Explainable AI

LLM-Powered Multi-Agent System for Automated Crypto Portfolio Management ArXiv ID: 2501.00826 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Cryptocurrency investment is inherently difficult due to its shorter history compared to traditional assets, the need to integrate vast amounts of data from various modalities, and the requirement for complex reasoning. While deep learning approaches have been applied to address these challenges, their black-box nature raises concerns about trust and explainability. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have shown promise in financial applications due to their ability to understand multi-modal data and generate explainable decisions. However, single LLM faces limitations in complex, comprehensive tasks such as asset investment. These limitations are even more pronounced in cryptocurrency investment, where LLMs have less domain-specific knowledge in their training corpora. To overcome these challenges, we propose an explainable, multi-modal, multi-agent framework for cryptocurrency investment. Our framework uses specialized agents that collaborate within and across teams to handle subtasks such as data analysis, literature integration, and investment decision-making for the top 30 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. The expert training module fine-tunes agents using multi-modal historical data and professional investment literature, while the multi-agent investment module employs real-time data to make informed cryptocurrency investment decisions. Unique intrateam and interteam collaboration mechanisms enhance prediction accuracy by adjusting final predictions based on confidence levels within agent teams and facilitating information sharing between teams. Empirical evaluation using data from November 2023 to September 2024 demonstrates that our framework outperforms single-agent models and market benchmarks in classification, asset pricing, portfolio, and explainability performance. ...

Temporal Data Meets LLM – Explainable Financial Time Series Forecasting ArXiv ID: 2306.11025 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper presents a novel study on harnessing Large Language Models’ (LLMs) outstanding knowledge and reasoning abilities for explainable financial time series forecasting. The application of machine learning models to financial time series comes with several challenges, including the difficulty in cross-sequence reasoning and inference, the hurdle of incorporating multi-modal signals from historical news, financial knowledge graphs, etc., and the issue of interpreting and explaining the model results. In this paper, we focus on NASDAQ-100 stocks, making use of publicly accessible historical stock price data, company metadata, and historical economic/financial news. We conduct experiments to illustrate the potential of LLMs in offering a unified solution to the aforementioned challenges. Our experiments include trying zero-shot/few-shot inference with GPT-4 and instruction-based fine-tuning with a public LLM model Open LLaMA. We demonstrate our approach outperforms a few baselines, including the widely applied classic ARMA-GARCH model and a gradient-boosting tree model. Through the performance comparison results and a few examples, we find LLMs can make a well-thought decision by reasoning over information from both textual news and price time series and extracting insights, leveraging cross-sequence information, and utilizing the inherent knowledge embedded within the LLM. Additionally, we show that a publicly available LLM such as Open-LLaMA, after fine-tuning, can comprehend the instruction to generate explainable forecasts and achieve reasonable performance, albeit relatively inferior in comparison to GPT-4. ...