Monte Carlo Simulation

Loss-Versus-Rebalancing under Deterministic and Generalized block-times ArXiv ID: 2505.05113 “View on arXiv” Authors: Alex Nezlobin, Martin Tassy Abstract Although modern blockchains almost universally produce blocks at fixed intervals, existing models still lack an analytical formula for the loss-versus-rebalancing (LVR) incurred by Automated Market Makers (AMMs) liquidity providers in this setting. Leveraging tools from random walk theory, we derive the following closed-form approximation for the per block per unit of liquidity expected LVR under constant block time: [" \overline{"\mathrm{ARB"}}= \frac{",σ_b^{2"}} {",2+\sqrt{2π"},γ/(|ζ(1/2)|,σ_b),}+O!\bigl(e^{"-\mathrm{const"}\tfracγ{“σ_b”}}\bigr);\approx; \frac{“σ_b^{2”}}{",2 + 1.7164,γ/σ_b"}, "] where $σ_b$ is the intra-block asset volatility, $γ$ the AMM spread and $ζ$ the Riemann Zeta function. Our large Monte Carlo simulations show that this formula is in fact quasi-exact across practical parameter ranges. Extending our analysis to arbitrary block-time distributions as well, we demonstrate both that–under every admissible inter-block law–the probability that a block carries an arbitrage trade converges to a universal limit, and that only constant block spacing attains the asymptotically minimal LVR. This shows that constant block intervals provide the best possible protection against arbitrage for liquidity providers. ...

Numerical analysis of a particle system for the calibrated Heston-type local stochastic volatility model ArXiv ID: 2504.14343 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We analyse a Monte Carlo particle method for the simulation of the calibrated Heston-type local stochastic volatility (H-LSV) model. The common application of a kernel estimator for a conditional expectation in the calibration condition results in a McKean-Vlasov (MV) stochastic differential equation (SDE) with non-standard coefficients. The primary challenges lie in certain mean-field terms in the drift and diffusion coefficients and the $1/2$-Hölder regularity of the diffusion coefficient. We establish the well-posedness of this equation for a fixed but arbitrarily small bandwidth of the kernel estimator. Moreover, we prove a strong propagation of chaos result, ensuring convergence of the particle system under a condition on the Feller ratio and up to a critical time. For the numerical simulation, we employ an Euler-Maruyama scheme for the log-spot process and a full truncation Euler scheme for the CIR volatility process. Under certain conditions on the inputs and the Feller ratio, we prove strong convergence of the Euler-Maruyama scheme with rate $1/2$ in time, up to a logarithmic factor. Numerical experiments illustrate the convergence of the discretisation scheme and validate the propagation of chaos in practice. ...

Multi-Layer Deep xVA: Structural Credit Models, Measure Changes and Convergence Analysis ArXiv ID: 2502.14766 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We propose a structural default model for portfolio-wide valuation adjustments (xVAs) and represent it as a system of coupled backward stochastic differential equations. The framework is divided into four layers, each capturing a key component: (i) clean values, (ii) initial margin and Collateral Valuation Adjustment (ColVA), (iii) Credit/Debit Valuation Adjustments (CVA/DVA) together with Margin Valuation Adjustment (MVA), and (iv) Funding Valuation Adjustment (FVA). Because these layers depend on one another through collateral and default effects, a naive Monte Carlo approach would require deeply nested simulations, making the problem computationally intractable. To address this challenge, we use an iterative deep BSDE approach, handling each layer sequentially so that earlier outputs serve as inputs to the subsequent layers. Initial margin is computed via deep quantile regression to reflect margin requirements over the Margin Period of Risk. We also adopt a change-of-measure method that highlights rare but significant defaults of the bank or counterparty, ensuring that these events are accurately captured in the training process. We further extend Han and Long’s (2020) a posteriori error analysis to BSDEs on bounded domains. Due to the random exit from the domain, we obtain an order of convergence of $\mathcal{“O”}(h^{“1/4-ε”})$ rather than the usual $\mathcal{“O”}(h^{“1/2”})$. Numerical experiments illustrate that this method drastically reduces computational demands and successfully scales to high-dimensional, non-symmetric portfolios. The results confirm its effectiveness and accuracy, offering a practical alternative to nested Monte Carlo simulations in multi-counterparty xVA analyses. ...

A deep BSDE approach for the simultaneous pricing and delta-gamma hedging of large portfolios consisting of high-dimensional multi-asset Bermudan options ArXiv ID: 2502.11706 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract A deep BSDE approach is presented for the pricing and delta-gamma hedging of high-dimensional Bermudan options, with applications in portfolio risk management. Large portfolios of a mixture of multi-asset European and Bermudan derivatives are cast into the framework of discretely reflected BSDEs. This system is discretized by the One Step Malliavin scheme (Negyesi et al. [“2024, 2025”]) of discretely reflected Markovian BSDEs, which involves a $Γ$ process, corresponding to second-order sensitivities of the associated option prices. The discretized system is solved by a neural network regression Monte Carlo method, efficiently for a large number of underlyings. The resulting option Deltas and Gammas are used to discretely rebalance the corresponding replicating strategies. Numerical experiments are presented on both high-dimensional basket options and large portfolios consisting of multiple options with varying early exercise rights, moneyness and volatility. These examples demonstrate the robustness and accuracy of the method up to $100$ risk factors. The resulting hedging strategies significantly outperform benchmark methods both in the case of standard delta- and delta-gamma hedging. ...

Direct Inversion for the Squared Bessel Process and Applications ArXiv ID: 2412.16655 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In this paper we derive a new direct inversion method to simulate squared Bessel processes. Since the transition probability of these processes can be represented by a non-central chi-square distribution, we construct an efficient and accurate algorithm to simulate non-central chi-square variables. In this method, the dimension of the squared Bessel process, equivalently the degrees of freedom of the chi-square distribution, is treated as a variable. We therefore use a two-dimensional Chebyshev expansion to approximate the inverse function of the central chi-square distribution with one variable being the degrees of freedom. The method is accurate and efficient for any value of degrees of freedom including the computationally challenging case of small values. One advantage of the method is that noncentral chi-square samples can be generated for a whole range of values of degrees of freedom using the same Chebyshev coefficients. The squared Bessel process is a building block for the well-known Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) processes, which can be generated from squared Bessel processes through time change and linear transformation. Our direct inversion method thus allows the efficient and accurate simulation of these processes, which are used as models in a wide variety of applications. ...

Pricing Multi-strike Quanto Call Options on Multiple Assets with Stochastic Volatility, Correlation, and Exchange Rates ArXiv ID: 2411.16617 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Quanto options allow the buyer to exchange the foreign currency payoff into the domestic currency at a fixed exchange rate. We investigate quanto options with multiple underlying assets valued in different foreign currencies each with a different strike price in the payoff function. We carry out a comparative performance analysis of different stochastic volatility (SV), stochastic correlation (SC), and stochastic exchange rate (SER) models to determine the best combination of these models for Monte Carlo (MC) simulation pricing. In addition, we test the performance of all model variants with constant correlation as a benchmark. We find that a combination of GARCH-Jump SV, Weibull SC, and Ornstein Uhlenbeck (OU) SER performs best. In addition, we analyze different discretization schemes and their results. In our simulations, the Milstein scheme yields the best balance between execution times and lower standard deviations of price estimates. Furthermore, we find that incorporating mean reversion into stochastic correlation and stochastic FX rate modeling is beneficial for MC simulation pricing. We improve the accuracy of our simulations by implementing antithetic variates variance reduction. Finally, we derive the correlation risk parameters Cora and Gora in our framework so that correlation hedging of quanto options can be performed. ...

Beyond Monte Carlo: Harnessing Diffusion Models to Simulate Financial Market Dynamics ArXiv ID: 2412.00036 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We propose a highly efficient and accurate methodology for generating synthetic financial market data using a diffusion model approach. The synthetic data produced by our methodology align closely with observed market data in several key aspects: (i) they pass the two-sample Cramer - von Mises test for portfolios of assets, and (ii) Q - Q plots demonstrate consistency across quantiles, including in the tails, between observed and generated market data. Moreover, the covariance matrices derived from a large set of synthetic market data exhibit significantly lower condition numbers compared to the estimated covariance matrices of the observed data. This property makes them suitable for use as regularized versions of the latter. For model training, we develop an efficient and fast algorithm based on numerical integration rather than Monte Carlo simulations. The methodology is tested on a large set of equity data. ...

Multi-asset and generalised Local Volatility. An efficient implementation ArXiv ID: 2411.05425 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This article presents a generic hybrid numerical method to price a wide range of options on one or several assets, as well as assets with stochastic drift or volatility. In particular for equity and interest rate hybrid with local volatility. Keywords: Hybrid Numerical Method, Option Pricing, Local Volatility, Stochastic Drift, Monte Carlo Simulation, Equity and Interest Rate Hybrids ...

Theoretical and Empirical Validation of Heston Model ArXiv ID: 2409.12453 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This study focuses on the application of the Heston model to option pricing, employing both theoretical derivations and empirical validations. The Heston model, known for its ability to incorporate stochastic volatility, is derived and analyzed to evaluate its effectiveness in pricing options. For practical application, we utilize Monte Carlo simulations alongside market data from the Crude Oil WTI market to test the model’s accuracy. Machine learning based optimization methods are also applied for the estimation of the five Heston parameters. By calibrating the model with real-world data, we assess its robustness and relevance in current financial markets, aiming to bridge the gap between theoretical finance models and their practical implementations. ...

Pricing American Options using Machine Learning Algorithms ArXiv ID: 2409.03204 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This study investigates the application of machine learning algorithms, particularly in the context of pricing American options using Monte Carlo simulations. Traditional models, such as the Black-Scholes-Merton framework, often fail to adequately address the complexities of American options, which include the ability for early exercise and non-linear payoff structures. By leveraging Monte Carlo methods in conjunction Least Square Method machine learning was used. This research aims to improve the accuracy and efficiency of option pricing. The study evaluates several machine learning models, including neural networks and decision trees, highlighting their potential to outperform traditional approaches. The results from applying machine learning algorithm in LSM indicate that integrating machine learning with Monte Carlo simulations can enhance pricing accuracy and provide more robust predictions, offering significant insights into quantitative finance by merging classical financial theories with modern computational techniques. The dataset was split into features and the target variable representing bid prices, with an 80-20 train-validation split. LSTM and GRU models were constructed using TensorFlow’s Keras API, each with four hidden layers of 200 neurons and an output layer for bid price prediction, optimized with the Adam optimizer and MSE loss function. The GRU model outperformed the LSTM model across all evaluated metrics, demonstrating lower mean absolute error, mean squared error, and root mean squared error, along with greater stability and efficiency in training. ...