Multi-Asset

Unwinding Stochastic Order Flow: When to Warehouse Trades ArXiv ID: 2310.14144 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We study how to unwind stochastic order flow with minimal transaction costs. Stochastic order flow arises, e.g., in the central risk book (CRB), a centralized trading desk that aggregates order flows within a financial institution. The desk can warehouse in-flow orders, ideally netting them against subsequent opposite orders (internalization), or route them to the market (externalization) and incur costs related to price impact and bid-ask spread. We model and solve this problem for a general class of in-flow processes, enabling us to study in detail how in-flow characteristics affect optimal strategy and core trading metrics. Our model allows for an analytic solution in semi-closed form and is readily implementable numerically. Compared with a standard execution problem where the order size is known upfront, the unwind strategy exhibits an additive adjustment for projected future in-flows. Its sign depends on the autocorrelation of orders; only truth-telling (martingale) flow is unwound myopically. In addition to analytic results, we present extensive simulations for different use cases and regimes, and introduce new metrics of practical interest. ...

Linkages among the Foreign Exchange, Stock, and Bond Markets in Japan and the United States ArXiv ID: 2310.16841 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract While economic theory explains the linkages among the financial markets of different countries, empirical studies mainly verify the linkages through Granger causality, without considering latent variables or instantaneous effects. Their findings are inconsistent regarding the existence of causal linkages among financial markets, which might be attributed to differences in the focused markets, data periods, and methods applied. Our study adopts causal discovery methods including VAR-LiNGAM and LPCMCI with domain knowledge to explore the linkages among financial markets in Japan and the United States (US) for the post Covid-19 pandemic period under divergent monetary policy directions. The VAR-LiNGAM results reveal that the previous day’s US market influences the following day’s Japanese market for both stocks and bonds, and the bond markets of the previous day impact the following day’s foreign exchange (FX) market directly and the following day’s Japanese stock market indirectly. The LPCMCI results indicate the existence of potential latent confounders. Our results demonstrate that VAR-LiNGAM uniquely identifies the directed acyclic graph (DAG), and thus provides informative insight into the causal relationship when the assumptions are considered valid. Our study contributes to a better understanding of the linkages among financial markets in the analyzed data period by supporting the existence of linkages between Japan and the US for the same financial markets and among FX, stock, and bond markets, thus highlighting the importance of leveraging causal discovery methods in the financial domain. ...

Bitcoin versus S&P 500 Index: Return and Risk Analysis ArXiv ID: 2310.02436 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The S&P 500 index is considered the most popular trading instrument in financial markets. With the rise of cryptocurrencies over the past years, Bitcoin has also grown in popularity and adoption. The paper aims to analyze the daily return distribution of the Bitcoin and S&P 500 index and assess their tail probabilities through two financial risk measures. As a methodology, We use Bitcoin and S&P 500 Index daily return data to fit The seven-parameter General Tempered Stable (GTS) distribution using the advanced Fast Fractional Fourier transform (FRFT) scheme developed by combining the Fast Fractional Fourier (FRFT) algorithm and the 12-point rule Composite Newton-Cotes Quadrature. The findings show that peakedness is the main characteristic of the S&P 500 return distribution, whereas heavy-tailedness is the main characteristic of the Bitcoin return distribution. The GTS distribution shows that $80.05%$ of S&P 500 returns are within $-1.06%$ and $1.23%$ against only $40.32%$ of Bitcoin returns. At a risk level ($α$), the severity of the loss ($AVaR_α(X)$) on the left side of the distribution is larger than the severity of the profit ($AVaR_{“1-α”}(X)$) on the right side of the distribution. Compared to the S&P 500 index, Bitcoin has $39.73%$ more prevalence to produce high daily returns (more than $1.23%$ or less than $-1.06%$). The severity analysis shows that at a risk level ($α$) the average value-at-risk ($AVaR(X)$) of the bitcoin returns at one significant figure is four times larger than that of the S&P 500 index returns at the same risk. ...

Utility-based acceptability indices ArXiv ID: 2310.02014 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In this short paper we introduce a new class of performance measures based on certainty equivalents defined via scaled utility functions. We analyse their properties, show that the corresponding portfolio optimization problem is well-posed under generic conditions, and analyse the link between portfolio dynamics, benchmark process, and utility function choice in the long-run setting. Keywords: Certainty Equivalent, Performance Measures, Utility Functions, Long-Run Portfolio Optimization, Multi-Asset ...

Profit and loss attribution: An empirical study ArXiv ID: 2309.07667 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The profit and loss (p&l) attrition for each business year into different risk or risk factors (e.g., interest rates, credit spreads, foreign exchange rate etc.) is a regulatory requirement, e.g., under Solvency 2. Three different decomposition principles are prevalent: one-at-a-time (OAT), sequential updating (SU) and average sequential updating (ASU) decompositions. In this research, using financial market data from 2003 to 2022, we demonstrate that the OAT decomposition can generate significant unexplained p&l and that the SU decompositions depends significantly on the order or labeling of the risk factors. On the basis of an investment in a foreign stock, we further explain that the SU decomposition is not able to identify all relevant risk factors. This potentially effects the hedging strategy of the portfolio manager. In conclusion, we suggest to use the ASU decomposition in practice. ...

A novel approach for quantum financial simulation and quantum state preparation ArXiv ID: 2308.01844 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Quantum state preparation is vital in quantum computing and information processing. The ability to accurately and reliably prepare specific quantum states is essential for various applications. One of the promising applications of quantum computers is quantum simulation. This requires preparing a quantum state representing the system we are trying to simulate. This research introduces a novel simulation algorithm, the multi-Split-Steps Quantum Walk (multi-SSQW), designed to learn and load complicated probability distributions using parameterized quantum circuits (PQC) with a variational solver on classical simulators. The multi-SSQW algorithm is a modified version of the split-steps quantum walk, enhanced to incorporate a multi-agent decision-making process, rendering it suitable for modeling financial markets. The study provides theoretical descriptions and empirical investigations of the multi-SSQW algorithm to demonstrate its promising capabilities in probability distribution simulation and financial market modeling. Harnessing the advantages of quantum computation, the multi-SSQW models complex financial distributions and scenarios with high accuracy, providing valuable insights and mechanisms for financial analysis and decision-making. The multi-SSQW’s key benefits include its modeling flexibility, stable convergence, and instantaneous computation. These advantages underscore its rapid modeling and prediction potential in dynamic financial markets. ...

A quantum double-or-nothing game: The Kelly Criterion for Spins ArXiv ID: 2308.01305 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract A sequence of spin-1/2 particles polarised in one of two possible directions is presented to an experimenter, who can wager in a double-or-nothing game on the outcomes of measurements in freely chosen polarisation directions. Wealth is accrued through astute betting. As information is gained from the stream of particles, the measurement directions are progressively adjusted, and the portfolio growth rate is raised. The optimal quantum strategy is determined numerically and shown to differ from the classical strategy, which is associated with the Kelly criterion. The paper contributes to the development of quantum finance, as aspects of portfolio optimisation are extended to the quantum realm. ...

Leveraging Deep Learning and Online Source Sentiment for Financial Portfolio Management ArXiv ID: 2309.16679 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Financial portfolio management describes the task of distributing funds and conducting trading operations on a set of financial assets, such as stocks, index funds, foreign exchange or cryptocurrencies, aiming to maximize the profit while minimizing the loss incurred by said operations. Deep Learning (DL) methods have been consistently excelling at various tasks and automated financial trading is one of the most complex one of those. This paper aims to provide insight into various DL methods for financial trading, under both the supervised and reinforcement learning schemes. At the same time, taking into consideration sentiment information regarding the traded assets, we discuss and demonstrate their usefulness through corresponding research studies. Finally, we discuss commonly found problems in training such financial agents and equip the reader with the necessary knowledge to avoid these problems and apply the discussed methods in practice. ...

Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning, Hybrid, and Deep Learning Forecasting Models Evidence from European Financial Markets and Bitcoins ArXiv ID: 2307.08853 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This study analyzes the transmission of market uncertainty on key European financial markets and the cryptocurrency market over an extended period, encompassing the pre, during, and post-pandemic periods. Daily financial market indices and price observations are used to assess the forecasting models. We compare statistical, machine learning, and deep learning forecasting models to evaluate the financial markets, such as the ARIMA, hybrid ETS-ANN, and kNN predictive models. The study results indicate that predicting financial market fluctuations is challenging, and the accuracy levels are generally low in several instances. ARIMA and hybrid ETS-ANN models perform better over extended periods compared to the kNN model, with ARIMA being the best-performing model in 2018-2021 and the hybrid ETS-ANN model being the best-performing model in most of the other subperiods. Still, the kNN model outperforms the others in several periods, depending on the observed accuracy measure. Researchers have advocated using parametric and non-parametric modeling combinations to generate better results. In this study, the results suggest that the hybrid ETS-ANN model is the best-performing model despite its moderate level of accuracy. Thus, the hybrid ETS-ANN model is a promising financial time series forecasting approach. The findings offer financial analysts an additional source that can provide valuable insights for investment decisions. ...

Benchmarking Robustness of Deep Reinforcement Learning approaches to Online Portfolio Management ArXiv ID: 2306.10950 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Deep Reinforcement Learning approaches to Online Portfolio Selection have grown in popularity in recent years. The sensitive nature of training Reinforcement Learning agents implies a need for extensive efforts in market representation, behavior objectives, and training processes, which have often been lacking in previous works. We propose a training and evaluation process to assess the performance of classical DRL algorithms for portfolio management. We found that most Deep Reinforcement Learning algorithms were not robust, with strategies generalizing poorly and degrading quickly during backtesting. ...