LSTM

Forecasting Volatility with Machine Learning and Rough Volatility: Example from the Crypto-Winter ArXiv ID: 2311.04727 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We extend the application and test the performance of a recently introduced volatility prediction framework encompassing LSTM and rough volatility. Our asset class of interest is cryptocurrencies, at the beginning of the “crypto-winter” in 2022. We first show that to forecast volatility, a universal LSTM approach trained on a pool of assets outperforms traditional models. We then consider a parsimonious parametric model based on rough volatility and Zumbach effect. We obtain similar prediction performances with only five parameters whose values are non-asset-dependent. Our findings provide further evidence on the universality of the mechanisms underlying the volatility formation process. ...

Mean Absolute Directional Loss as a New Loss Function for Machine Learning Problems in Algorithmic Investment Strategies ArXiv ID: 2309.10546 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper investigates the issue of an adequate loss function in the optimization of machine learning models used in the forecasting of financial time series for the purpose of algorithmic investment strategies (AIS) construction. We propose the Mean Absolute Directional Loss (MADL) function, solving important problems of classical forecast error functions in extracting information from forecasts to create efficient buy/sell signals in algorithmic investment strategies. Finally, based on the data from two different asset classes (cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin and commodities: Crude Oil), we show that the new loss function enables us to select better hyperparameters for the LSTM model and obtain more efficient investment strategies, with regard to risk-adjusted return metrics on the out-of-sample data. ...

An Adaptive Dual-level Reinforcement Learning Approach for Optimal Trade Execution ArXiv ID: 2307.10649 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The purpose of this research is to devise a tactic that can closely track the daily cumulative volume-weighted average price (VWAP) using reinforcement learning. Previous studies often choose a relatively short trading horizon to implement their models, making it difficult to accurately track the daily cumulative VWAP since the variations of financial data are often insignificant within the short trading horizon. In this paper, we aim to develop a strategy that can accurately track the daily cumulative VWAP while minimizing the deviation from the VWAP. We propose a method that leverages the U-shaped pattern of intraday stock trade volumes and use Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) as the learning algorithm. Our method follows a dual-level approach: a Transformer model that captures the overall(global) distribution of daily volumes in a U-shape, and a LSTM model that handles the distribution of orders within smaller(local) time intervals. The results from our experiments suggest that this dual-level architecture improves the accuracy of approximating the cumulative VWAP, when compared to previous reinforcement learning-based models. ...

Generative Meta-Learning Robust Quality-Diversity Portfolio ArXiv ID: 2307.07811 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper proposes a novel meta-learning approach to optimize a robust portfolio ensemble. The method uses a deep generative model to generate diverse and high-quality sub-portfolios combined to form the ensemble portfolio. The generative model consists of a convolutional layer, a stateful LSTM module, and a dense network. During training, the model takes a randomly sampled batch of Gaussian noise and outputs a population of solutions, which are then evaluated using the objective function of the problem. The weights of the model are updated using a gradient-based optimizer. The convolutional layer transforms the noise into a desired distribution in latent space, while the LSTM module adds dependence between generations. The dense network decodes the population of solutions. The proposed method balances maximizing the performance of the sub-portfolios with minimizing their maximum correlation, resulting in a robust ensemble portfolio against systematic shocks. The approach was effective in experiments where stochastic rewards were present. Moreover, the results (Fig. 1) demonstrated that the ensemble portfolio obtained by taking the average of the generated sub-portfolio weights was robust and generalized well. The proposed method can be applied to problems where diversity is desired among co-optimized solutions for a robust ensemble. The source-codes and the dataset are in the supplementary material. ...

Critical comparisons on deep learning approaches for foreign exchange rate prediction ArXiv ID: 2307.06600 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In a natural market environment, the price prediction model needs to be updated in real time according to the data obtained by the system to ensure the accuracy of the prediction. In order to improve the user experience of the system, the price prediction function needs to use the fastest training model and the model prediction fitting effect of the best network as a predictive model. We conduct research on the fundamental theories of RNN, LSTM, and BP neural networks, analyse their respective characteristics, and discuss their advantages and disadvantages to provide a reference for the selection of price-prediction models. ...

Financial sentiment analysis using FinBERT with application in predicting stock movement ArXiv ID: 2306.02136 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In this study, we integrate sentiment analysis within a financial framework by leveraging FinBERT, a fine-tuned BERT model specialized for financial text, to construct an advanced deep learning model based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Our objective is to forecast financial market trends with greater accuracy. To evaluate our model’s predictive capabilities, we apply it to a comprehensive dataset of stock market news and perform a comparative analysis against standard BERT, standalone LSTM, and the traditional ARIMA models. Our findings indicate that incorporating sentiment analysis significantly enhances the model’s ability to anticipate market fluctuations. Furthermore, we propose a suite of optimization techniques aimed at refining the model’s performance, paving the way for more robust and reliable market prediction tools in the field of AI-driven finance. ...