Trade Execution Flow as the Underlying Source of Market Dynamics
Trade Execution Flow as the Underlying Source of Market Dynamics ArXiv ID: 2511.01471 “View on arXiv” Authors: Mikhail Gennadievich Belov, Victor Victorovich Dubov, Vadim Konstantinovich Ivanov, Alexander Yurievich Maslov, Olga Vladimirovna Proshina, Vladislav Gennadievich Malyshkin Abstract In this work, we demonstrate experimentally that the execution flow, $I = dV/dt$, is the fundamental driving force of market dynamics. We develop a numerical framework to calculate execution flow from sampled moments using the Radon-Nikodym derivative. A notable feature of this approach is its ability to automatically determine thresholds that can serve as actionable triggers. The technique also determines the characteristic time scale directly from the corresponding eigenproblem. The methodology has been validated on actual market data to support these findings. Additionally, we introduce a framework based on the Christoffel function spectrum, which is invariant under arbitrary non-degenerate linear transformations of input attributes and offers an alternative to traditional principal component analysis (PCA), which is limited to unitary invariance. ...