Importance Sampling

Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Rare-Event Simulation ArXiv ID: 2601.01642 “View on arXiv” Authors: Dohyun Ahn, Huiyi Chen, Lewen Zheng Abstract Standard rare-event simulation techniques require exact distributional specifications, which limits their effectiveness in the presence of distributional uncertainty. To address this, we develop a novel framework for estimating rare-event probabilities subject to such distributional model risk. Specifically, we focus on computing worst-case rare-event probabilities, defined as a distributionally robust bound against a Wasserstein ambiguity set centered at a specific nominal distribution. By exploiting a dual characterization of this bound, we propose Distributionally Robust Importance Sampling (DRIS), a computationally tractable methodology designed to substantially reduce the variance associated with estimating the dual components. The proposed method is simple to implement and requires low sampling costs. Most importantly, it achieves vanishing relative error, the strongest efficiency guarantee that is notoriously difficult to establish in rare-event simulation. Our numerical studies confirm the superior performance of DRIS against existing benchmarks. ...

Efficient Importance Sampling under Heston Model: Short Maturity and Deep Out-of-the-Money Options ArXiv ID: 2511.19826 “View on arXiv” Authors: Yun-Feng Tu, Chuan-Hsiang Han Abstract This paper investigates asymptotically optimal importance sampling (IS) schemes for pricing European call options under the Heston stochastic volatility model. We focus on two distinct rare-event regimes where standard Monte Carlo methods suffer from significant variance deterioration: the limit as maturity approaches zero and the limit as the strike price tends to infinity. Leveraging the large deviation principle (LDP), we design a state-dependent change of measure derived from the asymptotic behavior of the log-price cumulant generating functions. In the short-maturity regime, we rigorously prove that our proposed IS drift, inspired by the variational characterization of the rate function, achieves logarithmic efficiency (asymptotic optimality) by minimizing the decay rate of the second moment of the estimator. In the deep OTM regime, we introduce a novel slow mean-reversion scaling for the variance process, where the mean-reversion speed scales as the inverse square of the small-noise parameter (defined as the reciprocal of the log-moneyness). We establish that under this specific scaling, the variance process contributes non-trivially to the large deviation rate function, requiring a specialized Riccati analysis to verify optimality. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed method yields substantial variance reduction–characterized by factors exceeding several orders of magnitude–compared to standard estimators in both asymptotic regimes. ...

Effective dimensionality reduction for Greeks computation using Randomized QMC ArXiv ID: 2504.11576 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Global sensitivity analysis is employed to evaluate the effective dimension reduction achieved through Chebyshev interpolation and the conditional pathwise method for Greek estimation of discretely monitored barrier options and arithmetic average Asian options. We compare results from finite difference and Monte Carlo methods with those obtained by using randomized Quasi Monte Carlo combined with Brownian bridge discretization. Additionally, we investigate the benefits of incorporating importance sampling with either the finite difference or Chebyshev interpolation methods. Our findings demonstrate that the reduced effective dimensionality identified through global sensitivity analysis explains the performance advantages of one approach over another. Specifically, the increased smoothness provided by Chebyshev or conditional pathwise methods enhances the convergence rate of randomized Quasi Monte Carlo integration, leading to the significant increase of accuracy and reduced computational costs. ...

A General Framework for Importance Sampling with Markov Random Walks ArXiv ID: 2311.12330 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Although stochastic models driven by latent Markov processes are widely used, the classical importance sampling methods based on the exponential tilting for these models suffers from the difficulties in computing the eigenvalues and associated eigenfunctions and the plausibility of the indirect asymptotic large deviation regime for the variance of the estimator. We propose a general importance sampling framework that twists the observable and latent processes separately using a link function that directly minimizes the estimator’s variance. An optimal choice of the link function is chosen within the locally asymptotically normal family. We show the logarithmic efficiency of the proposed estimator. As applications, we estimate an overflow probability under a pandemic model and the CoVaR, a measurement of the co-dependent financial systemic risk. Both applications are beyond the scope of traditional importance sampling methods due to their nonlinear features. ...

Bayesian Forecasting of Stock Returns on the JSE using Simultaneous Graphical Dynamic Linear Models ArXiv ID: 2307.08665 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Cross-series dependencies are crucial in obtaining accurate forecasts when forecasting a multivariate time series. Simultaneous Graphical Dynamic Linear Models (SGDLMs) are Bayesian models that elegantly capture cross-series dependencies. This study forecasts returns of a 40-dimensional time series of stock data from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) using SGDLMs. The SGDLM approach involves constructing a customised dynamic linear model (DLM) for each univariate time series. At each time point, the DLMs are recoupled using importance sampling and decoupled using mean-field variational Bayes. Our results suggest that SGDLMs forecast stock data on the JSE accurately and respond to market gyrations effectively. ...