Mean-Variance Portfolio

Bayesian Portfolio Optimization by Predictive Synthesis ArXiv ID: 2510.07180 “View on arXiv” Authors: Masahiro Kato, Kentaro Baba, Hibiki Kaibuchi, Ryo Inokuchi Abstract Portfolio optimization is a critical task in investment. Most existing portfolio optimization methods require information on the distribution of returns of the assets that make up the portfolio. However, such distribution information is usually unknown to investors. Various methods have been proposed to estimate distribution information, but their accuracy greatly depends on the uncertainty of the financial markets. Due to this uncertainty, a model that could well predict the distribution information at one point in time may perform less accurately compared to another model at a different time. To solve this problem, we investigate a method for portfolio optimization based on Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS), one of the Bayesian ensemble methods for meta-learning. We assume that investors have access to multiple asset return prediction models. By using BPS with dynamic linear models to combine these predictions, we can obtain a Bayesian predictive posterior about the mean rewards of assets that accommodate the uncertainty of the financial markets. In this study, we examine how to construct mean-variance portfolios and quantile-based portfolios based on the predicted distribution information. ...

Optimal mean-variance portfolio selection under regime-switching-induced stock price shocks ArXiv ID: 2507.19824 “View on arXiv” Authors: Xiaomin Shi, Zuo Quan Xu Abstract In this paper, we investigate mean-variance (MV) portfolio selection problems with jumps in a regime-switching financial model. The novelty of our approach lies in allowing not only the market parameters – such as the interest rate, appreciation rate, volatility, and jump intensity – to depend on the market regime, but also in permitting stock prices to experience jumps when the market regime switches, in addition to the usual micro-level jumps. This modeling choice is motivated by empirical observations that stock prices often exhibit sharp declines when the market shifts from a bullish'' to a bearish’’ regime, and vice versa. By employing the completion-of-squares technique, we derive the optimal portfolio strategy and the efficient frontier, both of which are characterized by three systems of multi-dimensional ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Among these, two systems are linear, while the first one is an $\ell$-dimensional, fully coupled, and highly nonlinear Riccati equation. In the absence of regime-switching-induced stock price shocks, these systems reduce to simple linear ODEs. Thus, the introduction of regime-switching-induced stock price shocks adds significant complexity and challenges to our model. Additionally, we explore the MV problem under a no-shorting constraint. In this case, the corresponding Riccati equation becomes a $2\ell$-dimensional, fully coupled, nonlinear ODE, for which we establish solvability. The solution is then used to explicitly express the optimal portfolio and the efficient frontier. ...

A Cholesky decomposition-based asset selection heuristic for sparse tangent portfolio optimization ArXiv ID: 2502.11701 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In practice, including large number of assets in mean-variance portfolios can lead to higher transaction costs and management fees. To address this, one common approach is to select a smaller subset of assets from the larger pool, constructing more efficient portfolios. As a solution, we propose a new asset selection heuristic which generates a pre-defined list of asset candidates using a surrogate formulation and re-optimizes the cardinality-constrained tangent portfolio with these selected assets. This method enables faster optimization and effectively constructs portfolios with fewer assets, as demonstrated by numerical analyses on historical stock returns. Finally, we discuss a quantitative metric that can provide a initial assessment of the performance of the proposed heuristic based on asset covariance. ...

Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection in Long-Term Investments with Unknown Distribution: Online Estimation, Risk Aversion under Ambiguity, and Universality of Algorithms ArXiv ID: 2406.13486 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The standard approach for constructing a Mean-Variance portfolio involves estimating parameters for the model using collected samples. However, since the distribution of future data may not resemble that of the training set, the out-of-sample performance of the estimated portfolio is worse than one derived with true parameters, which has prompted several innovations for better estimation. Instead of treating the data without a timing aspect as in the common training-backtest approach, this paper adopts a perspective where data gradually and continuously reveal over time. The original model is recast into an online learning framework, which is free from any statistical assumptions, to propose a dynamic strategy of sequential portfolios such that its empirical utility, Sharpe ratio, and growth rate asymptotically achieve those of the true portfolio, derived with perfect knowledge of the future data. When the distribution of future data follows a normal shape, the growth rate of wealth is shown to increase by lifting the portfolio along the efficient frontier through the calibration of risk aversion. Since risk aversion cannot be appropriately predetermined, another proposed algorithm updates this coefficient over time, forming a dynamic strategy that approaches the optimal empirical Sharpe ratio or growth rate associated with the true coefficient. The performance of these proposed strategies can be universally guaranteed under stationary stochastic markets. Furthermore, in certain time-reversible stochastic markets, the so-called Bayesian strategy utilizing true conditional distributions, based on past market information during investment, does not perform better than the proposed strategies in terms of empirical utility, Sharpe ratio, or growth rate, which, in contrast, do not rely on conditional distributions. ...

Application of Black-Litterman Bayesian in Statistical Arbitrage ArXiv ID: 2406.06706 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract \begin{“abstract”} In this paper, we integrated the statistical arbitrage strategy, pairs trading, into the Black-Litterman model and constructed efficient mean-variance portfolios. Typically, pairs trading underperforms under volatile or distressed market condition because the selected asset pairs fail to revert to equilibrium within the investment horizon. By enhancing this strategy with the Black-Litterman portfolio optimization, we achieved superior performance compared to the S&P 500 market index under both normal and extreme market conditions. Furthermore, this research presents an innovative idea of incorporating traditional pairs trading strategies into the portfolio optimization framework in a scalable and systematic manner. ...

Hedging Forecast Combinations With an Application to the Random Forest ArXiv ID: 2308.15384 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This papers proposes a generic, high-level methodology for generating forecast combinations that would deliver the optimal linearly combined forecast in terms of the mean-squared forecast error if one had access to two population quantities: the mean vector and the covariance matrix of the vector of individual forecast errors. We point out that this problem is identical to a mean-variance portfolio construction problem, in which portfolio weights correspond to forecast combination weights. We allow negative forecast weights and interpret such weights as hedging over and under estimation risks across estimators. This interpretation follows directly as an implication of the portfolio analogy. We demonstrate our method’s improved out-of-sample performance relative to standard methods in combining tree forecasts to form weighted random forests in 14 data sets. ...

Portfolio Optimization: A Comparative Study ArXiv ID: 2307.05048 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Portfolio optimization has been an area that has attracted considerable attention from the financial research community. Designing a profitable portfolio is a challenging task involving precise forecasting of future stock returns and risks. This chapter presents a comparative study of three portfolio design approaches, the mean-variance portfolio (MVP), hierarchical risk parity (HRP)-based portfolio, and autoencoder-based portfolio. These three approaches to portfolio design are applied to the historical prices of stocks chosen from ten thematic sectors listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The portfolios are designed using the stock price data from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2021, and their performances are tested on the out-of-sample data from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2022. Extensive results are analyzed on the performance of the portfolios. It is observed that the performance of the MVP portfolio is the best on the out-of-sample data for the risk-adjusted returns. However, the autoencoder portfolios outperformed their counterparts on annual returns. ...

A Comparative Analysis of Portfolio Optimization Using Mean-Variance, Hierarchical Risk Parity, and Reinforcement Learning Approaches on the Indian Stock Market ArXiv ID: 2305.17523 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper presents a comparative analysis of the performances of three portfolio optimization approaches. Three approaches of portfolio optimization that are considered in this work are the mean-variance portfolio (MVP), hierarchical risk parity (HRP) portfolio, and reinforcement learning-based portfolio. The portfolios are trained and tested over several stock data and their performances are compared on their annual returns, annual risks, and Sharpe ratios. In the reinforcement learning-based portfolio design approach, the deep Q learning technique has been utilized. Due to the large number of possible states, the construction of the Q-table is done using a deep neural network. The historical prices of the 50 premier stocks from the Indian stock market, known as the NIFTY50 stocks, and several stocks from 10 important sectors of the Indian stock market are used to create the environment for training the agent. ...