Interpretable AI

Explainable Federated Learning for U.S. State-Level Financial Distress Modeling ArXiv ID: 2511.08588 “View on arXiv” Authors: Lorenzo Carta, Fernando Spadea, Oshani Seneviratne Abstract We present the first application of federated learning (FL) to the U.S. National Financial Capability Study, introducing an interpretable framework for predicting consumer financial distress across all 50 states and the District of Columbia without centralizing sensitive data. Our cross-silo FL setup treats each state as a distinct data silo, simulating real-world governance in nationwide financial systems. Unlike prior work, our approach integrates two complementary explainable AI techniques to identify both global (nationwide) and local (state-specific) predictors of financial hardship, such as contact from debt collection agencies. We develop a machine learning model specifically suited for highly categorical, imbalanced survey data. This work delivers a scalable, regulation-compliant blueprint for early warning systems in finance, demonstrating how FL can power socially responsible AI applications in consumer credit risk and financial inclusion. ...

Finance-Grounded Optimization For Algorithmic Trading ArXiv ID: 2509.04541 “View on arXiv” Authors: Kasymkhan Khubiev, Mikhail Semenov, Irina Podlipnova Abstract Deep Learning is evolving fast and integrates into various domains. Finance is a challenging field for deep learning, especially in the case of interpretable artificial intelligence (AI). Although classical approaches perform very well with natural language processing, computer vision, and forecasting, they are not perfect for the financial world, in which specialists use different metrics to evaluate model performance. We first introduce financially grounded loss functions derived from key quantitative finance metrics, including the Sharpe ratio, Profit-and-Loss (PnL), and Maximum Draw down. Additionally, we propose turnover regularization, a method that inherently constrains the turnover of generated positions within predefined limits. Our findings demonstrate that the proposed loss functions, in conjunction with turnover regularization, outperform the traditional mean squared error loss for return prediction tasks when evaluated using algorithmic trading metrics. The study shows that financially grounded metrics enhance predictive performance in trading strategies and portfolio optimization. ...

Enhancing Profitability and Investor Confidence through Interpretable AI Models for Investment Decisions ArXiv ID: 2312.16223 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Financial forecasting plays an important role in making informed decisions for financial stakeholders, specifically in the stock exchange market. In a traditional setting, investors commonly rely on the equity research department for valuable reports on market insights and investment recommendations. The equity research department, however, faces challenges in effectuating decision-making do to the demanding cognitive effort required for analyzing the inherently volatile nature of market dynamics. Furthermore, financial forecasting systems employed by analysts pose potential risks in terms of interpretability and gaining the trust of all stakeholders. This paper presents an interpretable decision-making model leveraging the SHAP-based explainability technique to forecast investment recommendations. The proposed solution not only provides valuable insights into the factors that influence forecasted recommendations but also caters the investors of varying types, including those interested in daily and short-term investment opportunities. To ascertain the efficacy of the proposed model, a case study is devised that demonstrates a notable enhancement in investor’s portfolio value, employing our trading strategies. The results highlight the significance of incorporating interpretability in forecasting models to boost stakeholders’ confidence and foster transparency in the stock exchange domain. ...

TimeTrail: Unveiling Financial Fraud Patterns through Temporal Correlation Analysis ArXiv ID: 2308.14215 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In the field of financial fraud detection, understanding the underlying patterns and dynamics is important to ensure effective and reliable systems. This research introduces a new technique, “TimeTrail,” which employs advanced temporal correlation analysis to explain complex financial fraud patterns. The technique leverages time-related insights to provide transparent and interpretable explanations for fraud detection decisions, enhancing accountability and trust. The “TimeTrail” methodology consists of three key phases: temporal data enrichment, dynamic correlation analysis, and interpretable pattern visualization. Initially, raw financial transaction data is enriched with temporal attributes. Dynamic correlations between these attributes are then quantified using innovative statistical measures. Finally, a unified visualization framework presents these correlations in an interpretable manner. To validate the effectiveness of “TimeTrail,” a study is conducted on a diverse financial dataset, surrounding various fraud scenarios. Results demonstrate the technique’s capability to uncover hidden temporal correlations and patterns, performing better than conventional methods in both accuracy and interpretability. Moreover, a case study showcasing the application of “TimeTrail” in real-world scenarios highlights its utility for fraud detection. ...