Markov Decision Process (MDP)

Reinforcement Learning for Monetary Policy Under Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Analyzing Tabular and Function Approximation Methods ArXiv ID: 2512.17929 “View on arXiv” Authors: Tony Wang, Kyle Feinstein, Sheryl Chen Abstract We study how a central bank should dynamically set short-term nominal interest rates to stabilize inflation and unemployment when macroeconomic relationships are uncertain and time-varying. We model monetary policy as a sequential decision-making problem where the central bank observes macroeconomic conditions quarterly and chooses interest rate adjustments. Using publicly accessible historical Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), we construct a linear-Gaussian transition model and implement a discrete-action Markov Decision Process with a quadratic loss reward function. We chose to compare nine different reinforcement learning style approaches against Taylor Rule and naive baselines, including tabular Q-learning variants, SARSA, Actor-Critic, Deep Q-Networks, Bayesian Q-learning with uncertainty quantification, and POMDP formulations with partial observability. Notably, despite its simplicity, standard tabular Q-learning achieved the best performance (-615.13 +- 309.58 mean return), outperforming both enhanced RL methods and traditional policy rules. Our results suggest that while sophisticated RL techniques show promise for monetary policy applications, simpler approaches may be more robust in this domain, highlighting important challenges in applying modern RL to macroeconomic policy. ...

Improving DeFi Accessibility through Efficient Liquidity Provisioning with Deep Reinforcement Learning ArXiv ID: 2501.07508 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper applies deep reinforcement learning (DRL) to optimize liquidity provisioning in Uniswap v3, a decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol implementing an automated market maker (AMM) model with concentrated liquidity. We model the liquidity provision task as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and train an active liquidity provider (LP) agent using the Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) algorithm. The agent dynamically adjusts liquidity positions by using information about price dynamics to balance fee maximization and impermanent loss mitigation. We use a rolling window approach for training and testing, reflecting realistic market conditions and regime shifts. This study compares the data-driven performance of the DRL-based strategy against common heuristics adopted by small retail LP actors that do not systematically modify their liquidity positions. By promoting more efficient liquidity management, this work aims to make DeFi markets more accessible and inclusive for a broader range of participants. Through a data-driven approach to liquidity management, this work seeks to contribute to the ongoing development of more efficient and user-friendly DeFi markets. ...

Optimal Execution with Reinforcement Learning ArXiv ID: 2411.06389 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This study investigates the development of an optimal execution strategy through reinforcement learning, aiming to determine the most effective approach for traders to buy and sell inventory within a finite time horizon. Our proposed model leverages input features derived from the current state of the limit order book and operates at a high frequency to maximize control. To simulate this environment and overcome the limitations associated with relying on historical data, we utilize the multi-agent market simulator ABIDES, which provides a diverse range of depth levels within the limit order book. We present a custom MDP formulation followed by the results of our methodology and benchmark the performance against standard execution strategies. Results show that the reinforcement learning agent outperforms standard strategies and offers a practical foundation for real-world trading applications. ...

A Review of Reinforcement Learning in Financial Applications ArXiv ID: 2411.12746 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In recent years, there has been a growing trend of applying Reinforcement Learning (RL) in financial applications. This approach has shown great potential to solve decision-making tasks in finance. In this survey, we present a comprehensive study of the applications of RL in finance and conduct a series of meta-analyses to investigate the common themes in the literature, such as the factors that most significantly affect RL’s performance compared to traditional methods. Moreover, we identify challenges including explainability, Markov Decision Process (MDP) modeling, and robustness that hinder the broader utilization of RL in the financial industry and discuss recent advancements in overcoming these challenges. Finally, we propose future research directions, such as benchmarking, contextual RL, multi-agent RL, and model-based RL to address these challenges and to further enhance the implementation of RL in finance. ...

RiskMiner: Discovering Formulaic Alphas via Risk Seeking Monte Carlo Tree Search ArXiv ID: 2402.07080 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The formulaic alphas are mathematical formulas that transform raw stock data into indicated signals. In the industry, a collection of formulaic alphas is combined to enhance modeling accuracy. Existing alpha mining only employs the neural network agent, unable to utilize the structural information of the solution space. Moreover, they didn’t consider the correlation between alphas in the collection, which limits the synergistic performance. To address these problems, we propose a novel alpha mining framework, which formulates the alpha mining problems as a reward-dense Markov Decision Process (MDP) and solves the MDP by the risk-seeking Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS). The MCTS-based agent fully exploits the structural information of discrete solution space and the risk-seeking policy explicitly optimizes the best-case performance rather than average outcomes. Comprehensive experiments are conducted to demonstrate the efficiency of our framework. Our method outperforms all state-of-the-art benchmarks on two real-world stock sets under various metrics. Backtest experiments show that our alphas achieve the most profitable results under a realistic trading setting. ...