Regime Switching

Examining the Effect of Monetary Policy and Monetary Policy Uncertainty on Cryptocurrencies Market ArXiv ID: 2311.10739 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This study investigates the influence of monetary policy and monetary policy uncertainties on Bitcoin returns, utilizing monthly data of BTC, and MPU from July 2010 to August 2023, and employing the Markov Switching Means VAR (MSM-VAR) method. The findings reveal that Bitcoin returns can be categorized into two distinct regimes: 1) regime 1 with low volatility, and 2) regime 2 with high volatility. In both regimes, an increase in MPU leads to a decline in Bitcoin returns: -0.028 in regime 1 and -0.44 in regime 2. This indicates that monetary policy uncertainty exerts a negative influence on Bitcoin returns during both downturns and upswings. Furthermore, the study explores Bitcoin’s sensitivity to Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions. ...

Multidimensional indefinite stochastic Riccati equations and zero-sum stochastic linear-quadratic differential games with non-Markovian regime switching ArXiv ID: 2309.05003 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper is concerned with zero-sum stochastic linear-quadratic differential games in a regime switching model. The coefficients of the games depend on the underlying noises, so it is a non-Markovian regime switching model. Based on the solutions of a new kind of multidimensional indefinite stochastic Riccati equation (SRE) and a multidimensional linear backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) with unbounded coefficients, we provide closed-loop optimal feedback control-strategy pairs for the two players. The main contribution of this paper, which is of great importance in its own right from the BSDE theory point of view, is to prove the existence and uniqueness of the solution to the new kind of SRE. Notably, the first component of the solution (as a process) is capable of taking positive and negative values simultaneously. For homogeneous systems, we obtain the optimal feedback control-strategy pairs under general closed convex cone control constraints. Finally, these results are applied to portfolio selection games with full or partial no-shorting constraint in a regime switching market with random coefficients. ...

Online Learning of Order Flow and Market Impact with Bayesian Change-Point Detection Methods ArXiv ID: 2307.02375 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Financial order flow exhibits a remarkable level of persistence, wherein buy (sell) trades are often followed by subsequent buy (sell) trades over extended periods. This persistence can be attributed to the division and gradual execution of large orders. Consequently, distinct order flow regimes might emerge, which can be identified through suitable time series models applied to market data. In this paper, we propose the use of Bayesian online change-point detection (BOCPD) methods to identify regime shifts in real-time and enable online predictions of order flow and market impact. To enhance the effectiveness of our approach, we have developed a novel BOCPD method using a score-driven approach. This method accommodates temporal correlations and time-varying parameters within each regime. Through empirical application to NASDAQ data, we have found that: (i) Our newly proposed model demonstrates superior out-of-sample predictive performance compared to existing models that assume i.i.d. behavior within each regime; (ii) When examining the residuals, our model demonstrates good specification in terms of both distributional assumptions and temporal correlations; (iii) Within a given regime, the price dynamics exhibit a concave relationship with respect to time and volume, mirroring the characteristics of actual large orders; (iv) By incorporating regime information, our model produces more accurate online predictions of order flow and market impact compared to models that do not consider regimes. ...

Value-at-Risk-Based Portfolio Insurance: Performance Evaluation and Benchmarking Against CPPI in a Markov-Modulated Regime-Switching Market ArXiv ID: 2305.12539 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Designing dynamic portfolio insurance strategies under market conditions switching between two or more regimes is a challenging task in financial economics. Recently, a promising approach employing the value-at-risk (VaR) measure to assign weights to risky and riskless assets has been proposed in [“Jiang C., Ma Y. and An Y. “The effectiveness of the VaR-based portfolio insurance strategy: An empirical analysis” , International Review of Financial Analysis 18(4) (2009): 185-197”]. In their study, the risky asset follows a geometric Brownian motion with constant drift and diffusion coefficients. In this paper, we first extend their idea to a regime-switching framework in which the expected return of the risky asset and its volatility depend on an unobservable Markovian term which describes the cyclical nature of asset returns in modern financial markets. We then analyze and compare the resulting VaR-based portfolio insurance (VBPI) strategy with the well-known constant proportion portfolio insurance (CPPI) strategy. In this respect, we employ a variety of performance evaluation criteria such as Sharpe, Omega and Kappa ratios to compare the two methods. Our results indicate that the CPPI strategy has a better risk-return tradeoff in most of the scenarios analyzed and maintains a relatively stable return profile for the resulting portfolio at the maturity. ...