RMSE

American Call Options Pricing With Modular Neural Networks ArXiv ID: 2409.19706 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract An accurate valuation of American call options is critical in most financial decision making environments. However, traditional models like the Barone-Adesi Whaley (B-AW) and Binomial Option Pricing (BOP) methods fall short in handling the complexities of early exercise and market dynamics present in American options. This paper proposes a Modular Neural Network (MNN) model which aims to capture the key aspects of American options pricing. By dividing the prediction process into specialized modules, the MNN effectively models the non-linear interactions that drive American call options pricing. Experimental results indicate that the MNN model outperform both traditional models as well as a simpler Feed-forward Neural Network (FNN) across multiple stocks (AAPL, NVDA, QQQ), with significantly lower RMSE and nRMSE (by mean). These findings highlight the potential of MNNs as a powerful tool to improve the accuracy of predicting option prices. ...

Boosting Stock Price Prediction with Anticipated Macro Policy Changes ArXiv ID: 2311.06278 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Prediction of stock prices plays a significant role in aiding the decision-making of investors. Considering its importance, a growing literature has emerged trying to forecast stock prices with improved accuracy. In this study, we introduce an innovative approach for forecasting stock prices with greater accuracy. We incorporate external economic environment-related information along with stock prices. In our novel approach, we improve the performance of stock price prediction by taking into account variations due to future expected macroeconomic policy changes as investors adjust their current behavior ahead of time based on expected future macroeconomic policy changes. Furthermore, we incorporate macroeconomic variables along with historical stock prices to make predictions. Results from this strongly support the inclusion of future economic policy changes along with current macroeconomic information. We confirm the supremacy of our method over the conventional approach using several tree-based machine-learning algorithms. Results are strongly conclusive across various machine learning models. Our preferred model outperforms the conventional approach with an RMSE value of 1.61 compared to an RMSE value of 1.75 from the conventional approach. ...