Portfolio Optimization

A Fully Analog Pipeline for Portfolio Optimization ArXiv ID: 2411.06566 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Portfolio optimization is a ubiquitous problem in financial mathematics that relies on accurate estimates of covariance matrices for asset returns. However, estimates of pairwise covariance could be better and calculating time-sensitive optimal portfolios is energy-intensive for digital computers. We present an energy-efficient, fast, and fully analog pipeline for solving portfolio optimization problems that overcomes these limitations. The analog paradigm leverages the fundamental principles of physics to recover accurate optimal portfolios in a two-step process. Firstly, we utilize equilibrium propagation, an analog alternative to backpropagation, to train linear autoencoder neural networks to calculate low-rank covariance matrices. Then, analog continuous Hopfield networks output the minimum variance portfolio for a given desired expected return. The entire efficient frontier may then be recovered, and an optimal portfolio selected based on risk appetite. ...

A Survey of Financial AI: Architectures, Advances and Open Challenges ArXiv ID: 2411.12747 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Financial AI empowers sophisticated approaches to financial market forecasting, portfolio optimization, and automated trading. This survey provides a systematic analysis of these developments across three primary dimensions: predictive models that capture complex market dynamics, decision-making frameworks that optimize trading and investment strategies, and knowledge augmentation systems that leverage unstructured financial information. We examine significant innovations including foundation models for financial time series, graph-based architectures for market relationship modeling, and hierarchical frameworks for portfolio optimization. Analysis reveals crucial trade-offs between model sophistication and practical constraints, particularly in high-frequency trading applications. We identify critical gaps and open challenges between theoretical advances and industrial implementation, outlining open challenges and opportunities for improving both model performance and practical applicability. ...

Constrained portfolio optimization in a life-cycle model ArXiv ID: 2410.20060 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper considers the constrained portfolio optimization in a generalized life-cycle model. The individual with a stochastic income manages a portfolio consisting of stocks, a bond, and life insurance to maximize his or her consumption level, death benefit, and terminal wealth. Meanwhile, the individual faces a convex-set trading constraint, of which the non-tradeable asset constraint, no short-selling constraint, and no borrowing constraint are special cases. Following Cuoco (1997), we build the artificial markets to derive the dual problem and prove the existence of the original problem. With additional discussions, we extend his uniformly bounded assumption on the interest rate to an almost surely finite expectation condition and enlarge his uniformly bounded assumption on the income process to a bounded expectation condition. Moreover, we propose a dual control neural network approach to compute tight lower and upper bounds for the original problem, which can be utilized in more general cases than the simulation of artificial markets strategies (SAMS) approach in Bick et al. (2013). Finally, we conclude that when considering the trading constraints, the individual will reduce his or her demand for life insurance. ...

Quantum Computing for Multi Period Asset Allocation ArXiv ID: 2410.11997 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Portfolio construction has been a long-standing topic of research in finance. The computational complexity and the time taken both increase rapidly with the number of investments in the portfolio. It becomes difficult, even impossible for classic computers to solve. Quantum computing is a new way of computing which takes advantage of quantum superposition and entanglement. It changes how such problems are approached and is not constrained by some of the classic computational complexity. Studies have shown that quantum computing can offer significant advantages over classical computing in many fields. The application of quantum computing has been constrained by the unavailability of actual quantum computers. In the past decade, there has been the rapid development of the large-scale quantum computer. However, software development for quantum computing is slow in many fields. In our study, we apply quantum computing to a multi-asset portfolio simulation. The simulation is based on historic data, covariance, and expected returns, all calculated using quantum computing. Although technically a solvable problem for classical computing, we believe the software development is important to the future application of quantum computing in finance. We conducted this study through simulation of a quantum computer and the use of Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute’s IBM quantum computer. ...

Sample Average Approximation for Portfolio Optimization under CVaR constraint in an (re)insurance context ArXiv ID: 2410.10239 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We consider optimal allocation problems with Conditional Value-At-Risk (CVaR) constraint. We prove, under very mild assumptions, the convergence of the Sample Average Approximation method (SAA) applied to this problem, and we also exhibit a convergence rate and discuss the uniqueness of the solution. These results give (re)insurers a practical solution to portfolio optimization under market regulatory constraints, i.e. a certain level of risk. ...

Quantum-Inspired Portfolio Optimization In The QUBO Framework ArXiv ID: 2410.05932 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract A quantum-inspired optimization approach is proposed to study the portfolio optimization aimed at selecting an optimal mix of assets based on the risk-return trade-off to achieve the desired goal in investment. By integrating conventional approaches with quantum-inspired methods for penalty coefficient estimation, this approach enables faster and accurate solutions to portfolio optimization which is validated through experiments using a real-world dataset of quarterly financial data spanning over ten-year period. In addition, the proposed preprocessing method of two-stage search further enhances the effectiveness of our approach, showing the ability to improve computational efficiency while maintaining solution accuracy through appropriate setting of parameters. This research contributes to the growing body of literature on quantum-inspired techniques in finance, demonstrating its potential as a useful tool for asset allocation and portfolio management. ...

Deep Learning Methods for S Shaped Utility Maximisation with a Random Reference Point ArXiv ID: 2410.05524 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We consider the portfolio optimisation problem where the terminal function is an S-shaped utility applied at the difference between the wealth and a random benchmark process. We develop several numerical methods for solving the problem using deep learning and duality methods. We use deep learning methods to solve the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation for both the primal and dual problems, and the adjoint equation arising from the stochastic maximum principle. We compare the solution of this non-concave problem to that of concavified utility, a random function depending on the benchmark, in both complete and incomplete markets. We give some numerical results for power and log utilities to show the accuracy of the suggested algorithms. ...

Improving Portfolio Optimization Results with Bandit Networks ArXiv ID: 2410.04217 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In Reinforcement Learning (RL), multi-armed Bandit (MAB) problems have found applications across diverse domains such as recommender systems, healthcare, and finance. Traditional MAB algorithms typically assume stationary reward distributions, which limits their effectiveness in real-world scenarios characterized by non-stationary dynamics. This paper addresses this limitation by introducing and evaluating novel Bandit algorithms designed for non-stationary environments. First, we present the Adaptive Discounted Thompson Sampling (ADTS) algorithm, which enhances adaptability through relaxed discounting and sliding window mechanisms to better respond to changes in reward distributions. We then extend this approach to the Portfolio Optimization problem by introducing the Combinatorial Adaptive Discounted Thompson Sampling (CADTS) algorithm, which addresses computational challenges within Combinatorial Bandits and improves dynamic asset allocation. Additionally, we propose a novel architecture called Bandit Networks, which integrates the outputs of ADTS and CADTS, thereby mitigating computational limitations in stock selection. Through extensive experiments using real financial market data, we demonstrate the potential of these algorithms and architectures in adapting to dynamic environments and optimizing decision-making processes. For instance, the proposed bandit network instances present superior performance when compared to classic portfolio optimization approaches, such as capital asset pricing model, equal weights, risk parity, and Markovitz, with the best network presenting an out-of-sample Sharpe Ratio 20% higher than the best performing classical model. ...

Consistent Estimation of the High-Dimensional Efficient Frontier ArXiv ID: 2409.15103 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In this paper, we analyze the asymptotic behavior of the main characteristics of the mean-variance efficient frontier employing random matrix theory. Our particular interest covers the case when the dimension $p$ and the sample size $n$ tend to infinity simultaneously and their ratio $p/n$ tends to a positive constant $c\in(0,1)$. We neither impose any distributional nor structural assumptions on the asset returns. For the developed theoretical framework, some regularity conditions, like the existence of the $4$th moments, are needed. It is shown that two out of three quantities of interest are biased and overestimated by their sample counterparts under the high-dimensional asymptotic regime. This becomes evident based on the asymptotic deterministic equivalents of the sample plug-in estimators. Using them we construct consistent estimators of the three characteristics of the efficient frontier. It it shown that the additive and/or the multiplicative biases of the sample estimates are solely functions of the concentration ratio $c$. Furthermore, the asymptotic normality of the considered estimators of the parameters of the efficient frontier is proved. Verifying the theoretical results based on an extensive simulation study we show that the proposed estimator for the efficient frontier is a valuable alternative to the sample estimator for high dimensional data. Finally, we present an empirical application, where we estimate the efficient frontier based on the stocks included in S&P 500 index. ...

A Krasnoselskii-Mann Proximity Algorithm for Markowitz Portfolios with Adaptive Expected Return Level ArXiv ID: 2409.13608 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Markowitz’s criterion aims to balance expected return and risk when optimizing the portfolio. The expected return level is usually fixed according to the risk appetite of an investor, then the risk is minimized at this fixed return level. However, the investor may not know which return level is suitable for her/him and the current financial circumstance. It motivates us to find a novel approach that adaptively optimizes this return level and the portfolio at the same time. It not only relieves the trouble of deciding the return level during an investment but also gets more adaptive to the ever-changing financial market than a subjective return level. In order to solve the new model, we propose an exact, convergent, and efficient Krasnoselskii-Mann Proximity Algorithm based on the proximity operator and Krasnoselskii-Mann momentum technique. Extensive experiments show that the proposed method achieves significant improvements over state-of-the-art methods in portfolio optimization. This finding may contribute a new perspective on the relationship between return and risk in portfolio optimization. ...