Machine Learning Estimation

Can AI Detect Wash Trading? Evidence from NFTs ArXiv ID: 2311.18717 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Existing studies on crypto wash trading often use indirect statistical methods or leaked private data, both with inherent limitations. This paper leverages public on-chain NFT data for a more direct and granular estimation. Analyzing three major exchanges, we find that ~38% (30-40%) of trades and ~60% (25-95%) of traded value likely involve manipulation, with significant variation across exchanges. This direct evidence enables a critical reassessment of existing indirect methods, identifying roundedness-based regressions à la Cong et al. (2023) as most promising, though still error-prone in the NFT setting. To address this, we develop an AI-based estimator that integrates these regressions in a machine learning framework, significantly reducing both exchange- and trade-level estimation errors in NFT markets (and beyond). ...

Deep Learning for Solving and Estimating Dynamic Macro-Finance Models ArXiv ID: 2305.09783 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We develop a methodology that utilizes deep learning to simultaneously solve and estimate canonical continuous-time general equilibrium models in financial economics. We illustrate our method in two examples: (1) industrial dynamics of firms and (2) macroeconomic models with financial frictions. Through these applications, we illustrate the advantages of our method: generality, simultaneous solution and estimation, leveraging the state-of-art machine-learning techniques, and handling large state space. The method is versatile and can be applied to a vast variety of problems. ...