Option Pricing

Fast Learning in Quantitative Finance with Extreme Learning Machine ArXiv ID: 2505.09551 “View on arXiv” Authors: Liexin Cheng, Xue Cheng, Shuaiqiang Liu Abstract A critical factor in adopting machine learning for time-sensitive financial tasks is computational speed, including model training and inference. This paper demonstrates that a broad class of such problems, especially those previously addressed using deep neural networks, can be efficiently solved using single-layer neural networks without iterative gradient-based training. This is achieved through the extreme learning machine (ELM) framework. ELM utilizes a single-layer network with randomly initialized hidden nodes and output weights obtained via convex optimization, enabling rapid training and inference. We present various applications in both supervised and unsupervised learning settings, including option pricing, intraday return prediction, volatility surface fitting, and numerical solution of partial differential equations. Across these examples, ELM demonstrates notable improvements in computational efficiency while maintaining comparable accuracy and generalization compared to deep neural networks and classical machine learning methods. We also briefly discuss theoretical aspects of ELM implementation and its generalization capabilities. ...

Error Analysis of Deep PDE Solvers for Option Pricing ArXiv ID: 2505.05121 “View on arXiv” Authors: Jasper Rou Abstract Option pricing often requires solving partial differential equations (PDEs). Although deep learning-based PDE solvers have recently emerged as quick solutions to this problem, their empirical and quantitative accuracy remain not well understood, hindering their real-world applicability. In this research, our aim is to offer actionable insights into the utility of deep PDE solvers for practical option pricing implementation. Through comparative experiments in both the Black–Scholes and the Heston model, we assess the empirical performance of two neural network algorithms to solve PDEs: the Deep Galerkin Method and the Time Deep Gradient Flow method (TDGF). We determine their empirical convergence rates and training time as functions of (i) the number of sampling stages, (ii) the number of samples, (iii) the number of layers, and (iv) the number of nodes per layer. For the TDGF, we also consider the order of the discretization scheme and the number of time steps. ...

A new architecture of high-order deep neural networks that learn martingales ArXiv ID: 2505.03789 “View on arXiv” Authors: Syoiti Ninomiya, Yuming Ma Abstract A new deep-learning neural network architecture based on high-order weak approximation algorithms for stochastic differential equations (SDEs) is proposed. The architecture enables the efficient learning of martingales by deep learning models. The behaviour of deep neural networks based on this architecture, when applied to the problem of pricing financial derivatives, is also examined. The core of this new architecture lies in the high-order weak approximation algorithms of the explicit Runge–Kutta type, wherein the approximation is realised solely through iterative compositions and linear combinations of vector fields of the target SDEs. ...

Deep Learning vs. Black-Scholes: Option Pricing Performance on Brazilian Petrobras Stocks ArXiv ID: 2504.20088 “View on arXiv” Authors: Joao Felipe Gueiros, Hemanth Chandravamsi, Steven H. Frankel Abstract This paper explores the use of deep residual networks for pricing European options on Petrobras, one of the world’s largest oil and gas producers, and compares its performance with the Black-Scholes (BS) model. Using eight years of historical data from B3 (Brazilian Stock Exchange) collected via web scraping, a deep learning model was trained using a custom built hybrid loss function that incorporates market data and analytical pricing. The data for training and testing were drawn between the period spanning November 2016 to January 2025, using an 80-20 train-test split. The test set consisted of data from the final three months: November, December, and January 2025. The deep residual network model achieved a 64.3% reduction in the mean absolute error for the 3-19 BRL (Brazilian Real) range when compared to the Black-Scholes model on the test set. Furthermore, unlike the Black-Scholes solution, which tends to decrease its accuracy for longer periods of time, the deep learning model performed accurately for longer expiration periods. These findings highlight the potential of deep learning in financial modeling, with future work focusing on specialized models for different price ranges. ...

Mathematical Modeling of Option Pricing with an Extended Black-Scholes Framework ArXiv ID: 2504.03175 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This study investigates enhancing option pricing by extending the Black-Scholes model to include stochastic volatility and interest rate variability within the Partial Differential Equation (PDE). The PDE is solved using the finite difference method. The extended Black-Scholes model and a machine learning-based LSTM model are developed and evaluated for pricing Google stock options. Both models were backtested using historical market data. While the LSTM model exhibited higher predictive accuracy, the finite difference method demonstrated superior computational efficiency. This work provides insights into model performance under varying market conditions and emphasizes the potential of hybrid approaches for robust financial modeling. ...

A nested MLMC framework for efficient simulations on FPGAs ArXiv ID: 2502.07123 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) reduces the total computational cost of financial option pricing by combining SDE approximations with multiple resolutions. This paper explores a further avenue for reducing cost and improving power efficiency through the use of low precision calculations on configurable hardware devices such as Field-Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs). We propose a new framework that exploits approximate random variables and fixed-point operations with optimised precision to generate most SDE paths with a lower cost and reduce the overall cost of the MLMC framework. We first discuss several methods for the cheap generation of approximate random Normal increments. To set the bit-width of variables in the path generation we then propose a rounding error model and optimise the precision of all variables on each MLMC level. With these key improvements, our proposed framework offers higher computational savings than the existing mixed-precision MLMC frameworks. ...

Correct implied volatility shapes and reliable pricing in the rough Heston model ArXiv ID: 2412.16067 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We use modifications of the Adams method and very fast and accurate sinh-acceleration method of the Fourier inversion (iFT) (S.Boyarchenko and Levendorskiĭ, IJTAF 2019, v.22) to evaluate prices of vanilla options; for options of moderate and long maturities and strikes not very far from the spot, thousands of prices can be calculated in several msec. with relative errors of the order of 0.5% and smaller running Matlab on a Mac with moderate characteristics. We demonstrate that for the calibrated set of parameters in Euch and Rosenbaum, Math. Finance 2019, v. 29, the correct implied volatility surface is significantly flatter and fits the data very poorly, hence, the calibration results in op.cit. is an example of the {"\em ghost calibration"} (M.Boyarchenko and Levendorkiĭ, Quantitative Finance 2015, v. 15): the errors of the model and numerical method almost cancel one another. We explain how calibration errors of this sort are generated by each of popular versions of numerical realizations of iFT (Carr-Madan, Lipton-Lewis and COS methods) with prefixed parameters of a numerical method, resulting in spurious volatility smiles and skews. We suggest a general {"\em Conformal Bootstrap principle"} which allows one to avoid ghost calibration errors. We outline schemes of application of Conformal Bootstrap principle and the method of the paper to the design of accurate and fast calibration procedures. ...

The AI Black-Scholes: Finance-Informed Neural Network ArXiv ID: 2412.12213 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In the realm of option pricing, existing models are typically classified into principle-driven methods, such as solving partial differential equations (PDEs) that pricing function satisfies, and data-driven approaches, such as machine learning (ML) techniques that parameterize the pricing function directly. While principle-driven models offer a rigorous theoretical framework, they often rely on unrealistic assumptions, such as asset processes adhering to fixed stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Moreover, they can become computationally intensive, particularly in high-dimensional settings when analytical solutions are not available and thus numerical solutions are needed. In contrast, data-driven models excel in capturing market data trends, but they often lack alignment with core financial principles, raising concerns about interpretability and predictive accuracy, especially when dealing with limited or biased datasets. This work proposes a hybrid approach to address these limitations by integrating the strengths of both principled and data-driven methodologies. Our framework combines the theoretical rigor and interpretability of PDE-based models with the adaptability of machine learning techniques, yielding a more versatile methodology for pricing a broad spectrum of options. We validate our approach across different volatility modeling approaches-both with constant volatility (Black-Scholes) and stochastic volatility (Heston), demonstrating that our proposed framework, Finance-Informed Neural Network (FINN), not only enhances predictive accuracy but also maintains adherence to core financial principles. FINN presents a promising tool for practitioners, offering robust performance across a variety of market conditions. ...

Probabilistic Predictions of Option Prices Using Multiple Sources of Data ArXiv ID: 2412.00658 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract A new modular approximate Bayesian inferential framework is proposed that enables fast calculation of probabilistic predictions of future option prices. We exploit multiple information sources, including daily spot returns, high-frequency spot data and option prices. A benefit of this modular Bayesian approach is that it allows us to work with the theoretical option pricing model, without needing to specify an arbitrary statistical model that links the theoretical prices to their observed counterparts. We show that our approach produces accurate probabilistic predictions of option prices in realistic scenarios and, despite not explicitly modelling pricing errors, the method is shown to be robust to their presence. Predictive accuracy based on the Heston stochastic volatility model, with predictions produced via rapid real-time updates, is illustrated empirically for short-maturity options. ...

On the relative performance of some parametric and nonparametric estimators of option prices ArXiv ID: 2412.00135 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We examine the empirical performance of some parametric and nonparametric estimators of prices of options with a fixed time to maturity, focusing on variance-gamma and Heston models on one side, and on expansions in Hermite functions on the other side. The latter class of estimators can be seen as perturbations of the classical Black-Scholes model. The comparison between parametric and Hermite-based models having the same “degrees of freedom” is emphasized. The main criterion is the out-of-sample relative pricing error on a dataset of historical option prices on the S&P500 index. Prior to the main empirical study, the approximation of variance-gamma and Heston densities by series of Hermite functions is studied, providing explicit expressions for the coefficients of the expansion in the former case, and integral expressions involving the explicit characteristic function in the latter case. Moreover, these approximations are investigated numerically on a few test cases, indicating that expansions in Hermite functions with few terms achieve competitive accuracy in the estimation of Heston densities and the pricing of (European) options, but they perform less effectively with variance-gamma densities. On the other hand, the main large-scale empirical study show that parsimonious Hermite estimators can even outperform the Heston model in terms of pricing errors. These results underscore the trade-offs inherent in model selection and calibration, and their empirical fit in practical applications. ...