Risk Allocation

Sharpening Shapley Allocation: from Basel 2.5 to FRTB ArXiv ID: 2511.12391 “View on arXiv” Authors: Marco Scaringi, Marco Bianchetti Abstract Risk allocation, the decomposition of a portfolio-wide risk measure into component contributions, is a fundamental problem in financial risk management due to the non-additive nature of risk measures, the layered organizational structures of financial institutions, and the range of possible allocation strategies characterized by different rationales and properties. In this work, we conduct a systematic review of the major risk allocation strategies typically used in finance, comparing their theoretical properties, practical advantages, and limitations. To this scope we set up a specific testing framework, including both simplified settings, designed to highlight basic intrinsic behaviours, and realistic financial portfolios under different risk regulations, i.e. Basel 2.5 and FRTB. Furthermore, we develop and test novel practical solutions to manage the issue of negative risk allocations and of multi-level risk allocation in the layered organizational structure of financial institutions, while preserving the additivity property. Finally, we devote particular attention to the computational aspects of risk allocation. Our results show that, in this context, the Shapley allocation strategy offers the best compromise between simplicity, mathematical properties, risk representation and computational cost. The latter is still acceptable even in the challenging case of many business units, provided that an efficient Monte Carlo simulation is employed, which offers excellent scaling and convergence properties. While our empirical applications focus on market risk, our methodological framework is fully general and applicable to other financial context such as valuation risk, liquidity risk, credit risk, and counterparty credit risk. ...

Hierarchical Risk Parity for Portfolio Allocation in the Latin American NUAM Market ArXiv ID: 2509.03712 “View on arXiv” Authors: Gonzalo Ramirez-Carrillo, David Ortiz-Mora, Alex Aguilar-Larrotta Abstract This study applies the Hierarchical Risk Parity (HRP) portfolio allocation methodology to the NUAM market, a regional holding that integrates the markets of Chile, Colombia and Peru. As one of the first empirical analyses of HRP in this newly formed Latin American context, the paper addresses a gap in the literature on portfolio construction under cross-border, emerging market conditions. HRP leverages hierarchical clustering and recursive bisection to allocate risk in a manner that is both interpretable and robust–avoiding the need to invert the covariance matrix, a common limitation in the traditional mean-variance optimization. Using daily data from 54 constituent stocks of the MSCI NUAM Index from 2019 to 2025, we compare the performance of HRP against two standard benchmarks: an equally weighted portfolio (1/N) and a maximum Sharpe ratio portfolio. Results show that while the Max Sharpe portfolio yields the highest return, the HRP portfolio delivers a smoother risk-return profile, with lower drawdowns and tracking error. These findings highlight HRP’s potential as a practical and resilient asset allocation framework for investors operating in the integrated, high-volatility markets like NUAM. ...

Finding good bets in the lottery, and why you shouldn’t take them ArXiv ID: 2507.01993 “View on arXiv” Authors: Aaron Abrams, Skip Garibaldi Abstract We give a criterion under which the expected return on a ticket for certain large lotteries is positive. In this circumstance, we use elementary portfolio analysis to show that an optimal investment strategy includes a very small allocation for such tickets. Keywords: lottery ticket, portfolio analysis, expected return, investment strategy, risk allocation, lottery tickets ...

The PEAL Method: a mathematical framework to streamline securitization structuring ArXiv ID: 2404.05372 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Securitization is a financial process where the cash flows of income-generating assets are sold to institutional investors as securities, liquidating illiquid assets. This practice presents persistent challenges due to the absence of a comprehensive mathematical framework for structuring asset-backed securities. While existing literature provides technical analysis of credit risk modeling, there remains a need for a definitive framework detailing the allocation of the inbound cash flows to the outbound positions. To fill this gap, we introduce the PEAL Method: a 10-step mathematical framework to streamline the securitization structuring across all time periods. The PEAL Method offers a rigorous and versatile approach, allowing practitioners to structure various types of securitizations, including those with complex vertical positions. By employing standardized equations, it facilitates the delineation of payment priorities and enhances risk characterization for both the asset and the liability sides throughout the securitization life cycle. In addition to its technical contributions, the PEAL Method aims to elevate industry standards by addressing longstanding challenges in securitization. By providing detailed information to investors and enabling transparent risk profile comparisons, it promotes market transparency and enables stronger regulatory oversight. In summary, the PEAL Method represents a significant advancement in securitization literature, offering a standardized framework for precision and efficiency in structuring transactions. Its adoption has the potential to drive innovation and enhance risk management practices in the securitization market. ...