Generative Models

Time series generation for option pricing on quantum computers using tensor network ArXiv ID: 2402.17148 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Finance, especially option pricing, is a promising industrial field that might benefit from quantum computing. While quantum algorithms for option pricing have been proposed, it is desired to devise more efficient implementations of costly operations in the algorithms, one of which is preparing a quantum state that encodes a probability distribution of the underlying asset price. In particular, in pricing a path-dependent option, we need to generate a state encoding a joint distribution of the underlying asset price at multiple time points, which is more demanding. To address these issues, we propose a novel approach using Matrix Product State (MPS) as a generative model for time series generation. To validate our approach, taking the Heston model as a target, we conduct numerical experiments to generate time series in the model. Our findings demonstrate the capability of the MPS model to generate paths in the Heston model, highlighting its potential for path-dependent option pricing on quantum computers. ...

Generative Machine Learning for Multivariate Equity Returns ArXiv ID: 2311.14735 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The use of machine learning to generate synthetic data has grown in popularity with the proliferation of text-to-image models and especially large language models. The core methodology these models use is to learn the distribution of the underlying data, similar to the classical methods common in finance of fitting statistical models to data. In this work, we explore the efficacy of using modern machine learning methods, specifically conditional importance weighted autoencoders (a variant of variational autoencoders) and conditional normalizing flows, for the task of modeling the returns of equities. The main problem we work to address is modeling the joint distribution of all the members of the S&P 500, or, in other words, learning a 500-dimensional joint distribution. We show that this generative model has a broad range of applications in finance, including generating realistic synthetic data, volatility and correlation estimation, risk analysis (e.g., value at risk, or VaR, of portfolios), and portfolio optimization. ...

FinDiff: Diffusion Models for Financial Tabular Data Generation ArXiv ID: 2309.01472 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The sharing of microdata, such as fund holdings and derivative instruments, by regulatory institutions presents a unique challenge due to strict data confidentiality and privacy regulations. These challenges often hinder the ability of both academics and practitioners to conduct collaborative research effectively. The emergence of generative models, particularly diffusion models, capable of synthesizing data mimicking the underlying distributions of real-world data presents a compelling solution. This work introduces ‘FinDiff’, a diffusion model designed to generate real-world financial tabular data for a variety of regulatory downstream tasks, for example economic scenario modeling, stress tests, and fraud detection. The model uses embedding encodings to model mixed modality financial data, comprising both categorical and numeric attributes. The performance of FinDiff in generating synthetic tabular financial data is evaluated against state-of-the-art baseline models using three real-world financial datasets (including two publicly available datasets and one proprietary dataset). Empirical results demonstrate that FinDiff excels in generating synthetic tabular financial data with high fidelity, privacy, and utility. ...

Generative AI for End-to-End Limit Order Book Modelling: A Token-Level Autoregressive Generative Model of Message Flow Using a Deep State Space Network ArXiv ID: 2309.00638 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Developing a generative model of realistic order flow in financial markets is a challenging open problem, with numerous applications for market participants. Addressing this, we propose the first end-to-end autoregressive generative model that generates tokenized limit order book (LOB) messages. These messages are interpreted by a Jax-LOB simulator, which updates the LOB state. To handle long sequences efficiently, the model employs simplified structured state-space layers to process sequences of order book states and tokenized messages. Using LOBSTER data of NASDAQ equity LOBs, we develop a custom tokenizer for message data, converting groups of successive digits to tokens, similar to tokenization in large language models. Out-of-sample results show promising performance in approximating the data distribution, as evidenced by low model perplexity. Furthermore, the mid-price returns calculated from the generated order flow exhibit a significant correlation with the data, indicating impressive conditional forecast performance. Due to the granularity of generated data, and the accuracy of the model, it offers new application areas for future work beyond forecasting, e.g. acting as a world model in high-frequency financial reinforcement learning applications. Overall, our results invite the use and extension of the model in the direction of autoregressive large financial models for the generation of high-frequency financial data and we commit to open-sourcing our code to facilitate future research. ...