Incomplete Markets

Constrained deep learning for pricing and hedging european options in incomplete markets ArXiv ID: 2511.20837 “View on arXiv” Authors: Nicolas Baradel Abstract In incomplete financial markets, pricing and hedging European options lack a unique no-arbitrage solution due to unhedgeable risks. This paper introduces a constrained deep learning approach to determine option prices and hedging strategies that minimize the Profit and Loss (P&L) distribution around zero. We employ a single neural network to represent the option price function, with its gradient serving as the hedging strategy, optimized via a loss function enforcing the self-financing portfolio condition. A key challenge arises from the non-smooth nature of option payoffs (e.g., vanilla calls are non-differentiable at-the-money, while digital options are discontinuous), which conflicts with the inherent smoothness of standard neural networks. To address this, we compare unconstrained networks against constrained architectures that explicitly embed the terminal payoff condition, drawing inspiration from PDE-solving techniques. Our framework assumes two tradable assets: the underlying and a liquid call option capturing volatility dynamics. Numerical experiments evaluate the method on simple options with varying non-smoothness, the exotic Equinox option, and scenarios with market jumps for robustness. Results demonstrate superior P&L distributions, highlighting the efficacy of constrained networks in handling realistic payoffs. This work advances machine learning applications in quantitative finance by integrating boundary constraints, offering a practical tool for pricing and hedging in incomplete markets. ...

Optimal Investment and Consumption in a Stochastic Factor Model ArXiv ID: 2509.09452 “View on arXiv” Authors: Florian Gutekunst, Martin Herdegen, David Hobson Abstract In this article, we study optimal investment and consumption in an incomplete stochastic factor model for a power utility investor on the infinite horizon. When the state space of the stochastic factor is finite, we give a complete characterisation of the well-posedness of the problem, and provide an efficient numerical algorithm for computing the value function. When the state space is a (possibly infinite) open interval and the stochastic factor is represented by an Itô diffusion, we develop a general theory of sub- and supersolutions for second-order ordinary differential equations on open domains without boundary values to prove existence of the solution to the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation along with explicit bounds for the solution. By characterising the asymptotic behaviour of the solution, we are also able to provide rigorous verification arguments for various models, including – for the first time – the Heston model. Finally, we link the discrete and continuous setting and show that that the value function in the diffusion setting can be approximated very efficiently through a fast discretisation scheme. ...

Statistical modeling of SOFR term structure ArXiv ID: 2508.02691 “View on arXiv” Authors: Teemu Pennanen, Waleed Taoum Abstract SOFR derivatives market remains illiquid and incomplete so it is not amenable to classical risk-neutral term structure models which are based on the assumption of perfect liquidity and completeness. This paper develops a statistical SOFR term structure model that is well-suited for risk management and derivatives pricing within the incomplete markets paradigm. The model incorporates relevant macroeconomic factors that drive central bank policy rates which, in turn, cause jumps often observed in the SOFR rates. The model is easy to calibrate to historical data, current market quotes, and the user’s views concerning the future development of the relevant macroeconomic factors. The model is well suited for large-scale simulations often required in risk management, portfolio optimization and indifference pricing of interest rate derivatives. ...

Portfolio optimization in incomplete markets and price constraints determined by maximum entropy in the mean ArXiv ID: 2507.07053 “View on arXiv” Authors: Argimiro Arratia, Henryk Gzyl Abstract A solution to a portfolio optimization problem is always conditioned by constraints on the initial capital and the price of the available market assets. If a risk neutral measure is known, then the price of each asset is the discounted expected value of the asset’s price under this measure. But if the market is incomplete, the risk neutral measure is not unique, and there is a range of possible prices for each asset, which can be identified with bid-ask ranges. We present in this paper an effective method to determine the current prices of a collection of assets in incomplete markets, and such that these prices comply with the cost constraints for a portfolio optimization problem. Our workhorse is the method of maximum entropy in the mean to adjust a distortion function from bid-ask market data. This distortion function plays the role of a risk neutral measure, which is used to price the assets, and the distorted probability that it determines reproduces bid-ask market values. We carry out numerical examples to study the effect on portfolio returns of the computation of prices of the assets conforming the portfolio with the proposed methodology. ...

Deep Hedging of Green PPAs in Electricity Markets ArXiv ID: 2503.13056 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In power markets, Green Power Purchase Agreements have become an important contractual tool of the energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources such as wind or solar radiation. Trading Green PPAs exposes agents to price risks and weather risks. Also, developed electricity markets feature the so-called cannibalisation effect : large infeeds induce low prices and vice versa. As weather is a non-tradable entity the question arises how to hedge and risk-manage in this highly incom-plete setting. We propose a ‘‘deep hedging’’ framework utilising machine learning methods to construct hedging strategies. The resulting strategies outperform static and dynamic benchmark strategies with respect to different risk measures. ...

Modeling and Replication of the Prepayment Option of Mortgages including Behavioral Uncertainty ArXiv ID: 2410.21110 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Prepayment risk embedded in fixed-rate mortgages forms a significant fraction of a financial institution’s exposure, and it receives particular attention because of the magnitude of the underlying market. The embedded prepayment option (EPO) bears the same interest rate risk as an exotic interest rate swap (IRS) with a suitable stochastic notional. We investigate the effect of relaxing the assumption of a deterministic relationship between the market interest rate incentive and the prepayment rate. A non-hedgeable risk factor is modeled to capture the uncertainty in mortgage owners’ behavior, leading to an incomplete market. We prove under natural assumptions that including behavioral uncertainty reduces the exposure’s value. We statically replicate the exposure resulting from the EPO with IRSs and swaptions, and we show that a replication based on swaps solely cannot easily control the right tail of the exposure distribution, while including swaptions enables that. The replication framework is flexible and focuses on different regions in the exposure distribution. Since a non-hedgeable risk factor entails the existence of multiple equivalent martingale measures, pricing and optimal replication are not unique. We investigate the effect of a market price of risk misspecification and we provide a methodology to generate robust hedging strategies. Such strategies, obtained as solutions to a saddle-point problem, allow us to bound the exposure against a misspecification of the pricing measure. ...

Optimal retirement in presence of stochastic labor income: a free boundary approach in an incomplete market ArXiv ID: 2407.19190 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In this work, we address the optimal retirement problem in the presence of a stochastic wage, formulated as a free boundary problem. Specifically, we explore an incomplete market setting where the wage cannot be perfectly hedged through investments in the risk-free and risky assets that characterize the financial market. ...

Examples and Counterexamples of Cost-efficiency in Incomplete Markets ArXiv ID: 2407.08756 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We present a number of examples and counterexamples to illustrate the results on cost-efficiency in an incomplete market obtained in [“BS24”]. These examples and counterexamples do not only illustrate the results obtained in [“BS24”], but show the limitations of the results and the sharpness of the key assumptions. In particular, we make use of a simple 3-state model in which we are able to recover and illustrate all key results of the paper. This example also shows how our characterization of perfectly cost-efficient claims allows to solve an expected utility maximization problem in a simple incomplete market (trinomial model) and recover results from [“DS06, Chapter 3”], there obtained using duality. ...

Deep learning for quadratic hedging in incomplete jump market ArXiv ID: 2407.13688 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We propose a deep learning approach to study the minimal variance pricing and hedging problem in an incomplete jump diffusion market. It is based upon a rigorous stochastic calculus derivation of the optimal hedging portfolio, optimal option price, and the corresponding equivalent martingale measure through the means of the Stackelberg game approach. A deep learning algorithm based on the combination of the feedforward and LSTM neural networks is tested on three different market models, two of which are incomplete. In contrast, the complete market Black-Scholes model serves as a benchmark for the algorithm’s performance. The results that indicate the algorithm’s good performance are presented and discussed. In particular, we apply our results to the special incomplete market model studied by Merton and give a detailed comparison between our results based on the minimal variance principle and the results obtained by Merton based on a different pricing principle. Using deep learning, we find that the minimal variance principle leads to typically higher option prices than those deduced from the Merton principle. On the other hand, the minimal variance principle leads to lower losses than the Merton principle. ...

Mean field equilibrium asset pricing model with habit formation ArXiv ID: 2406.02155 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper presents an asset pricing model in an incomplete market involving a large number of heterogeneous agents based on the mean field game theory. In the model, we incorporate habit formation in consumption preferences, which has been widely used to explain various phenomena in financial economics. In order to characterize the market-clearing equilibrium, we derive a quadratic-growth mean field backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) and study its well-posedness and asymptotic behavior in the large population limit. Additionally, we introduce an exponential quadratic Gaussian reformulation of the asset pricing model, in which the solution is obtained in a semi-analytic form. ...