Portfolio Selection

Conformal Predictive Portfolio Selection ArXiv ID: 2410.16333 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This study examines portfolio selection using predictive models for portfolio returns. Portfolio selection is a fundamental task in finance, and a variety of methods have been developed to achieve this goal. For instance, the mean-variance approach constructs portfolios by balancing the trade-off between the mean and variance of asset returns, while the quantile-based approach optimizes portfolios by considering tail risk. These methods often depend on distributional information estimated from historical data using predictive models, each of which carries its own uncertainty. To address this, we propose a framework for predictive portfolio selection via conformal prediction , called \emph{“Conformal Predictive Portfolio Selection”} (CPPS). Our approach forecasts future portfolio returns, computes the corresponding prediction intervals, and selects the portfolio of interest based on these intervals. The framework is flexible and can accommodate a wide range of predictive models, including autoregressive (AR) models, random forests, and neural networks. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the CPPS framework by applying it to an AR model and validate its performance through empirical studies, showing that it delivers superior returns compared to simpler strategies. ...

Aproximación práctica a los métodos de selección de portafolios de inversión ArXiv ID: 2410.11070 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper explores the practical approach to portfolio selection methods for investments. The study delves into portfolio theory, discussing concepts such as expected return, variance, asset correlation, and opportunity sets. It also presents the efficient frontier and its application in the Markowitz model, which employs mean-variance optimization techniques. An alternative approach based on the mean-semivariance model is introduced. This model accounts for the skewness and kurtosis of the asset return distribution, providing a more comprehensive view of risk and return. The study also addresses the practical implementation of these models, including the use of genetic algorithms to optimize portfolio selection. Additionally, transaction costs and integer constraints in portfolio optimization are considered, demonstrating the applicability of the Markowitz model. Este documento explorar la aproximación práctica a los métodos de selección de portafolios para inversiones. El estudio profundiza en la teoría de los portafolios, discutiendo conceptos como el rendimiento esperado, la varianza, la correlación entre activos y los conjuntos de oportunidades. También presenta la frontera eficiente y su aplicación en el modelo de Markowitz, que utiliza técnicas de optimización media-varianza. Se introduce un enfoque alternativo basado en el modelo media-semivarianza. Este modelo tiene en cuenta la asimetría y la curtosis de la distribución de retornos de los activos, proporcionando una visión más completa de riesgo y rendimiento. El estudio también aborda la implementación práctica de estos modelos, incluyendo el uso de algoritmos genéticos para optimizar la selección de portafolios. Además, se consideran los costos de transacción y las restricciones enteras en la optimización del portafolio. ...

Two-fund separation under hyperbolically distributed returns and concave utility functions ArXiv ID: 2410.04459 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Portfolio selection problems that optimize expected utility are usually difficult to solve. If the number of assets in the portfolio is large, such expected utility maximization problems become even harder to solve numerically. Therefore, analytical expressions for optimal portfolios are always preferred. In our work, we study portfolio optimization problems under the expected utility criterion for a wide range of utility functions, assuming return vectors follow hyperbolic distributions. Our main result demonstrates that under this setup, the two-fund monetary separation holds. Specifically, an individual with any utility function from this broad class will always choose to hold the same portfolio of risky assets, only adjusting the mix between this portfolio and a riskless asset based on their initial wealth and the specific utility function used for decision making. We provide explicit expressions for this mutual fund of risky assets. As a result, in our economic model, an individual’s optimal portfolio is expressed in closed form as a linear combination of the riskless asset and the mutual fund of risky assets. Additionally, we discuss expected utility maximization problems under exponential utility functions over any domain of the portfolio set. In this part of our work, we show that the optimal portfolio in any given convex domain of the portfolio set either lies on the boundary of the domain or is the unique globally optimal portfolio within the entire domain. ...

Generalized Exponentiated Gradient Algorithms and Their Application to On-Line Portfolio Selection ArXiv ID: 2406.00655 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper introduces a novel family of generalized exponentiated gradient (EG) updates derived from an Alpha-Beta divergence regularization function. Collectively referred to as EGAB, the proposed updates belong to the category of multiplicative gradient algorithms for positive data and demonstrate considerable flexibility by controlling iteration behavior and performance through three hyperparameters: $α$, $β$, and the learning rate $η$. To enforce a unit $l_1$ norm constraint for nonnegative weight vectors within generalized EGAB algorithms, we develop two slightly distinct approaches. One method exploits scale-invariant loss functions, while the other relies on gradient projections onto the feasible domain. As an illustration of their applicability, we evaluate the proposed updates in addressing the online portfolio selection problem (OLPS) using gradient-based methods. Here, they not only offer a unified perspective on the search directions of various OLPS algorithms (including the standard exponentiated gradient and diverse mean-reversion strategies), but also facilitate smooth interpolation and extension of these updates due to the flexibility in hyperparameter selection. Simulation results confirm that the adaptability of these generalized gradient updates can effectively enhance the performance for some portfolios, particularly in scenarios involving transaction costs. ...

Dynamic portfolio selection under generalized disappointment aversion ArXiv ID: 2401.08323 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper addresses the continuous-time portfolio selection problem under generalized disappointment aversion (GDA). The implicit definition of the certainty equivalent within GDA preferences introduces time inconsistency to this problem. We provide the sufficient and necessary condition for a strategy to be an equilibrium by a fully nonlinear integral equation. Investigating the existence and uniqueness of the solution to the integral equation, we establish the existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium. Our findings indicate that under disappointment aversion preferences, non-participation in the stock market is the unique equilibrium. The semi-analytical equilibrium strategies obtained under the constant relative risk aversion utility functions reveal that, under GDA preferences, the investment proportion in the stock market consistently remains smaller than the investment proportion under classical expected utility theory. The numerical analysis shows that the equilibrium strategy’s monotonicity concerning the two parameters of GDA preference aligns with the monotonicity of the degree of risk aversion. ...

A new behavioral model for portfolio selection using the Half-Full/Half-Empty approach ArXiv ID: 2312.10749 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We focus on a behavioral model, that has been recently proposed in the literature, whose rational can be traced back to the Half-Full/Half-Empty glass metaphor. More precisely, we generalize the Half-Full/Half-Empty approach to the context of positive and negative lotteries and give financial and behavioral interpretations of the Half-Full/Half-Empty parameters. We develop a portfolio selection model based on the Half-Full/Half-Empty strategy, resulting in a nonconvex optimization problem, which, nonetheless, is proven to be equivalent to an alternative Mixed-Integer Linear Programming formulation. By means of the ensuing empirical analysis, based on three real-world datasets, the Half-Full/Half-Empty model is shown to be very versatile by appropriately varying its parameters, and to provide portfolios displaying promising performances in terms of risk and profitability, compared with Prospect Theory, risk minimization approaches and Equally-Weighted portfolios. ...

Dynamic portfolio selection for nonlinear law-dependent preferences ArXiv ID: 2311.06745 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper addresses the portfolio selection problem for nonlinear law-dependent preferences in continuous time, which inherently exhibit time inconsistency. Employing the method of stochastic maximum principle, we establish verification theorems for equilibrium strategies, accommodating both random market coefficients and incomplete markets. We derive the first-order condition (FOC) for the equilibrium strategies, using a notion of functional derivatives with respect to probability distributions. Then, with the help of the FOC we obtain the equilibrium strategies in closed form for two classes of implicitly defined preferences: CRRA and CARA betweenness preferences, with deterministic market coefficients. Finally, to show applications of our theoretical results to problems with random market coefficients, we examine the weighted utility. We reveal that the equilibrium strategy can be described by a coupled system of Quadratic Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (QBSDEs). The well-posedness of this system is generally open but is established under the special structures of our problem. ...

Benchmark Beating with the Increasing Convex Order ArXiv ID: 2311.01692 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In this paper we model benchmark beating with the increasing convex order (ICX order). The mean constraint in the mean-variance theory of portfolio selection can be regarded as beating a constant. We then investigate the problem of minimizing the variance of a portfolio with ICX order constraints, based on which we also study the problem of beating-performance-variance efficient portfolios. The optimal and efficient portfolios are all worked out in closed form for complete markets. ...

Multidimensional indefinite stochastic Riccati equations and zero-sum stochastic linear-quadratic differential games with non-Markovian regime switching ArXiv ID: 2309.05003 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper is concerned with zero-sum stochastic linear-quadratic differential games in a regime switching model. The coefficients of the games depend on the underlying noises, so it is a non-Markovian regime switching model. Based on the solutions of a new kind of multidimensional indefinite stochastic Riccati equation (SRE) and a multidimensional linear backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) with unbounded coefficients, we provide closed-loop optimal feedback control-strategy pairs for the two players. The main contribution of this paper, which is of great importance in its own right from the BSDE theory point of view, is to prove the existence and uniqueness of the solution to the new kind of SRE. Notably, the first component of the solution (as a process) is capable of taking positive and negative values simultaneously. For homogeneous systems, we obtain the optimal feedback control-strategy pairs under general closed convex cone control constraints. Finally, these results are applied to portfolio selection games with full or partial no-shorting constraint in a regime switching market with random coefficients. ...

Grover Search for Portfolio Selection ArXiv ID: 2308.13063 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We present explicit oracles designed to be used in Grover’s algorithm to match investor preferences. Specifically, the oracles select portfolios with returns and standard deviations exceeding and falling below certain thresholds, respectively. One potential use case for the oracles is selecting portfolios with the best Sharpe ratios. We have implemented these algorithms using quantum simulators. Keywords: Grover’s Algorithm, Portfolio Selection, Quantum Oracles, Sharpe Ratio, Quantum Computing ...