Monte Carlo Methods

Convergence in probability of numerical solutions of a highly non-linear delayed stochastic interest rate model ArXiv ID: 2510.04092 “View on arXiv” Authors: Emmanuel Coffie Abstract We examine a delayed stochastic interest rate model with super-linearly growing coefficients and develop several new mathematical tools to establish the properties of its true and truncated EM solutions. Moreover, we show that the true solution converges to the truncated EM solutions in probability as the step size tends to zero. Further, we support the convergence result with some illustrative numerical examples and justify the convergence result for the Monte Carlo evaluation of some financial quantities. ...

The deep multi-FBSDE method: a robust deep learning method for coupled FBSDEs ArXiv ID: 2503.13193 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We introduce the deep multi-FBSDE method for robust approximation of coupled forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDEs), focusing on cases where the deep BSDE method of Han, Jentzen, and E (2018) fails to converge. To overcome the convergence issues, we consider a family of FBSDEs that are equivalent to the original problem in the sense that they satisfy the same associated partial differential equation (PDE). Our algorithm proceeds in two phases: first, we approximate the initial condition for the FBSDE family, and second, we approximate the original FBSDE using the initial condition approximated in the first phase. Numerical experiments show that our method converges even when the standard deep BSDE method does not. ...

A nested MLMC framework for efficient simulations on FPGAs ArXiv ID: 2502.07123 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) reduces the total computational cost of financial option pricing by combining SDE approximations with multiple resolutions. This paper explores a further avenue for reducing cost and improving power efficiency through the use of low precision calculations on configurable hardware devices such as Field-Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs). We propose a new framework that exploits approximate random variables and fixed-point operations with optimised precision to generate most SDE paths with a lower cost and reduce the overall cost of the MLMC framework. We first discuss several methods for the cheap generation of approximate random Normal increments. To set the bit-width of variables in the path generation we then propose a rounding error model and optimise the precision of all variables on each MLMC level. With these key improvements, our proposed framework offers higher computational savings than the existing mixed-precision MLMC frameworks. ...

A deep primal-dual BSDE method for optimal stopping problems ArXiv ID: 2409.06937 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We present a new deep primal-dual backward stochastic differential equation framework based on stopping time iteration to solve optimal stopping problems. A novel loss function is proposed to learn the conditional expectation, which consists of subnetwork parameterization of a continuation value and spatial gradients from present up to the stopping time. Notable features of the method include: (i) The martingale part in the loss function reduces the variance of stochastic gradients, which facilitates the training of the neural networks as well as alleviates the error propagation of value function approximation; (ii) this martingale approximates the martingale in the Doob-Meyer decomposition, and thus leads to a true upper bound for the optimal value in a non-nested Monte Carlo way. We test the proposed method in American option pricing problems, where the spatial gradient network yields the hedging ratio directly. ...

A weighted multilevel Monte Carlo method ArXiv ID: 2405.03453 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has been applied successfully in a wide range of settings since its first introduction by Giles (2008). When using only two levels, the method can be viewed as a kind of control-variate approach to reduce variance, as earlier proposed by Kebaier (2005). We introduce a generalization of the MLMC formulation by extending this control variate approach to any number of levels and deriving a recursive formula for computing the weights associated with the control variates and the optimal numbers of samples at the various levels. We also show how the generalisation can also be applied to the \emph{“multi-index”} MLMC method of Haji-Ali, Nobile, Tempone (2015), at the cost of solving a $(2^d-1)$-dimensional minimisation problem at each node when $d$ index dimensions are used. The comparative performance of the weighted MLMC method is illustrated in a range of numerical settings. While the addition of weights does not change the \emph{“asymptotic”} complexity of the method, the results show that significant efficiency improvements over the standard MLMC formulation are possible, particularly when the coarse level approximations are poorly correlated. ...

Randomized Control in Performance Analysis and Empirical Asset Pricing ArXiv ID: 2403.00009 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The present article explores the application of randomized control techniques in empirical asset pricing and performance evaluation. It introduces geometric random walks, a class of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, to construct flexible control groups in the form of random portfolios adhering to investor constraints. The sampling-based methods enable an exploration of the relationship between academically studied factor premia and performance in a practical setting. In an empirical application, the study assesses the potential to capture premias associated with size, value, quality, and momentum within a strongly constrained setup, exemplified by the investor guidelines of the MSCI Diversified Multifactor index. Additionally, the article highlights issues with the more traditional use case of random portfolios for drawing inferences in performance evaluation, showcasing challenges related to the intricacies of high-dimensional geometry. ...

Monte Carlo Simulation for Trading Under a Lévy-Driven Mean-Reverting Framework ArXiv ID: 2309.05512 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We present a Monte Carlo approach to pairs trading on mean-reverting spreads modeled by Lévy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. Specifically, we focus on using a variance gamma driving process, an infinite activity pure jump process to allow for more flexible models of the price spread than is available in the classical model. However, this generalization comes at the cost of not having analytic formulas, so we apply Monte Carlo methods to determine optimal trading levels and develop a variance reduction technique using control variates. Within this framework, we numerically examine how the optimal trading strategies are affected by the parameters of the model. In addition, we extend our method to bivariate spreads modeled using a weak variance alpha-gamma driving process, and explore the effect of correlation on these trades. ...

A discretization scheme for path-dependent FBSDEs and PDEs ArXiv ID: 2308.07029 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This study develops a numerical scheme for path-dependent FBSDEs and PDEs. We introduce a Picard iteration method for solving path-dependent FBSDEs, prove its convergence to the true solution, and establish its rate of convergence. A key contribution of our approach is a novel estimator for the martingale integrand in the FBSDE, specifically designed to handle path-dependence more reliably than existing methods. We derive a concentration inequality that quantifies the statistical error of this estimator in a Monte Carlo framework. Based on these results, we investigate a supervised learning method with neural networks for solving path-dependent PDEs. The proposed algorithm is fully implementable and adaptable to a broad class of path-dependent problems. ...

From Portfolio Optimization to Quantum Blockchain and Security: A Systematic Review of Quantum Computing in Finance ArXiv ID: 2307.01155 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In this paper, we provide an overview of the recent work in the quantum finance realm from various perspectives. The applications in consideration are Portfolio Optimization, Fraud Detection, and Monte Carlo methods for derivative pricing and risk calculation. Furthermore, we give a comprehensive overview of the applications of quantum computing in the field of blockchain technology which is a main concept in fintech. In that sense, we first introduce the general overview of blockchain with its main cryptographic primitives such as digital signature algorithms, hash functions, and random number generators as well as the security vulnerabilities of blockchain technologies after the merge of quantum computers considering Shor’s quantum factoring and Grover’s quantum search algorithms. We then discuss the privacy preserving quantum-resistant blockchain systems via threshold signatures, ring signatures, and zero-knowledge proof systems i.e. ZK-SNARKs in quantum resistant blockchains. After emphasizing the difference between the quantum-resistant blockchain and quantum-safe blockchain we mention the security countermeasures to take against the possible quantumized attacks aiming these systems. We finalize our discussion with quantum blockchain, efficient quantum mining and necessary infrastructures for constructing such systems based on quantum computing. This review has the intention to be a bridge to fill the gap between quantum computing and one of its most prominent application realms: Finance. We provide the state-of-the-art results in the intersection of finance and quantum technology for both industrial practitioners and academicians. ...