Price Prediction

Financial Fine-tuning a Large Time Series Model ArXiv ID: 2412.09880 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Large models have shown unprecedented capabilities in natural language processing, image generation, and most recently, time series forecasting. This leads us to ask the question: treating market prices as a time series, can large models be used to predict the market? In this paper, we answer this by evaluating the performance of the latest time series foundation model TimesFM on price prediction. We find that due to the irregular nature of price data, directly applying TimesFM gives unsatisfactory results and propose to fine-tune TimeFM on financial data for the task of price prediction. This is done by continual pre-training of the latest time series foundation model TimesFM on price data containing 100 million time points, spanning a range of financial instruments spanning hourly and daily granularities. The fine-tuned model demonstrates higher price prediction accuracy than the baseline model. We conduct mock trading for our model in various financial markets and show that it outperforms various benchmarks in terms of returns, sharpe ratio, max drawdown and trading cost. ...

Forecasting the Price of Rice in Banda Aceh after Covid-19 ArXiv ID: 2411.15228 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This research aims to predict the price of rice in Banda Aceh after the occurrence of Covid-19. The last observation carried forward (LOCF) imputation technique has been used to solve the problem of missing values from this research data. Furthermore, the technique used to forecast rice prices in Banda Aceh is auto-ARIMA which is the best ARIMA model based on AIC, AICC, or BIC values. The results of this research show that the ARIMA model (0,0,5) is the best model to predict the prices of lower quality rice I (BKB1), lower quality rice II (BKB2), medium quality rice I (BKM1), medium quality rice II (BKM2), super quality rice I (BKS1), and super quality rice II (BKS2). Based on this model, the results of forecasting rice prices for all qualities show that there was a decline for some time (between September 1, 2023 and September 6, 2023) and then remained constant (between September 6, 2023 and December 31, 2023). ...

High resolution microprice estimates from limit orderbook data using hyperdimensional vector Tsetlin Machines ArXiv ID: 2411.13594 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We propose an error-correcting model for the microprice, a high-frequency estimator of future prices given higher order information of imbalances in the orderbook. The model takes into account a current microprice estimate given the spread and best bid to ask imbalance, and adjusts the microprice based on recent dynamics of higher price rank imbalances. We introduce a computationally fast estimator using a recently proposed hyperdimensional vector Tsetlin machine framework and demonstrate empirically that this estimator can provide a robust estimate of future prices in the orderbook. ...

Critical comparisons on deep learning approaches for foreign exchange rate prediction ArXiv ID: 2307.06600 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In a natural market environment, the price prediction model needs to be updated in real time according to the data obtained by the system to ensure the accuracy of the prediction. In order to improve the user experience of the system, the price prediction function needs to use the fastest training model and the model prediction fitting effect of the best network as a predictive model. We conduct research on the fundamental theories of RNN, LSTM, and BP neural networks, analyse their respective characteristics, and discuss their advantages and disadvantages to provide a reference for the selection of price-prediction models. ...

Dynamic Bayesian Networks for Predicting Cryptocurrency Price Directions: Uncovering Causal Relationships ArXiv ID: 2306.08157 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Cryptocurrencies have gained popularity across various sectors, especially in finance and investment. Despite their growing popularity, cryptocurrencies can be a high-risk investment due to their price volatility. The inherent volatility in cryptocurrency prices, coupled with the effects of external global economic factors, makes predicting their price movements challenging. To address this challenge, we propose a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN)-based approach to uncover potential causal relationships among various features including social media data, traditional financial market factors, and technical indicators. Six popular cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Binance Coin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple, and Tether are studied in this work. The proposed model’s performance is compared to five baseline models of auto-regressive integrated moving average, support vector regression, long short-term memory, random forests, and support vector machines. The results show that while DBN performance varies across cryptocurrencies, with some cryptocurrencies exhibiting higher predictive accuracy than others, the DBN significantly outperforms the baseline models. ...