Nowcasting

Dynamic Factor Analysis of Price Movements in the Philippine Stock Exchange ArXiv ID: 2510.15938 “View on arXiv” Authors: Brian Godwin Lim, Dominic Dayta, Benedict Ryan Tiu, Renzo Roel Tan, Len Patrick Dominic Garces, Kazushi Ikeda Abstract The intricate dynamics of stock markets have led to extensive research on models that are able to effectively explain their inherent complexities. This study leverages the econometrics literature to explore the dynamic factor model as an interpretable model with sufficient predictive capabilities for capturing essential market phenomena. Although the model has been extensively applied for predictive purposes, this study focuses on analyzing the extracted loadings and common factors as an alternative framework for understanding stock price dynamics. The results reveal novel insights into traditional market theories when applied to the Philippine Stock Exchange using the Kalman method and maximum likelihood estimation, with subsequent validation against the capital asset pricing model. Notably, a one-factor model extracts a common factor representing systematic or market dynamics similar to the composite index, whereas a two-factor model extracts common factors representing market trends and volatility. Furthermore, an application of the model for nowcasting the growth rates of the Philippine gross domestic product highlights the potential of the extracted common factors as viable real-time market indicators, yielding over a 34% decrease in the out-of-sample prediction error. Overall, the results underscore the value of dynamic factor analysis in gaining a deeper understanding of market price movement dynamics. ...

Predicting Market Troughs: A Machine Learning Approach with Causal Interpretation ArXiv ID: 2509.05922 “View on arXiv” Authors: Peilin Rao, Randall R. Rojas Abstract This paper provides robust, new evidence on the causal drivers of market troughs. We demonstrate that conclusions about these triggers are critically sensitive to model specification, moving beyond restrictive linear models with a flexible DML average partial effect causal machine learning framework. Our robust estimates identify the volatility of options-implied risk appetite and market liquidity as key causal drivers, relationships misrepresented or obscured by simpler models. These findings provide high-frequency empirical support for intermediary asset pricing theories. This causal analysis is enabled by a high-performance nowcasting model that accurately identifies capitulation events in real-time. ...