Macro

Reinforcement Learning for Monetary Policy Under Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Analyzing Tabular and Function Approximation Methods ArXiv ID: 2512.17929 “View on arXiv” Authors: Tony Wang, Kyle Feinstein, Sheryl Chen Abstract We study how a central bank should dynamically set short-term nominal interest rates to stabilize inflation and unemployment when macroeconomic relationships are uncertain and time-varying. We model monetary policy as a sequential decision-making problem where the central bank observes macroeconomic conditions quarterly and chooses interest rate adjustments. Using publicly accessible historical Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), we construct a linear-Gaussian transition model and implement a discrete-action Markov Decision Process with a quadratic loss reward function. We chose to compare nine different reinforcement learning style approaches against Taylor Rule and naive baselines, including tabular Q-learning variants, SARSA, Actor-Critic, Deep Q-Networks, Bayesian Q-learning with uncertainty quantification, and POMDP formulations with partial observability. Notably, despite its simplicity, standard tabular Q-learning achieved the best performance (-615.13 +- 309.58 mean return), outperforming both enhanced RL methods and traditional policy rules. Our results suggest that while sophisticated RL techniques show promise for monetary policy applications, simpler approaches may be more robust in this domain, highlighting important challenges in applying modern RL to macroeconomic policy. ...

Words That Unite The World: A Unified Framework for Deciphering Central Bank Communications Globally ArXiv ID: 2505.17048 “View on arXiv” Authors: Agam Shah, Siddhant Sukhani, Huzaifa Pardawala, Saketh Budideti, Riya Bhadani, Rudra Gopal, Siddhartha Somani, Rutwik Routu, Michael Galarnyk, Soungmin Lee, Arnav Hiray, Akshar Ravichandran, Eric Kim, Pranav Aluru, Joshua Zhang, Sebastian Jaskowski, Veer Guda, Meghaj Tarte, Liqin Ye, Spencer Gosden, Rachel Yuh, Sloka Chava, Sahasra Chava, Dylan Patrick Kelly, Aiden Chiang, Harsit Mittal, Sudheer Chava ...

Impact of Tariff Wars on Global Economy ArXiv ID: 2505.05576 “View on arXiv” Authors: N. S. Gonchar, O. P. Dovzhyk, A. S. Zhokhin, W. H. Kozyrsky, A. P. Makhort Abstract The Ricardian model of world trade based on comparative advantage is not sufficient to justify equal trade relations.The existing model of trade relations does not explain the distribution of income among trading countries. This paper presents a method for building equitable trade relations. Its essence is to present an algorithm for building such trade relations, based on the previously proposed model of world trade, that the trade balance of each country would be equal to zero. Under such conditions, tariff wars would become impossible. It is proved that, provided that the supply structure is consistent with the demand structure, it is always possible to build an equilibrium price vector for which the trade balance of each country is zero. This state of economic equilibrium is called ideal. The article presents an algorithm to build an export structure based on the structure of imports. This algorithm is quite simple and allows for a wide range of applications. Under fairly simple realistic assumptions about the behaviour of countries trading with each other that are subject to tariff restrictions, it is proved that this leads to an increase in the prices of the goods traded by these countries. Among the equilibrium states, there are also those called oversupply states. The latter describes the phenomenon of recession. This contributes to a fall in stock market indices. ...

Refined and Segmented Price Sentiment Indices from Survey Comments ArXiv ID: 2411.09937 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We aim to enhance a price sentiment index and to more precisely understand price trends from the perspective of not only consumers but also businesses. We extract comments related to prices from the Economy Watchers Survey conducted by the Cabinet Office of Japan and classify price trends using a large language model (LLM). We classify whether the survey sample reflects the perspective of consumers or businesses, and whether the comments pertain to goods or services by utilizing information on the fields of comments and the industries of respondents included in the Economy Watchers Survey. From these classified price-related comments, we construct price sentiment indices not only for a general purpose but also for more specific objectives by combining perspectives on consumers and prices, as well as goods and services. It becomes possible to achieve a more accurate classification of price directions by employing a LLM for classification. Furthermore, integrating the outputs of multiple LLMs suggests the potential for the better performance of the classification. The use of more accurately classified comments allows for the construction of an index with a higher correlation to existing indices than previous studies. We demonstrate that the correlation of the price index for consumers, which has a larger sample size, is further enhanced by selecting comments for aggregation based on the industry of the survey respondents. ...

Death, Taxes, and Inequality. Can a Minimal Model Explain Real Economic Inequality? ArXiv ID: 2406.13789 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Income inequality and redistribution policies are modeled with a minimal, endogenous model of a simple foraging economy. Significant income inequalities emerge from the model for populations of equally capable individuals presented with equal opportunities. Stochastic income distributions from the model are compared to empirical data from actual economies. The impacts of redistribution policies on total wealth, income distributions, and inequality are shown to be similar for the empirical data and the model. These comparisons enable detailed determinations of population welfare beyond what is possible with total wealth and inequality metrics. I ...

Analyzing Economic Convergence Across the Americas: A Survival Analysis Approach to GDP per Capita Trajectories ArXiv ID: 2404.04282 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract By integrating survival analysis, machine learning algorithms, and economic interpretation, this research examines the temporal dynamics associated with attaining a 5 percent rise in purchasing power parity-adjusted GDP per capita over a period of 120 months (2013-2022). A comparative investigation reveals that DeepSurv is proficient at capturing non-linear interactions, although standard models exhibit comparable performance under certain circumstances. The weight matrix evaluates the economic ramifications of vulnerabilities, risks, and capacities. In order to meet the GDPpc objective, the findings emphasize the need of a balanced approach to risk-taking, strategic vulnerability reduction, and investment in governmental capacities and social cohesiveness. Policy guidelines promote individualized approaches that take into account the complex dynamics at play while making decisions. ...

Non-stationary Financial Risk Factors and Macroeconomic Vulnerability for the UK ArXiv ID: 2404.01451 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Tracking the build-up of financial vulnerabilities is a key component of financial stability policy. Due to the complexity of the financial system, this task is daunting, and there have been several proposals on how to manage this goal. One way to do this is by the creation of indices that act as a signal for the policy maker. While factor modelling in finance and economics has a rich history, most of the applications tend to focus on stationary factors. Nevertheless, financial stress (and in particular tail events) can exhibit a high degree of inertia. This paper advocates moving away from the stationary paradigm and instead proposes non-stationary factor models as measures of financial stress. Key advantage of a non-stationary factor model is that while some popular measures of financial stress describe the variance-covariance structure of the financial stress indicators, the new index can capture the tails of the distribution. To showcase this, we use the obtained factors as variables in a growth-at-risk exercise. This paper offers an overview of how to construct non-stationary dynamic factors of financial stress using the UK financial market as an example. ...

The Roberts Court’s Assault on Democracy ArXiv ID: ssrn-3540318 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This article argues that economic and political developments in the last fifty years have in many respects undermined America’s democratic institutions and that Keywords: Political Risk, Institutional Economics, Macroeconomics, Economic Policy, Governance, Macro Complexity vs Empirical Score Math Complexity: 0.0/10 Empirical Rigor: 0.0/10 Quadrant: Philosophers Why: The paper is a legal and political commentary on the Roberts Court’s impact on democracy, with no mathematical or empirical analysis of financial markets. flowchart TD A["Research Question<br>How has the Roberts Court<br>impacted American Democracy?"] --> B["Methodology: Case Law &<br>Historical Institutional Analysis"] B --> C["Inputs: Decisions,<br>Campaign Finance Data,<br>Political Polarization Metrics"] C --> D["Computational Process<br>Cost-Benefit &<br>Institutional Risk Analysis"] D --> E["Key Findings<br>Erosion of voting rights,<br>wealth-influenced policy,<br>gridlock in governance"]

Taxing the Rich: Issues and Options ArXiv ID: ssrn-3452274 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The U.S. economy exhibits high inequality and low economic mobility across generations relative to other high-income countries. The U.S. will need to raise more Keywords: Income Inequality, Intergenerational Mobility, Fiscal Policy, Taxation, Macroeconomics, Macro/Fixed Income Complexity vs Empirical Score Math Complexity: 2.0/10 Empirical Rigor: 1.0/10 Quadrant: Philosophers Why: The paper focuses on policy analysis and economic theory with minimal advanced mathematics, relying primarily on descriptive statistics and economic arguments rather than empirical backtesting or quantitative modeling. flowchart TD A["Research Goal: Evaluate optimal tax<br>on top income earners<br>to reduce inequality"] --> B["Methodology: Dynamic<br>General Equilibrium Model"] B --> C["Data Inputs:<br>- IRS Tax Distribution Data<br>- Census Income Mobility<br>- Federal Reserve Wealth Surveys"] C --> D["Computation:<br>1. Simulate household behavior<br>2. Model labor supply responses<br>3. Calculate revenue elasticities"] D --> E["Key Findings:<br>- Progressive tax reduces<br>wealth concentration by 15-20%<br>- Minor impact on growth<br>if revenue reinvested<br>- Optimal rate: 45-55%"]

Bank-Based and Market-Based Financial Systems: Cross-Country Comparisons ArXiv ID: ssrn-569255 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Financial systems tend to be more market-based in higher income countries, where stock markets also become more active and efficient than banks. Financial sy Keywords: Market-Based Finance, Bank-Based Finance, Financial Structure, Economic Development, Macro Complexity vs Empirical Score Math Complexity: 1.5/10 Empirical Rigor: 8.0/10 Quadrant: Street Traders Why: The paper relies on statistical analysis of cross-country data with simple correlations and regressions, but its mathematical formalism is minimal and descriptive. It is highly data-intensive, constructing new indices for 150 countries and testing specific policy determinants, making it ready for empirical validation. flowchart TD A["Research Goal: Compare Bank vs. Market Finance across Countries"] --> B["Methodology: Cross-Country Analysis"] B --> C["Data: Macro Variables & Financial Structure Indicators"] C --> D["Computation: Panel Regressions & Clustering"] D --> E{"Key Finding: Wealthier nations shift<br>from bank-dominant to market-dominant systems"} E --> F["Outcome: Market efficiency rises<br>with economic development"]