Improved GRU

MCI-GRU: Stock Prediction Model Based on Multi-Head Cross-Attention and Improved GRU ArXiv ID: 2410.20679 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract As financial markets grow increasingly complex in the big data era, accurate stock prediction has become more critical. Traditional time series models, such as GRUs, have been widely used but often struggle to capture the intricate nonlinear dynamics of markets, particularly in the flexible selection and effective utilization of key historical information. Recently, methods like Graph Neural Networks and Reinforcement Learning have shown promise in stock prediction but require high data quality and quantity, and they tend to exhibit instability when dealing with data sparsity and noise. Moreover, the training and inference processes for these models are typically complex and computationally expensive, limiting their broad deployment in practical applications. Existing approaches also generally struggle to capture unobservable latent market states effectively, such as market sentiment and expectations, microstructural factors, and participant behavior patterns, leading to an inadequate understanding of market dynamics and subsequently impact prediction accuracy. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a stock prediction model, MCI-GRU, based on a multi-head cross-attention mechanism and an improved GRU. First, we enhance the GRU model by replacing the reset gate with an attention mechanism, thereby increasing the model’s flexibility in selecting and utilizing historical information. Second, we design a multi-head cross-attention mechanism for learning unobservable latent market state representations, which are further enriched through interactions with both temporal features and cross-sectional features. Finally, extensive experiments on four main stock markets show that the proposed method outperforms SOTA techniques across multiple metrics. Additionally, its successful application in real-world fund management operations confirms its effectiveness and practicality. ...

LSR-IGRU: Stock Trend Prediction Based on Long Short-Term Relationships and Improved GRU ArXiv ID: 2409.08282 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Stock price prediction is a challenging problem in the field of finance and receives widespread attention. In recent years, with the rapid development of technologies such as deep learning and graph neural networks, more research methods have begun to focus on exploring the interrelationships between stocks. However, existing methods mostly focus on the short-term dynamic relationships of stocks and directly integrating relationship information with temporal information. They often overlook the complex nonlinear dynamic characteristics and potential higher-order interaction relationships among stocks in the stock market. Therefore, we propose a stock price trend prediction model named LSR-IGRU in this paper, which is based on long short-term stock relationships and an improved GRU input. Firstly, we construct a long short-term relationship matrix between stocks, where secondary industry information is employed for the first time to capture long-term relationships of stocks, and overnight price information is utilized to establish short-term relationships. Next, we improve the inputs of the GRU model at each step, enabling the model to more effectively integrate temporal information and long short-term relationship information, thereby significantly improving the accuracy of predicting stock trend changes. Finally, through extensive experiments on multiple datasets from stock markets in China and the United States, we validate the superiority of the proposed LSR-IGRU model over the current state-of-the-art baseline models. We also apply the proposed model to the algorithmic trading system of a financial company, achieving significantly higher cumulative portfolio returns compared to other baseline methods. Our sources are released at https://github.com/ZP1481616577/Baselines_LSR-IGRU. ...