Risk Premia

Dynamic allocation: extremes, tail dependence, and regime Shifts ArXiv ID: 2506.12587 “View on arXiv” Authors: Yin Luo, Sheng Wang, Javed Jussa Abstract By capturing outliers, volatility clustering, and tail dependence in the asset return distribution, we build a sophisticated model to predict the downside risk of the global financial market. We further develop a dynamic regime switching model that can forecast real-time risk regime of the market. Our GARCH-DCC-Copula risk model can significantly improve both risk- and alpha-based global tactical asset allocation strategies. Our risk regime has strong predictive power of quantitative equity factor performance, which can help equity investors to build better factor models and asset allocation managers to construct more efficient risk premia portfolios. ...

Disentangling the sources of cyber risk premia ArXiv ID: 2409.08728 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We use a methodology based on a machine learning algorithm to quantify firms’ cyber risks based on their disclosures and a dedicated cyber corpus. The model can identify paragraphs related to determined cyber-threat types and accordingly attribute several related cyber scores to the firm. The cyber scores are unrelated to other firms’ characteristics. Stocks with high cyber scores significantly outperform other stocks. The long-short cyber risk factors have positive risk premia, are robust to all factors’ benchmarks, and help price returns. Furthermore, we suggest the market does not distinguish between different types of cyber risks but instead views them as a single, aggregate cyber risk. ...

Asset management with an ESG mandate ArXiv ID: 2403.11622 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We investigate the portfolio frontier and risk premia in equilibrium when institutional investors aim to minimize the tracking error variance under an ESG score mandate. If a negative ESG premium is priced in the market, this mandate can reduce portfolio inefficiency when the return over-performance target is limited. In equilibrium, with asset managers endowed with an ESG mandate and mean-variance investors, a negative ESG premium arises. A result that is supported by empirical data. The negative ESG premium is due to the ESG constraint imposed on institutional investors and is not associated with a risk factor. ...