represent the impact of intraday news on forecasting next-period stock return and volatility for selected U.S. semiconductor tickers, a very vibrant industry sector. This work improves the forecast accuracy by addressing news bias, memory, and weight, and incorporating shifts in sentiment direction. More importantly, it extends the use of the remarkable tool of change of Probability Measure developed in the finance of Asset Pricing to NLP forecasting by constructing a Hype-Adjusted Probability Measure, obtained from a redistribution of the weights in the probability space, meant to correct for excessive or insufficient news. ...