Large Language Models (LLMs)

TradingAgents: Multi-Agents LLM Financial Trading Framework ArXiv ID: 2412.20138 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Significant progress has been made in automated problem-solving using societies of agents powered by large language models (LLMs). In finance, efforts have largely focused on single-agent systems handling specific tasks or multi-agent frameworks independently gathering data. However, the multi-agent systems’ potential to replicate real-world trading firms’ collaborative dynamics remains underexplored. TradingAgents proposes a novel stock trading framework inspired by trading firms, featuring LLM-powered agents in specialized roles such as fundamental analysts, sentiment analysts, technical analysts, and traders with varied risk profiles. The framework includes Bull and Bear researcher agents assessing market conditions, a risk management team monitoring exposure, and traders synthesizing insights from debates and historical data to make informed decisions. By simulating a dynamic, collaborative trading environment, this framework aims to improve trading performance. Detailed architecture and extensive experiments reveal its superiority over baseline models, with notable improvements in cumulative returns, Sharpe ratio, and maximum drawdown, highlighting the potential of multi-agent LLM frameworks in financial trading. TradingAgents is available at https://github.com/TauricResearch/TradingAgents. ...

Sentiment trading with large language models ArXiv ID: 2412.19245 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We investigate the efficacy of large language models (LLMs) in sentiment analysis of U.S. financial news and their potential in predicting stock market returns. We analyze a dataset comprising 965,375 news articles that span from January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2023; we focus on the performance of various LLMs, including BERT, OPT, FINBERT, and the traditional Loughran-McDonald dictionary model, which has been a dominant methodology in the finance literature. The study documents a significant association between LLM scores and subsequent daily stock returns. Specifically, OPT, which is a GPT-3 based LLM, shows the highest accuracy in sentiment prediction with an accuracy of 74.4%, slightly ahead of BERT (72.5%) and FINBERT (72.2%). In contrast, the Loughran-McDonald dictionary model demonstrates considerably lower effectiveness with only 50.1% accuracy. Regression analyses highlight a robust positive impact of OPT model scores on next-day stock returns, with coefficients of 0.274 and 0.254 in different model specifications. BERT and FINBERT also exhibit predictive relevance, though to a lesser extent. Notably, we do not observe a significant relationship between the Loughran-McDonald dictionary model scores and stock returns, challenging the efficacy of this traditional method in the current financial context. In portfolio performance, the long-short OPT strategy excels with a Sharpe ratio of 3.05, compared to 2.11 for BERT and 2.07 for FINBERT long-short strategies. Strategies based on the Loughran-McDonald dictionary yield the lowest Sharpe ratio of 1.23. Our findings emphasize the superior performance of advanced LLMs, especially OPT, in financial market prediction and portfolio management, marking a significant shift in the landscape of financial analysis tools with implications to financial regulation and policy analysis. ...

FinGPT: Enhancing Sentiment-Based Stock Movement Prediction with Dissemination-Aware and Context-Enriched LLMs ArXiv ID: 2412.10823 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Financial sentiment analysis is crucial for understanding the influence of news on stock prices. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have been widely adopted for this purpose due to their advanced text analysis capabilities. However, these models often only consider the news content itself, ignoring its dissemination, which hampers accurate prediction of short-term stock movements. Additionally, current methods often lack sufficient contextual data and explicit instructions in their prompts, limiting LLMs’ ability to interpret news. In this paper, we propose a data-driven approach that enhances LLM-powered sentiment-based stock movement predictions by incorporating news dissemination breadth, contextual data, and explicit instructions. We cluster recent company-related news to assess its reach and influence, enriching prompts with more specific data and precise instructions. This data is used to construct an instruction tuning dataset to fine-tune an LLM for predicting short-term stock price movements. Our experimental results show that our approach improves prediction accuracy by 8% compared to existing methods. ...

SusGen-GPT: A Data-Centric LLM for Financial NLP and Sustainability Report Generation ArXiv ID: 2412.10906 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The rapid growth of the financial sector and the rising focus on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) considerations highlight the need for advanced NLP tools. However, open-source LLMs proficient in both finance and ESG domains remain scarce. To address this gap, we introduce SusGen-30K, a category-balanced dataset comprising seven financial NLP tasks and ESG report generation, and propose TCFD-Bench, a benchmark for evaluating sustainability report generation. Leveraging this dataset, we developed SusGen-GPT, a suite of models achieving state-of-the-art performance across six adapted and two off-the-shelf tasks, trailing GPT-4 by only 2% despite using 7-8B parameters compared to GPT-4’s 1,700B. Based on this, we propose the SusGen system, integrated with Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), to assist in sustainability report generation. This work demonstrates the efficiency of our approach, advancing research in finance and ESG. ...

LLMs for Time Series: an Application for Single Stocks and Statistical Arbitrage ArXiv ID: 2412.09394 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Recently, LLMs (Large Language Models) have been adapted for time series prediction with significant success in pattern recognition. However, the common belief is that these models are not suitable for predicting financial market returns, which are known to be almost random. We aim to challenge this misconception through a counterexample. Specifically, we utilized the Chronos model from Ansari et al.(2024) and tested both pretrained configurations and fine-tuned supervised forecasts on the largest American single stocks using data from Guijarro-Ordonnez et al.(2022). We constructed a long/short portfolio, and the performance simulation indicates that LLMs can in reality handle time series that are nearly indistinguishable from noise, demonstrating an ability to identify inefficiencies amidst randomness and generate alpha. Finally, we compared these results with those of specialized models and smaller deep learning models, highlighting significant room for improvement in LLM performance to further enhance their predictive capabilities. ...

RAG-IT: Retrieval-Augmented Instruction Tuning for Automated Financial Analysis – A Case Study for the Semiconductor Sector ArXiv ID: 2412.08179 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Financial analysis relies heavily on the interpretation of earnings reports to assess company performance and guide decision-making. Traditional methods for generating such analyzes require significant financial expertise and are often time-consuming. With the rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs), domain-specific adaptations have emerged for financial tasks such as sentiment analysis and entity recognition. This paper introduces RAG-IT (Retrieval-Augmented Instruction Tuning), a novel framework designed to automate the generation of earnings report analysis through an LLM fine-tuned specifically for the financial domain. Our approach integrates retrieval augmentation with instruction-based fine-tuning to enhance factual accuracy, contextual relevance, and domain adaptability. We construct a sector-specific financial instruction dataset derived from semiconductor industry documents to guide the LLM adaptation to specialized financial reasoning. Using NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom as representative companies, our case study demonstrates that RAG-IT substantially improves a general-purpose open-source LLM and achieves performance comparable to commercial systems like GPT-3.5 on financial report generation tasks. This research highlights the potential of retrieval-augmented instruction tuning to streamline and elevate financial analysis automation, advancing the broader field of intelligent financial reporting. ...

SeQwen at the Financial Misinformation Detection Challenge Task: Sequential Learning for Claim Verification and Explanation Generation in Financial Domains ArXiv ID: 2412.00549 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper presents the system description of our entry for the COLING 2025 FMD challenge, focusing on misinformation detection in financial domains. We experimented with a combination of large language models, including Qwen, Mistral, and Gemma-2, and leveraged pre-processing and sequential learning for not only identifying fraudulent financial content but also generating coherent, and concise explanations that clarify the rationale behind the classifications. Our approach achieved competitive results with an F1-score of 0.8283 for classification, and ROUGE-1 of 0.7253 for explanations. This work highlights the transformative potential of LLMs in financial applications, offering insights into their capabilities for combating misinformation and enhancing transparency while identifying areas for future improvement in robustness and domain adaptation. ...

Predictive Power of LLMs in Financial Markets ArXiv ID: 2411.16569 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Predicting the movement of the stock market and other assets has been valuable over the past few decades. Knowing how the value of a certain sector market may move in the future provides much information for investors, as they use that information to develop strategies to maximize profit or minimize risk. However, market data are quite noisy, and it is challenging to choose the right data or the right model to create such predictions. With the rise of large language models, there are ways to analyze certain data much more efficiently than before. Our goal is to determine whether the GPT model provides more useful information compared to other traditional transformer models, such as the BERT model. We shall use data from the Federal Reserve Beige Book, which provides summaries of economic conditions in different districts in the US. Using such data, we then employ the LLM’s to make predictions on the correlations. Using these correlations, we then compare the results with well-known strategies and determine whether knowing the economic conditions improves investment decisions. We conclude that the Beige Book does contain information regarding correlations amongst different assets, yet the GPT model has too much look-ahead bias and that traditional models still triumph. ...

BreakGPT: Leveraging Large Language Models for Predicting Asset Price Surges ArXiv ID: 2411.06076 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper introduces BreakGPT, a novel large language model (LLM) architecture adapted specifically for time series forecasting and the prediction of sharp upward movements in asset prices. By leveraging both the capabilities of LLMs and Transformer-based models, this study evaluates BreakGPT and other Transformer-based models for their ability to address the unique challenges posed by highly volatile financial markets. The primary contribution of this work lies in demonstrating the effectiveness of combining time series representation learning with LLM prediction frameworks. We showcase BreakGPT as a promising solution for financial forecasting with minimal training and as a strong competitor for capturing both local and global temporal dependencies. ...

Climate AI for Corporate Decarbonization Metrics Extraction ArXiv ID: 2411.03402 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Corporate Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission targets are important metrics in sustainable investing [“12, 16”]. To provide a comprehensive view of company emission objectives, we propose an approach to source these metrics from company public disclosures. Without automation, curating these metrics manually is a labor-intensive process that requires combing through lengthy corporate sustainability disclosures that often do not follow a standard format. Furthermore, the resulting dataset needs to be validated thoroughly by Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), further lengthening the time-to-market. We introduce the Climate Artificial Intelligence for Corporate Decarbonization Metrics Extraction (CAI) model and pipeline, a novel approach utilizing Large Language Models (LLMs) to extract and validate linked metrics from corporate disclosures. We demonstrate that the process improves data collection efficiency and accuracy by automating data curation, validation, and metric scoring from public corporate disclosures. We further show that our results are agnostic to the choice of LLMs. This framework can be applied broadly to information extraction from textual data. ...