Ethereum

Measuring CEX-DEX Extracted Value and Searcher Profitability: The Darkest of the MEV Dark Forest ArXiv ID: 2507.13023 “View on arXiv” Authors: Fei Wu, Danning Sui, Thomas Thiery, Mallesh Pai Abstract This paper provides a comprehensive empirical analysis of the economics and dynamics behind arbitrages between centralized and decentralized exchanges (CEX-DEX) on Ethereum. We refine heuristics to identify arbitrage transactions from on-chain data and introduce a robust empirical framework to estimate arbitrage revenue without knowing traders’ actual behaviors on CEX. Leveraging an extensive dataset spanning 19 months from August 2023 to March 2025, we estimate a total of 233.8M USD extracted by 19 major CEX-DEX searchers from 7,203,560 identified CEX-DEX arbitrages. Our analysis reveals increasing centralization trends as three searchers captured three-quarters of both volume and extracted value. We also demonstrate that searchers’ profitability is tied to their integration level with block builders and uncover exclusive searcher-builder relationships and their market impact. Finally, we correct the previously underestimated profitability of block builders who vertically integrate with a searcher. These insights illuminate the darkest corner of the MEV landscape and highlight the critical implications of CEX-DEX arbitrages for Ethereum’s decentralization. ...

MEV Capture and Decentralization in Execution Tickets ArXiv ID: 2408.11255 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We provide an economic model of Execution Tickets and use it to study the ability of the Ethereum protocol to capture MEV from block construction. We demonstrate that Execution Tickets extract all MEV when all buyers are homogeneous, risk neutral and face no capital costs. We also show that MEV capture decreases with risk aversion and capital costs. Moreover, when buyers are heterogeneous, MEV capture can be especially low and a single dominant buyer can extract much of the MEV. This adverse effect can be partially mitigated by the presence of a Proposer Builder Separation (PBS) mechanism, which gives ET buyers access to a market of specialized builders, but in practice centralization vectors still persist. With PBS, ETs are concentrated among those with the highest ex-ante MEV extraction ability and lowest cost of capital. We show how it is possible that large investors that are not builders but have substantial advantage in capital cost can come to dominate the ET market. ...

Gas Fees on the Ethereum Blockchain: From Foundations to Derivatives Valuations ArXiv ID: 2406.06524 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The gas fee, paid for inclusion in the blockchain, is analyzed in two parts. First, we consider how effort in terms of resources required to process and store a transaction turns into a gas limit, which, through a fee, comprised of the base and priority fee in the current version of Ethereum, is converted into the cost paid by the user. We adhere closely to the Ethereum protocol to simplify the analysis and to constrain the design choices when considering multidimensional gas. Second, we assume that the gas price is given deus ex machina by a fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and evaluate various derivatives. These contracts can, for example, mitigate gas cost volatility. The ability to price and trade forwards besides the existing spot inclusion into the blockchain could enable users to hedge against future cost fluctuations. Overall, this paper offers a comprehensive analysis of gas fee dynamics on the Ethereum blockchain, integrating supply-side constraints with demand-side modelling to enhance the predictability and stability of transaction costs. ...

Quantifying Price Improvement in Order Flow Auctions ArXiv ID: 2405.00537 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This work introduces a framework for evaluating onchain order flow auctions (OFAs), emphasizing the metric of price improvement. Utilizing a set of open-source tools, our methodology systematically attributes price improvements to specific modifiable inputs of the system such as routing efficiency, gas optimization, and priority fee settings. When applied to leading Ethereum-based trading interfaces such as 1Inch and Uniswap, the results reveal that auction-enhanced interfaces can provide statistically significant improvements in trading outcomes, averaging 4-5 basis points in our sample. We further identify the sources of such price improvements to be added liquidity for large swaps. This research lays a foundation for future innovations in blockchain based trading platforms. ...

Investigating Similarities Across Decentralized Financial (DeFi) Services ArXiv ID: 2404.00034 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We explore the adoption of graph representation learning (GRL) algorithms to investigate similarities across services offered by Decentralized Finance (DeFi) protocols. Following existing literature, we use Ethereum transaction data to identify the DeFi building blocks. These are sets of protocol-specific smart contracts that are utilized in combination within single transactions and encapsulate the logic to conduct specific financial services such as swapping or lending cryptoassets. We propose a method to categorize these blocks into clusters based on their smart contract attributes and the graph structure of their smart contract calls. We employ GRL to create embedding vectors from building blocks and agglomerative models for clustering them. To evaluate whether they are effectively grouped in clusters of similar functionalities, we associate them with eight financial functionality categories and use this information as the target label. We find that in the best-case scenario purity reaches .888. We use additional information to associate the building blocks with protocol-specific target labels, obtaining comparable purity (.864) but higher V-Measure (.571); we discuss plausible explanations for this difference. In summary, this method helps categorize existing financial products offered by DeFi protocols, and can effectively automatize the detection of similar DeFi services, especially within protocols. ...

An adaptive network-based approach for advanced forecasting of cryptocurrency values ArXiv ID: 2401.05441 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper describes an architecture for predicting the price of cryptocurrencies for the next seven days using the Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). Historical data of cryptocurrencies and indexes that are considered are Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D), and Ethereum Dominance (ETH.D) in a daily timeframe. The methods used to teach the data are hybrid and backpropagation algorithms, as well as grid partition, subtractive clustering, and Fuzzy C-means clustering (FCM) algorithms, which are used in data clustering. The architectural performance designed in this paper has been compared with different inputs and neural network models in terms of statistical evaluation criteria. Finally, the proposed method can predict the price of digital currencies in a short time. ...

The cost of artificial latency in the PBS context ArXiv ID: 2312.09654 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We present a comprehensive analysis of the implications of artificial latency in the Proposer-Builder Separation framework on the Ethereum network. Focusing on the MEV-Boost auction system, we analyze how strategic latency manipulation affects Maximum Extractable Value yields and network integrity. Our findings reveal both increased profitability for node operators and significant systemic challenges, including heightened network inefficiencies and centralization risks. We empirically validates these insights with a pilot that Chorus One has been operating on Ethereum mainnet. We demonstrate the nuanced effects of latency on bid selection and validator dynamics. Ultimately, this research underscores the need for balanced strategies that optimize Maximum Extractable Value capture while preserving the Ethereum network’s decentralization ethos. ...

Deep Learning and NLP in Cryptocurrency Forecasting: Integrating Financial, Blockchain, and Social Media Data ArXiv ID: 2311.14759 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We introduce novel approaches to cryptocurrency price forecasting, leveraging Machine Learning (ML) and Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques, with a focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum. By analysing news and social media content, primarily from Twitter and Reddit, we assess the impact of public sentiment on cryptocurrency markets. A distinctive feature of our methodology is the application of the BART MNLI zero-shot classification model to detect bullish and bearish trends, significantly advancing beyond traditional sentiment analysis. Additionally, we systematically compare a range of pre-trained and fine-tuned deep learning NLP models against conventional dictionary-based sentiment analysis methods. Another key contribution of our work is the adoption of local extrema alongside daily price movements as predictive targets, reducing trading frequency and portfolio volatility. Our findings demonstrate that integrating textual data into cryptocurrency price forecasting not only improves forecasting accuracy but also consistently enhances the profitability and Sharpe ratio across various validation scenarios, particularly when applying deep learning NLP techniques. The entire codebase of our experiments is made available via an online repository: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/crypto-forecasting-public ...

Improving the Accuracy of Transaction-Based Ponzi Detection on Ethereum ArXiv ID: 2308.16391 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The Ponzi scheme, an old-fashioned fraud, is now popular on the Ethereum blockchain, causing considerable financial losses to many crypto investors. A few Ponzi detection methods have been proposed in the literature, most of which detect a Ponzi scheme based on its smart contract source code. This contract-code-based approach, while achieving very high accuracy, is not robust because a Ponzi developer can fool a detection model by obfuscating the opcode or inventing a new profit distribution logic that cannot be detected. On the contrary, a transaction-based approach could improve the robustness of detection because transactions, unlike smart contracts, are harder to be manipulated. However, the current transaction-based detection models achieve fairly low accuracy. In this paper, we aim to improve the accuracy of the transaction-based models by employing time-series features, which turn out to be crucial in capturing the life-time behaviour a Ponzi application but were completely overlooked in previous works. We propose a new set of 85 features (22 known account-based and 63 new time-series features), which allows off-the-shelf machine learning algorithms to achieve up to 30% higher F1-scores compared to existing works. ...

DecentralizedFinance: On Blockchain- and Smart Contract-Based Financial Markets ArXiv ID: ssrn-3843844 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The term decentralized finance (DeFi) refers to an alternative financial infrastructure built on top of the Ethereum blockchain. DeFi uses smart contracts to cr Keywords: Decentralized Finance (DeFi), Smart Contracts, Blockchain, Ethereum, Tokenomics, Crypto Complexity vs Empirical Score Math Complexity: 1.0/10 Empirical Rigor: 2.0/10 Quadrant: Philosophers Why: The paper is a survey and introduction to DeFi architecture with conceptual frameworks and qualitative descriptions, containing no advanced mathematics, models, or statistical analysis, and it lacks backtest-ready data, implementation details, or empirical results. flowchart TD A["Research Goal:<br>Understanding DeFi Infrastructure"] --> B{"Methodology"}; B --> C["Data Collection:<br>Ethereum Blockchain Logs"]; B --> D["Analysis:<br>Smart Contract Code Review"]; C --> E["Computational Analysis:<br>Tokenomics & Gas Fee Models"]; D --> E; E --> F["Key Findings:<br>1. Automated Market Makers<br>2. Lending Protocols<br>3. Composability Risks"];