Lévy Process

Fast and explicit European option pricing under tempered stable processes ArXiv ID: 2510.01211 “View on arXiv” Authors: Gaetano Agazzotti, Jean-Philippe Aguilar Abstract We provide series expansions for the tempered stable densities and for the price of European-style contracts in the exponential Lévy model driven by the tempered stable process. These formulas recover several popular option pricing models, and become particularly simple in some specific cases such as bilateral Gamma process and one-sided TS process. When compared to traditional Fourier pricing, our method has the advantage of being hyperparameter free. We also provide a detailed numerical analysis and show that our technique is competitive with state-of-the-art pricing methods. ...

Stochastic Price Dynamics in Response to Order Flow Imbalance: Evidence from CSI 300 Index Futures ArXiv ID: 2505.17388 “View on arXiv” Authors: Chen Hu, Kouxiao Zhang Abstract We conduct modeling of the price dynamics following order flow imbalance in market microstructure and apply the model to the analysis of Chinese CSI 300 Index Futures. There are three findings. The first is that the order flow imbalance is analogous to a shock to the market. Unlike the common practice of using Hawkes processes, we model the impact of order flow imbalance as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with memory and mean-reverting characteristics driven by a jump-type Lévy process. Motivated by the empirically stable correlation between order flow imbalance and contemporaneous price changes, we propose a modified asset price model where the drift term of canonical geometric Brownian motion is replaced by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We establish stochastic differential equations and derive the logarithmic return process along with its mean and variance processes under initial boundary conditions, and evolution of cost-effectiveness ratio with order flow imbalance as the trading trigger point, termed as the quasi-Sharpe ratio or response ratio. Secondly, our results demonstrate horizon-dependent heterogeneity in how conventional metrics interact with order flow imbalance. This underscores the critical role of forecast horizon selection for strategies. Thirdly, we identify regime-dependent dynamics in the memory and forecasting power of order flow imbalance. This taxonomy provides both a screening protocol for existing indicators and an ex-ante evaluation paradigm for novel metrics. ...

Modeling of Measurement Error in Financial Returns Data ArXiv ID: 2408.07405 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In this paper we consider the modeling of measurement error for fund returns data. In particular, given access to a time-series of discretely observed log-returns and the associated maximum over the observation period, we develop a stochastic model which models the true log-returns and maximum via a Lévy process and the data as a measurement error there-of. The main technical difficulty of trying to infer this model, for instance Bayesian parameter estimation, is that the joint transition density of the return and maximum is seldom known, nor can it be simulated exactly. Based upon the novel stick breaking representation of [“12”] we provide an approximation of the model. We develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to sample from the Bayesian posterior of the approximated posterior and then extend this to a multilevel MCMC method which can reduce the computational cost to approximate posterior expectations, relative to ordinary MCMC. We implement our methodology on several applications including for real data. ...

Higher order approximation of option prices in Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard models ArXiv ID: 2401.14390 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We present an approximation method based on the mixing formula (Hull & White 1987, Romano & Touzi 1997) for pricing European options in Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard models. This approximation is based on a Taylor expansion of the option price. It is implemented using a recursive algorithm that allows us to obtain closed form approximations of the option price of any order (subject to technical conditions on the background driving Lévy process). This method can be used for any type of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard stochastic volatility model. Explicit results are presented in the case where the stationary distribution of the background driving Lévy process is inverse Gaussian or gamma. In both of these cases, the approximation compares favorably to option prices produced by the characteristic function. In particular, we also perform an error analysis of the approximation, which is partially based on the results of Das & Langrené (2022). We obtain asymptotic results for the error of the $N^{"\text{th"}}$ order approximation and error bounds when the variance process satisfies an inverse Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process or a gamma Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. ...