Natural Language Processing

AI-Powered (Finance) Scholarship ArXiv ID: ssrn-5060022 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Keywords: Generative AI, Large Language Models (LLMs), Academic Research, Natural Language Processing, Automation, Technology Complexity vs Empirical Score Math Complexity: 1.0/10 Empirical Rigor: 2.0/10 Quadrant: Philosophers Why: The paper focuses on the conceptual process of using LLMs to generate academic papers, rather than presenting complex mathematical models or empirical backtesting results. flowchart TD A["Research Goal<br>Automate Academic Paper Generation"] --> B{"Methodology"} B --> C["Data/Input<br>LLM & Financial Datasets"] B --> D["Data/Input<br>Research Questions"] C --> E["Computational Process<br>LLM Content Generation"] D --> E E --> F["Key Findings<br>Successful Paper Automation"] E --> G["Key Findings<br>Validated Methodology"]

Understanding the Impact of News Articles on the Movement of Market Index: A Case on Nifty 50 ArXiv ID: 2412.06794 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In the recent past, there were several works on the prediction of stock price using different methods. Sentiment analysis of news and tweets and relating them to the movement of stock prices have already been explored. But, when we talk about the news, there can be several topics such as politics, markets, sports etc. It was observed that most of the prior analyses dealt with news or comments associated with particular stock prices only or the researchers dealt with overall sentiment scores only. However, it is quite possible that different topics having different levels of impact on the movement of the stock price or an index. The current study focused on bridging this gap by analysing the movement of Nifty 50 index with respect to the sentiments associated with news items related to various different topic such as sports, politics, markets etc. The study established that sentiment scores of news items of different other topics also have a significant impact on the movement of the index. ...

Generative AI, Managerial Expectations, and Economic Activity ArXiv ID: 2410.03897 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We use generative AI to extract managerial expectations about their economic outlook from 120,000+ corporate conference call transcripts. The resulting AI Economy Score predicts GDP growth, production, and employment up to 10 quarters ahead, beyond existing measures like survey forecasts. Moreover, industry and firm-level measures provide valuable information about sector-specific and individual firm activities. A composite measure that integrates managerial expectations about firm, industry, and macroeconomic conditions further significantly improves the forecasting power and predictive horizon of national and sectoral growth. Our findings show managerial expectations offer unique insights into economic activity, with implications for both macroeconomic and microeconomic decision-making. ...

Cross-Lingual News Event Correlation for Stock Market Trend Prediction ArXiv ID: 2410.00024 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In the modern economic landscape, integrating financial services with Financial Technology (FinTech) has become essential, particularly in stock trend analysis. This study addresses the gap in comprehending financial dynamics across diverse global economies by creating a structured financial dataset and proposing a cross-lingual Natural Language-based Financial Forecasting (NLFF) pipeline for comprehensive financial analysis. Utilizing sentiment analysis, Named Entity Recognition (NER), and semantic textual similarity, we conducted an analytical examination of news articles to extract, map, and visualize financial event timelines, uncovering the correlation between news events and stock market trends. Our method demonstrated a meaningful correlation between stock price movements and cross-linguistic news sentiments, validated by processing two-year cross-lingual news data on two prominent sectors of the Pakistan Stock Exchange. This study offers significant insights into key events, ensuring a substantial decision margin for investors through effective visualization and providing optimal investment opportunities. ...

A First Look at Financial Data Analysis Using ChatGPT-4o ArXiv ID: ssrn-4849578 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract OpenAI’s new flagship model, ChatGPT-4o, released on May 13, 2024, offers enhanced natural language understanding and more coherent responses. In this paper, we Keywords: Large Language Models (LLMs), Natural Language Processing, Generative AI, AI Evaluation, Model Performance, Technology/AI Complexity vs Empirical Score Math Complexity: 4.0/10 Empirical Rigor: 6.5/10 Quadrant: Street Traders Why: The paper involves implementing and comparing specific financial models like ARMA-GARCH, indicating moderate-to-high implementation complexity, but the core mathematics is largely descriptive and comparative rather than novel. Empirical rigor is high due to the use of real datasets (CRSP, Fama-French) and direct backtesting comparisons against Stata. flowchart TD A["Research Goal: Evaluate ChatGPT-4o for Financial Data Analysis"] --> B["Methodology: Zero-shot vs. Chain-of-Thought"] B --> C["Input: Financial Statements & Market Data"] C --> D["Process: Text Generation & Sentiment Analysis"] D --> E["Output: Financial Predictions & Explanations"] E --> F["Key Findings: High Accuracy in NLP Tasks"] F --> G["Outcome: Strong Potential but Limited Numerical Reasoning"]

Optimal Text-Based Time-Series Indices ArXiv ID: 2405.10449 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We propose an approach to construct text-based time-series indices in an optimal way–typically, indices that maximize the contemporaneous relation or the predictive performance with respect to a target variable, such as inflation. We illustrate our methodology with a corpus of news articles from the Wall Street Journal by optimizing text-based indices focusing on tracking the VIX index and inflation expectations. Our results highlight the superior performance of our approach compared to existing indices. ...

Construction of Domain-specified Japanese Large Language Model for Finance through Continual Pre-training ArXiv ID: 2404.10555 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Large language models (LLMs) are now widely used in various fields, including finance. However, Japanese financial-specific LLMs have not been proposed yet. Hence, this study aims to construct a Japanese financial-specific LLM through continual pre-training. Before tuning, we constructed Japanese financial-focused datasets for continual pre-training. As a base model, we employed a Japanese LLM that achieved state-of-the-art performance on Japanese financial benchmarks among the 10-billion-class parameter models. After continual pre-training using the datasets and the base model, the tuned model performed better than the original model on the Japanese financial benchmarks. Moreover, the outputs comparison results reveal that the tuned model’s outputs tend to be better than the original model’s outputs in terms of the quality and length of the answers. These findings indicate that domain-specific continual pre-training is also effective for LLMs. The tuned model is publicly available on Hugging Face. ...

Automatic detection of relevant information, predictions and forecasts in financial news through topic modelling with Latent Dirichlet Allocation ArXiv ID: 2404.01338 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Financial news items are unstructured sources of information that can be mined to extract knowledge for market screening applications. Manual extraction of relevant information from the continuous stream of finance-related news is cumbersome and beyond the skills of many investors, who, at most, can follow a few sources and authors. Accordingly, we focus on the analysis of financial news to identify relevant text and, within that text, forecasts and predictions. We propose a novel Natural Language Processing (NLP) system to assist investors in the detection of relevant financial events in unstructured textual sources by considering both relevance and temporality at the discursive level. Firstly, we segment the text to group together closely related text. Secondly, we apply co-reference resolution to discover internal dependencies within segments. Finally, we perform relevant topic modelling with Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) to separate relevant from less relevant text and then analyse the relevant text using a Machine Learning-oriented temporal approach to identify predictions and speculative statements. We created an experimental data set composed of 2,158 financial news items that were manually labelled by NLP researchers to evaluate our solution. The ROUGE-L values for the identification of relevant text and predictions/forecasts were 0.662 and 0.982, respectively. To our knowledge, this is the first work to jointly consider relevance and temporality at the discursive level. It contributes to the transfer of human associative discourse capabilities to expert systems through the combination of multi-paragraph topic segmentation and co-reference resolution to separate author expression patterns, topic modelling with LDA to detect relevant text, and discursive temporality analysis to identify forecasts and predictions within this text. ...

Construction of a Japanese Financial Benchmark for Large Language Models ArXiv ID: 2403.15062 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract With the recent development of large language models (LLMs), models that focus on certain domains and languages have been discussed for their necessity. There is also a growing need for benchmarks to evaluate the performance of current LLMs in each domain. Therefore, in this study, we constructed a benchmark comprising multiple tasks specific to the Japanese and financial domains and performed benchmark measurements on some models. Consequently, we confirmed that GPT-4 is currently outstanding, and that the constructed benchmarks function effectively. According to our analysis, our benchmark can differentiate benchmark scores among models in all performance ranges by combining tasks with different difficulties. ...

Applying News and Media Sentiment Analysis for Generating Forex Trading Signals ArXiv ID: 2403.00785 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The objective of this research is to examine how sentiment analysis can be employed to generate trading signals for the Foreign Exchange (Forex) market. The author assessed sentiment in social media posts and news articles pertaining to the United States Dollar (USD) using a combination of methods: lexicon-based analysis and the Naive Bayes machine learning algorithm. The findings indicate that sentiment analysis proves valuable in forecasting market movements and devising trading signals. Notably, its effectiveness is consistent across different market conditions. The author concludes that by analyzing sentiment expressed in news and social media, traders can glean insights into prevailing market sentiments towards the USD and other pertinent countries, thereby aiding trading decision-making. This study underscores the importance of weaving sentiment analysis into trading strategies as a pivotal tool for predicting market dynamics. ...